UFC 195 Lawler vs. Condit: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

January 2, 2016

MGM Grand Garden Arena

Las Vegas

Main Card on PPV:

Welterweight Champion Robbie Lawler (26-10) -115 vs. Carlos Condit (30-8) -115

Robbie Lawler stormed through 2014 and bested Rory 

MacDonald in July '15 in an amazing and brutal contest. The "Ruthless" one has perfected his counter skills recently and power never dies. Rob hits big and hard though he lacks speed and sometimes takes rounds off. 

The "Natural Born Killer" suffered a bad knee injury in '14 against Tyron Woodley and then rebounded in '15 by taking out Thiago Alves and receiving a surprising title shot. Since defeating Nick Diaz for the Interim title, Condit has shown mixed results going 3-2. Even so, the striking attack from Carlos is one of the more varied and impressive in all of MMA. And its not a small thing to take "heart" into consideration when considering the comeback ability and durability of "NBK." Carlos trains with the intelligent Jackson-Wink camp and always follows game plans. Condit can attack with any of the 8 points while countering or pressing the action. The small complaint would be a lack of takedown defense but threatening off his back Carlos can still submit fools.

The power advantage easily goes to the champ but he's not as active and relies on his power. Though the odds say even, MMAFO feels this is the exact type of fighter Lawler loses to. Carlos has a smarter fight IQ and more tools to accumulate points in a contest that is destined for the judges based upon both mens never-say-die attitudes. To be perfectly honest, we believe Lawler has over-achieved in recent years and the bloom is going to come off sooner rather than later. "NBK" is a proven warrior who can frustrate while pulling away in an entertaining beginning of 2016.

*Upset Pick WINNER-Carlos Condit by Decision

Stipe Miocic (13-2) -225 vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-10, 1) +175

Arlovski has turned back the hands of time winning his last 6 attempts and climbing back into Heavyweight contention. The "Pitbull" brought back the chin from near death against Travis Browne and delivered a brutal beating on the Hawaiian. 

"Steepay" handed out one of the worst beatings of '15 against poor beloved Mark Hunt in May and possesses hard boxing, good, not great MMA wrestling, and toughness.

Sorry, as fun as it was, the Arlovski-train has got to derail and come back to reality at some point. Andrei has been through some doozies in his day and won't be able to stand up to all that Miocic can bring him in 15 minutes. Bet on the finish for Ohioan. 

WINNER-Stipe Miocic by Rd.2 TKO

Lorenz Larkin (16-4) +195 vs. Albert Tumenov (16-2) -250

The "Monsoon" has looked reborn at Welterweight destroying his last two foes and looking impressive as Hell in both. Larkin is a lightning fast striker who has only picked up speed at 170 while gaining power.

"Einstein" has won his last 4 for Zuffa with crushing boxing power and a straightforward approach. The Russian has shown cardio issues in the past.

These guys are going to gun it out and Lorenz may hit 1st but he'll suffer in a brawl. Albert has the power to put Larkin away but more likely they slug it out until the final bell.

WINNER-Albert Tumenov by Decision

Diego Brandao (20-10) +170 vs. Brian Ortega (9-0) -210

You just can't bet on Brandao. Diego comes in all bombs and explosions but he's a moron in the cage with a questionable chin.

Ortega isn't going to be passive either opting to throw high risk moves at will but should be basing his game around his submission skills. 

This is a coin flip between two crazy fighters. We have zero faith in Brandao at this point or ever in his career.

WINNER-Brian Ortega by Decision

Abel Trujillo (12-7) +110 vs. Tony Sims (12-3) -140

Trujillo beats women and should not be employed by the UFC.

Upset Pick WINNER-Abel Trujillo by Rd.1 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Michael McDonald (16-3) -550 vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5) +375

Mikey finally returns after a two year layoff to resume an exciting career that should result in a title eventually. McDonald is going to blow Masanori's doors off!

WINNER-Michael McDonald by Rd.1 TKO

Kyle Noke (22-7-1) -305 vs. Alex Morono (11-3) +235

A quick one month turnaround for the Aussie who is coming off a devastating KO win. Morono is filling in on late notice for Kelvin Gastelum and is going to be floored.

WINNER-Kyle Noke by Rd.2 TKO

Justine Kish (4-0) -270 vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4) +210

Kish is an undefeated prospect out of Black House gym. Justine comes lumbering forward with a lack of speed but a ton of power. Nina's not that great of a fighter.

WINNER-Justine Kish by Decision

Scott Holtzman (8-0) -165 vs. Drew Dober (15-7) +135

This is a prove yourself bout. Neither guy has moved the needle in our world.

WINNER-Scott Holtzman by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Dustin Poirier (18-4) +160 vs. Joe Duffy (14-1) -200

Injuries aside we finally get this intriguing fight between two stellar Lightweight prospects. Supposedly this was buried on the UFC Fight Pass Prelims as a thank you to the online supporters but still looks strange this far down on the card.

Anywho, the "People's Main Event" is going to be a blockbuster but Duffy is the real deal and MMAFO keeps predicting this guy will win the title. Poirier is a good fighter but he'll always come up short. Real talk. 

WINNER-Joe Duffy by Rd.2 Submission

Joe Soto (15-4) -115 vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-1) -115

WINNER-Joe Soto by Decision

Sheldon Westcott (9-3-1) -165 vs. Edgar Garcia (14-4) +135

WINNER-Shelton Westcott by Decision

UFC 195 Start Times

Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Preliminary Bouts on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Preliminary Bouts on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. / 3:30 p.m. PT

* When the odds are even, the challenger is the underdog. 

Rizin World Grand Prix Day 2: Picks & Prognostications

Fedor Emelianenko (34-4) vs. Jaideep Singh (2-0) [MMA]

The "Last Emperor" shall return and with him the hopes and dreams of the Pride FC era fans of a return to prominence. Fedor retired in 2012 after a 3 fight winning streak the went largely unnoticed as Russia's favorite son competed overseas. Now, some 3 years later, the 39 year old has opted to return for at the home of his greatest MMA achievements, Japan. 

Across the ring, will be Singh who has competed but twice in MMA. Though both outings were successful, they were 2 years apart and do not amount to much experience in MMA. Jaideep has competed as a kickboxer for 9 years with a 40-10-1 record. "Heart" lost his final 3 kickboxing bouts the last via TKO. 

Now, the greatest MMA fighter of all time steps through the ropes once again against an unproven man who is 11 years his junior. Here's the thing, this is Fedor's world and he should murder this green veteran in but a single round. We have zero idea how the reclusive Emelianenko will look or how he has been training in his absence, but that is why the MMA world will be tuning in. Not to look on in anticipation to see who might win, but how the "Last Emperor" looks in modern times. If the MMA Gods have any semblance of honor, Fedor annihilates the world in 2016 and retires UFC Heavyweight Champion!

WINNER-Fedor Emelianenko by Rd.1 Submission

Kron Gracie (1-0) vs. Asen Yamamoto (0-0) [MMA]

The youngest son of Jiu-Jitsu legend Rickson Gracie is making his 2nd foray into MMA after having won his debut last year via Armbar. Kron has amasses grappling accolades since 2005 and won the prestigious ADCC Wrestling Championship in 2013. Gracie is a Featherweight who is facing a complete unknown in Yamamoto who has no doubt been brought in to lose. Oh, how MMAFO misses the old Pride FC matchmaking! 

What we do know is that Asen is a wrestler who trained under his Uncle Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto, and hopes to make the Olympic wrestling team in '16.

WINNER-Kron Gracie by Rd.1 Submission

Jerome LeBanner (4-2-1) vs. Baruto Kaito (0-0) [Kickboxing]

LeBanner has competed in 106 professional kickboxing bouts and has far too many accolades to name here.. The Frenchman will look to deploy the vaunted "Golden Left" in style and then return to professional wrestling.

Baruto "Fatty Fat Fat" is a sumo practitioner who is about to get embarrassed.

WINNER-Jerome LeBanner by Rd.1 TKO

Andy Souwer (0-0) vs. Yuichiro Nagashima (4-2) [MMA]

Souwer is known as the "Ironman of Kickboxing" and is set to try his hand at MMA against the colorful "Jienotsu"who is guaranteed to stand in front of Andy to his detriment.

WINNER-Andy Souwer by Decision

Bob Sapp (11-18-1) vs. Taro Akebono (0-4) [Rematch]

Oh Jesus Christ in a hammock. Two of the all time WORST MMA fighters clash in a meeting of mass proportions. 

Bob is a giant horrible piece of human shit who has taken money from MMA promoters and then threw his fights in the most obvious and disgusting of ways. Sapp is just a large whore who will literally do anything for money. He is a sad, sad man, lost in his own gimmick who cannot tell the difference between reality and his fantasies anymore. Sapp has lost 12 MMA "fights" in a row and lost 13 of his last 14 kickboxing bouts. And he sucks.

Nobody is sure exactly what the rules will be here but most likely its basically a kickboxing bout destined to humiliate the participants. The return of the "Freak Fight" has come.

WINNER-Bob Sapp by Rd.1 TKO

Gabrielle Garcia (0-0) vs. Seini Draughn (0-0) [MMA]

"Gabi" is the highest level of Jiu-Jitsu artist in the world and is already in the IBJJF Hall of Fame! Garcia is a physical specimen who at 6'2" once weighed in at around 240 lbs! The Brazilian has slimmed down to just under 200 lbs. for this debut and she has crazy, arm snapping power and we have no idea how her striking will be. 

"Lei'd Tapa" is a professional wrestler who is just going to be merked by Garcia.

WINNER-Gabrielle Garcia by Rd.1 Submission

Brennan Ward (12-3) vs. Ken Hasegawa (10-0-1)

"Irish" Ward is a Bellator veteran (8-3) on a 3 fight winning streak and was given this opportunity to compete for Rizin in a Scott Coker special. As you might expect from the heritage, Brennan is a boxer primarily but he is an aggressive finisher who has only heard the judges call a single time in his career.

The undefeated Hasegawa is a DEEP fighter who normally competes at Heavyweight so we're not sure what the rules are here as Ken faces Ward who normally competes at Welterweight. A lot of questions go into this Rizin debut event.

WINNER-Brennan Ward?

Rena Kubota (0-0) vs. Jleana Valentino (0-0)

MMAFO has been awaiting the Jleana the "Italian Lass" to make her MMA debut for some time. Valentino is a very aggressive kickboxer with a myriad of kicks in her game and strong hands. She also has that Sinead O'Connor thing going on which works for her. 

Rena is also a stunning kickboxer and despite what you may think, we believe this is a MMA bout. Who cares?

MMAFO is just looking forward to this moment and hoping for multiple wardrobe malfunctions.

WINNER-Everyone!

Takeru will also face Yang Ming in a K-1 Boxing match and a MMA bout between Soo Chul Kim and Maike Linhares may be taking place as well. The thing about Japanese MMA is that its a free-for-all. We know very little about the rules save there will be different rules for almost every bout and the 10 minute 1st round returns but only for the men (sexist). More fights may be added and some dropped along the way but that's why Japanese MMA is so fun isn't it?

Rizin World Grand Prix Day 1: Picks & Prognostications

Kazushi Sakuraba (26-16-2) vs. Shinya Aoki (38-6)

The "Gracie Hunter," Japanese legend, and one of MMAFO's favorite fighters of all time, Kazushi Sakuraba, is returning to MMA action for the 1st time in 4 years! There is nothing this 1st ballot Hall of Famer would not due for his homeland and is competing at the age of 46 to help the new fledgling Japanese MMA promotion succeed. Sakuraba has had 44 professional bouts and the wars back in Pride FC from 2001 to 2005 were absolutely brutal as the 160 lb. wrestler would fight all the way up at Heavyweight with complete abandon for his safety. Kazushi is a famed grappler but at this time in his life, he is just seeking to pass the torch to a lil' shit of a guy who has an enormous lack of respect for opponents in Aoki. 

Shinya was the heir apparent to Sakuraba 5 years ago, and though he has continued to dominate in Japan, the "Tobikan Judan" has never committed to facing the best in the world instead opting to stay in his comfort zone in the far East. A far cry from the devil may care approach of the far superior Kazushi. Even so, Shinya has been a highly successful MMA fighter and is currently the best Japan has to offer the world.

There is nothing left to prove for Kazushi Sakuraba and this is hopefully the opportunity he has needed to properly retire from the sport he helped create so long ago. Aoki no doubt wins this contest but that is not the point. We are here to celebrate Kazushi Sakuraba's life and career!

WINNER-Shinya Aoki by Decision

Rizin Heavyweight Grand Prix Opening Round

Satoshi Ishii (14-4-1) vs. Jiri Prochazka (14-2-1)

Once upon a time, Ishii could do no wrong winning Olympic gold in Judo and becoming a national star in Japan. Satoshi then moved into MMA where he faced the retiring legend Hidehiko Yoshida to signify Ishii was the future and give a proper send off to then man who proceeded in winning Olympic gold in the same sport years earlier. Then reality set in. Anytime Satoshi fought an opponent of note, he lost. Ishii has amassed a decent record fight tomato cans but has just never crossed over into that elite status of his predecessors. 

"Denisa" has won 8 straight fights and is a notable striker from the Czech Republic. Jiri has finished every single opponent he has faced in MMA with his creative striking style.

WINNER-Satoshi Ishii by Decision


Goran Reljic (15-5) vs. Vadim Nemkov (3-0)

The "Croation Ghost" is coming off his 1st KO loss and looking to rebound. Reljic has a pretty decent all around game.

Vadim is a 3-time national sambo champion who has never let an opponent out of the initial round.

There is something to this Nemkov kid. There is promise there and we think he takes a hard fought win over the game Goran on the cards in one of the closest bouts for Rizin's two cards.

Upset Pick WINNER-Vadim Nemkov by Decision

Teodoras Aukstuolis (7-2) vs. Bruno Cappelozza (7-3)

Teo is a Lithuanian Judoka who has competed in wrestling, combat sambo, and is now journeying into MMA. Watch for this kids slams.

Bruno is the Jungle Fight champion and loves to bring the action.

Upset Pick WINNER-Teodoras Aukstuolis by Decision

Muhammed Lawal (16-4) vs. Brett McDermott (5-2)

"King Mo" crosses the Earth to return to Japan where he cut his teeth in the sport some 6 years ago. Now Lawal is a successful fighter on a 4 fight winning streak bouncing between Heavy and Light Heavyweight. "Mo" has always had the wrestling chops and sometimes shows some striking skills while pretending to be Roy Jones Jr. 

The "Spartan" fights out of Britian's BAMMA promotion and is a hard hitter who will simply be out wrestled for the duration.

WINNER-Muhammed Lawal by Decision

Rizin Heavyweight Grand Prix Reserve Bout

Valentin Moldavsky (2-0) vs. Yuta Uchida (0-0)

WINNER-Valentin Moldavsky

Feature Bouts

Tsuyoshi Kosaka (26-18-2) vs. James Thompson (20-15)

"Colossus" has admitted he only trained 2 days for this bout after pulling his hamstring in an unsuccessful fight against Bobby Lashley in November at Bellator. James is a big boy with some power (obviously) but he has been (T)KO'd 12 times in his career and he's a terrible fighter. 

"TK" is a well respected fighter who has competed against some of the best in the world in his day. Unfortunately, his day was 9 goddamn years ago! Kosaka is now 46 and we liked him quite a bit back in Pride FC so we are just hoping he is not injured here.

WINNER-James Thompson by Rd.1 TKO

Hiroyuki Takaya (20-11-2) vs. Daiki Hata (17-9-7)

WINNER-"Streetfight Bancho"

Hideo Tokoro (32-28-2) vs. Kizaemon Saiga (2-0)

Tokoro may be on a 3 fight skid, but he did put up a hell of a performance in his last outing against LC Davis which is one of MMAFO's 2015 "Fights of the Year." Hideo has experience all over the world but relies upon his submission skills and has been stopped quite a bit in his career.

Saiga is very new to the game and at 26 years of age, he's coming into his prime. "Kiz" is a K-1 Max fighter who is known for being married to a celebrity lady in Japan.

WINNER-Hideo Tokoro by Decision

AJ Matthews (8-3) vs. Anatoly Tokov (21-2)

The "Mercenary" has gone 4-2 in Bellator and is a striker by trade.

The Russian has won 13 in a row with 17 finishes. Anatoly is an aggressive fighter in the same vein as Mr. Emelianenko even with the slick submissions and heavy ass hands. This is a good step forward for Tokov as he looks to make noise in the game.

WINNER-Anatoly Tokov by Decision

Carlos Toyota (6-7-1) vs. Kirill Sidelnikov (7-4)

"Baby Fedor" never amounted to much but Fedor signing with Rizin gets Kirill another payday. 

is a 3rd generation Japanese Brazilian who has a pretty piss poor record if he doesn't hurt you early. Still, we think he throttles the hapless Sidelnikov.

Upset Pick WINNER-Carlos Toyota by Rd.1 TKO

Mixed Rules Bouts

Kazuyuki Miyata (14-9) vs. Hinta Watanabe (0-0)

Akiyo Nishiura (13-8-1) vs. Kawabe Hiroya (0-0)

Yuki Motoya (15-4) vs. Felipe Efrain (9-2)

UFC on Fox 17 Results: RDA Retains & Nate Diaz Impresses!

Fox Main Card Results

Rafael dos Anjos TKO’d Donald Cerrone with a barrage of Punches at 1:06 of the opening round to retain his Lightweight title.

Well, it went worse than expected for the “Cowboy.” RDA came out strong early looking to capitalize on Cerrone’s notorious slow starts and landed hard punches that immediately hurt Donald. The Brazilian then landed horrific body shots that dropped Cerrone from which he could not recover. We hated to say it, but “Cowboy” just can’t win the “big one.” RDA looked like a monster and the steroid talk should officially cease. 

It was a rough one to watch for Cerrone fans but he’ll be back with more entertaining fights in the future.

RDA now moves into the Conor McGregor lottery as the Featherweight king contemplates a move up to challenge for more gold.

Alistair Overeem TKO’d Junior dos Santos via Punches at 4:43 of the 2nd round.

JDS did not show up for this fight. “Cigano” looked much smaller than normal and seemed to have what MMAFO has termed “old man muscles” where you begin to see a fighter fade. Overeem used movement but ducked his head dangerously down multiple times but JDS just could not pull the trigger and only showed one moment of his former self in a nice boxing flurry. Otherwise, “Uber-eem” controlled the bout until he landed a beautiful left hook that cleaned out JDS from reality. 

JDS may be done folks. He’s a nice fella but looked awful here and we believe the wars have finally caught up with him. We also hate to point this out, but with all the PED questions surrounding RDA, it was JDS who looked like a completely different fighter.

The “Demolition Man” is now in the best shape since entering the UFC. Alistair keeps winning with the Jackson-Wink camp behind him and utilizing smart game plans. 

Nate Diaz defeated Michael Johnson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) in an explosive fun fight!

The “People’s Main Event” lived up to all the hype as Diaz and Johnson threw down for the full 15 minutes of non-stop and entertaining action. The Blackzilian started strong but as Diaz found the mark with his long jab, Michael could no longer find the distance as Nate picked him apart with stellar boxing while taunting Johnson by pointing and laughing at his face after strikes, and delivering the now famous “Stockton slap” of embarrassment. Michael found some success with leg kicks early but could not hang with the momentum of Diaz who only improved as the fight went on. It was one of the best fights of the year and highly entertaining and we hope Vegas has not learned the lesson of making Nate a giant underdog in any contest. MMAFO won a lot of money and would like to thank the 209’s Nate Diaz for the X-Mas money! “Fight of the Night”

Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeated Randa Markos via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

Randa was game as always but just couldn’t match the accuracy of the Pole. Karolina looked calm and impressive tonight and did so while continuing to look absolutely beautiful. We are not trying to trivialize this athlete or reduce female sports to a beauty contest, but she is stunning. A possible star in the making.

FOX Sports 1 Prelims

Charles Oliveira submitted Myles Jury by Guillotine Choke at 3:05 of the very 1st round.

Yup, we stand by our assessment that Jury is highly overrated. That’s about all you need to know here.

“Do Bronx” missed weight for about the 80th time in his career and something must be done. The UFC has set a precedent in forcing fellow unprofessional fighters Kelvin Gastelum and John Lineker up in weight and the same should apply here. 

Nate Marquardt Upset C.B. Dollaway via KO (Punch) at 0:28 of the 2nd round!

Oh CB you beautiful bastard. Dollaway walked, hands down, chin up, into destruction at the hand of the ancient Marquardt for a shocking upset! At this stage in his so called development, this is nothing short of humiliating for CB who just has one of the worst fight IQ’s in the game today. 

Old Nate survives another day and this is the time to retire sir. More likely, Marquardt thinks Jesus wants him to win the title and he’ll march on like a shop worn fool.

Valentina Shevchenko defeated Sarah Kaufman by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28).

Sarah was just a step slow in facing newcomer Valentina but as always, Kaufman didn’t go down without a fight. Its a shame for “Sweet Sarah” but now Shevchenko can muss up the rankings and add some excitement to the division.

Tamdan McCrory tapped Josh Samman via Triangle Choke at 4:10 of the 3rd round.

That old “Barncat” was just too much for Samman and secured a nice finish in a fight he was clearly winning. Don’t sleep on this tough cat as we see him surprising more fighters and fans in the future.

Nik Lentz defeated Danny Castillo by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27).

This wasn’t as close as the judges cards would have you believe. Lentz did what he do and controlled the bout for most of the evening. This is 4 losses in a row for Castillo who may be heading for the exit. 

We dare the overrated excuse making BJ Penn to come out of retirement and face Nik the “lyrical genius.”

Cole Miller versus Jim Alers was declared a No-Contest at 1:34 of Round 2 via an accidental eye-poke.

Goddamn reaching out with fingers extended yet again. Alers was going to lose this and needed a way out. Terrible.

UFC Fight Pass Prelims

Kamaru Usman defeated Leon Edwards via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 29-28).

Vicente Luque submitted Hayder Hassan by Anaconda Choke at 2:13 of the opening frame. “Submission of the Night”

Francis Ngannou KO’d Luis Henrique with a vicious Uppercut at 2:53 of the 2nd round to make a successful Heavyweight debut.

Good sweet Jesus that was an uppercut from hell! Ngannou is a massive human being and delivering a punch like that will murder anyone in the division. Of course, he’s got a long way to go to put together a full MMA game but goddamn he has power! “KO of the Night”

8-4 on the picks ya'll.

UFC on Fox 17 Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

December 19, 2015

Amway Center

Orlando, Florida

Main Card on FOX:

Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos -190 (24-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (28-6,1) + 155 [Rematch]

These two warriors met before without the belt on the line in ’13 as the now champ won a clear decision. Since, RDA lost a decision to the always injured Khabib Nurmagomedov before running off a 4 fight winning streak including taking the gold from overrated Anthony Pettis last March. King’s MMA have Anjos running on all cylinders and has never looked more comfortable, or powerful, striking wise and his grappling is always good. 

“Cowboy” has won 8 straight since he loss to RDA honing his kickboxing skills and fighting as much as possible on as little notice as possible. Cerrone has been in title fights before and always fallen short. 

“Cowboy” is always game but he’s going to face the same problems that plagued him in the previous meeting. Donald starts slow, has trouble with RDA’s takedown attempts, and we believe fears the big moment. Sacrilege we know, and we hope we are wrong as Cerrone fans, but Anjos has the perfect skill set to thwart the “Cowboy” and make it a long rough fight.

WINNER-Rafael dos Anjos by Decision

Junior dos Santos (17-3) -250 vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14, 1) +195

This has been a fight in the making for years. Long ago “Ubereem” was calling JDS’s name and after all this time, the bout comes due. Overeem is out of his mind wanting this fight. JDS is a far superior striker and if he efforts against Cain Velasquez and Stipe Miocic taught us anything, “Cigano” has true heart and a strong chin. Alistair does not have a chin. The “Demolition Man” has been stopped with hands 9 goddamn times in his career (!) and isn’t the smartest fighter. JDS has better power, stamina, skills, oh hell, JDS is going to destroy Overeem with prejudice.

WINNER-Junior dos Santos By Rd.2 TKO

Michael Johnson (16-9) -400 vs. Nate Diaz (17-10) +325

The “People’s Main Event” of the weekend (what up Ariel Helwani)! The men already got into a scuffle after the weigh-ins in the lobby as Tamdan McCrory filmed the altercation. MMAFO cannot wait for this fight!

The 209er has lost 3 of 4 but it was to a murderer’s row the last of which is the current Lightweight Champion and headlining tonight’s card, Rafael dos Anjos. We all know the brothers Diaz are tough as hell, sometimes to a fault, but they always bring game. Nate actually looks like he’s been training hard as he came into the weigh-ins looking ripped and ornery as ever.

The “Menace” got jobbed by the judges last out against Beneil Dariush snapping a solid 4 fight run. Mike is a threatening striker from the Blackzilians who has enough wrestling to keep people honest.

Oh come on now, you think MMAFO is not picking Diaz? Have you been here before? We ride with Nate in what is destined to be a slobber knocker of a fight with lots of in cage trash talk and bravado. Its gonna be so fun. Nate works his better all around game and marks up MJ en route to a late stoppage.

Upset Pick WINNER-Nate Diaz by Rd.3 Submission

Randa Markos (5-2) -200 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0) +160

Ooh, this is gonna be a good one. The Canadian Tristar fighter is an underrated fighter who is game everywhere the fight could take place. Markos is a natural fighter with a strong right hand and ability to scramble out of grappling moments where she is weakest.

The undefeated Pole is making her UFC debut as a striker who also tries to avoid the ground. “KK” is good at getting back to her feet 

This will be close and highly contested but we like Markos to be smarter inside the fence winning at least 2 of 3 and continuing to gain much needed experience.

WINNER-Randa Markos by Decision

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Charles Oliveira (20-5, 1) +145 vs. Myles Jury (15-1) -175

“Do Bronx” missed weight and had no reason as to why which is always trouble coming into a bout. It doesn’t help that Oliveira is coming off that never before seen throat injury in the cage but Charles is a Jiu-Jitsu ace who is vicious standing and always looking to take things down no matter the position.

Jury has switched from the Alliance Camp to the Power MMA camp while making his debut here at Featherweight. Myles is a competent boxer but has never shown any fantastic ability that was thrust upon him coming off TUF 15. The 27 year old still finds ways to get things done being pretty skilled everywhere but not overwhelming. 

If not for the injury and missing weight problems, we’d be picking Oliveira with confidence. Things being how they are, we'll stay with "Do Bronx" with a little trepidation. Charles still has far more ways to win and we've just never seen the "talent" in "Fury."

Upset Pick WINNER-Charles Oliveira by Decision

C.B. Dollaway (15-7) -450 vs. Nate Marquardt (33-15-2) +325

Joe’s boy, the feared “Doberman,” is back after dropping his last 2 fights to Michael Bisping and Lyoto Machida after dreams of grandeur. “Cber" is a part-time striker and mainly a wrestler with the speed of a paraplegic sloth.

Marquardt is a shell of his former self. It seems like the TRT stint ruined the end of his career as he slimes in on a 1-5 run and was brutally stopped in 3 of those losses. Nate the “So-So” is every bit of 36 and is just cashing checks at this point.

Oh this is going to be ugly. You have to side with Dollaway here as he could out-walk Nate around the cage punching at times, and waiting to get the takedown for the dry hump.

WINNER-CB Dollaway by Decision

Sarah Kaufman (17-3) -155 vs. Valentina Shevchenko (9-1) +125

“Sweet” Sarah has trouble booking opponents but has been at the most elite level of women’s Bantamweight for the last 6 years! Kaufman is a technical striker with will power though not a ton of speed or variance to her offense.

The “Bullet” has won 4 in a row and was in training camp though she is taking this fight on short notice. The Peruvian is nasty in the clinch with knees and prefers to counter.

Sarah likes to press opponents against the cage for dirty boxing but that is a bad idea here. Kaufman will need all of her wrist fighting skills and stamina to grind through a tough slog against a very tough newcomer. We just believe Valentia will be must faster and fluid which will be the difference here.

Upset Pick WINNER-Valentia Shevchenko by Decision

Josh Samman (12-2) -210 vs. Tamdan McCrory (13-3) +170

Who knew Samman was such a cool dude? Josh has really upped his stock this year winning 4 in a row and becoming a good writer over at Bloody Elbow.com and UFC.com. Samman is a TUF 17 grad and has earned the stoppage in 11 of his 12 career wins and is a capable striker with newly minted kicks in his arsenal.

The “Barncat” left a title fight on the table at Bellator to return to the UFC after a 5 year semi-retirement. Tamdan is as tenacious as his nickname and will happily engage in a brawl.

McCrory has sneaky power but Samman has better technique and should hold a notable power advantage. Josh wins this but not without having to work for it.

WINNER-Josh Samman by Decision

Nik Lentz (25-7-2) -135 vs. Danny Castillo (17-9) +105

This is a grinder’s war. “Last Call” is about as hard a worker as they come but he’s now 36 and has lost his last 3 bouts. Dan is basically pretty good striking, but quite slow and prefers to lay in guard for the full 15.

Lentz has lost 2 of his last 3 but they were to Chad Mendes and Charles Oliveira. The “Carney” is quite aggressive and doesn’t stop attacking. Nik is just too tough for most men and wins this on the canvas in a long, drawn out fight.

* Castillo made weight on his 2nd attempt and how odd is it to see Lentz with a whole new look trying to be interesting?

WINNER-Nik Lentz by Decision

Cole Miller (21-9) +100 vs. Jim Alers (13-2) -120

Alers had won 9 straight until he faced Chas Skelly last and was blasted out in controversial fashion with a mere second left on the clock. Even so, the “Beast” is primarily a grappler who allows himself to get hit far too often.d

Miller, has been quite inactive in the last few years only fighting twice for a 1-1 record. ATT’s “Magrinho” is also a submission fighter who has some nasty elbows and is aggressive looking for the finish. 

Cole’s long arms should put a stiff jab in Jim’s face and even if on his back, Miller can be dangerous. Alers will be there for the duration but Cole is angrier and craftier.

Upset Pick WINNER-Cole Miller by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Leon Edwards (10-2) +230 vs. Kamaru Usman (6-1) -300

The Brit is 2-1 for Zuffa and is a technique driven kickboxer with some grappling skills. Leon does tend to be passive.

The Blackzilian will have strength on Edwards and is riding a 5 fight winning streak. Kamaru can get a good scramble going and grappling is the game.

Edwards should have the modus operandi to win here standing, but we think Usman just bull rushes forward getting the takedown and if he can get the proper top position, he can deliver serious G&P and at least take this on points.

Upset Pick WINNER-Kamaru Usman by Decision 

Hader Hassan (6-2) +105 vs. Vicente Luque (7-5-1) -135 [Rematch (sort of)]

Hassan won the previous meeting during TUF 21 in a very close match that is considered “amateur.” Neither man means a whole lot for the future but Vicente should be able to control this on the ground getting a bit of vengeance that nobody else cares about.

WINNER-Vicente Luque by Decision

Luiz Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (8-1) +110 vs. Francis Ngannou (5-1) -140

“KLB” is the grappler in this bout for newly minted UFC Heavyweights. Luiz has won 6 straight and 4 by finish.

The Frenchman is a more natural athlete but far greener as well. 

It’s debuting Heavies. Flip a coin. Ngannou is absolutely massive btw.

WINNER-Francis Ngannou by Rd.1 TKO

UFC on FOX 17 Start Times:
Main Card on FOX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT

Art by DOMENICO NEZITI