UFC 78 Validation Breakdown

Many are talking about the lack of star power on this Pay Per Noob* event, but this is one of the most competitive and hardest to predict cards of the year. Even the odds makers have kept things close for most of the fights and many blogs are afraid to make true picks. We are not most blogs.

Rashad "Sugar" Evans 15-0-1 vs Michael "The Count" Bisping 15-0 As the old saying goes, an "O" has to go. One of these fighters is going to lose that undefeated streak. Rashad is coming off the Tito Ortiz loss, er I mean Draw, where Tito's cheating cost him a fight when Rashad looked like a deer in headlights. Now, Rashad is cockier and better after having faced a notable opponent and he can really add the confidence he needs. Bisping is coming off his controversial Split-Decision win over Matt Hamill in which the Internet world cried foul (learn to score fights people Bisping won). Both are looking for "Validation" (hey that's the name of the event!) and one will achieve it. Rashad is the wrestler that plagued Mike so much in his last fight only with a better gas tank and stand up skills. Evans takes the fight to the floor after being rocked on the feet and from there, he pounds out the old fashioned victory. I just can't see Mike getting the submission on the floor though he is good at getting back to the feet. Rashad knows this and and floor is where the fight is won, so he is training to stay on top at all costs.

WINNER-Rashad Evans by decision

"The Planet" Houston Alexander 8-1 vs Thiago Silva 11-0 I don't like this fight between two great exciting up and comers for Silva. Houston has already proved he is so strong and deadly in the clinch where Thiago likes to fight. Silva just doesn't have the power to contend with the barrage attack of Alexander. If, and that's a big if, Thiago can take the fight to the mat, he's got a far better chance of winning with his ju jitsu blackbelt against a stand up fighter who has been in the Octagon for barely over 2 minutes in 2 fights. However, the Chute Boxe member loves and wants to strike on the feet but he doesn't have the one punch power of his opponent though he does have 9 KO's, they are accumulative in nature.

WINNER-Houston (I can't believe I'm picking against my boy)

Spencer "King" Fisher 21-3 vs Frankie "The Answer" Edgar 7-0 Nobody is tougher than the King but Frankie is an explosive super quick and agile wrestler who can just maul people on the mat before they know what happened. Once again, Fisher is so tough and has fought the best and is more well rounded, its just that impressive ground expertise of Frank that scares me. But my rule is go with the percentages, and Spence just has so many more ways to pull out the win that you have to lean (barely) in his favor. The King is also close to a title shot and that has to motivate him in this fight. A cut for the always bleeding Fisher is also a concern but always go Irish when unsure.

WINNER-Spencer Fisher by ??????????

Karo "The Heat" Parisyan 25-4 vs Ryo Chonan 14-7 The Heat welcomes Pride FC alum Ryo to the UFC with his ever growing anger at not receiving his due and once promised title shot. Ryo holds a win over Anderson Silva which he will always be remembered for, but is going to be thrown around like Dana throws around curses. Karo's got this one and in impressive fashion.

WINNER-Karo by judo chop

Ed "Short Fuse" Herman 15-4 vs Joe Doerksen 39-10 Bit of a discrepancy in number of fights here but before I forget, I told you Herman would get off the snide in '07 and he is back in the Middleweight picture. Joe comes in as a last minute replacement and is a submission machine who has fought everyone! His experience is immense and could really pull off a big upset here. He was riding a 7 fight win streak before he ran into the tank known as Paulo Filho, but he always struggles with top tier fighters. This is Herman's chance to become mentioned in the top tier of Middleweights, oh and by the way, Doerksen beat Herman in 2004 so revenge will definitely be on his mind.

WINNER-Ed Herman by redemption!

Chris "Lights Out" Lytle 34-14-4 vs Thiago Alves 18-4 After a good performance/loss to Matt Hughes, Lytle has bounced back with a couple wins and is looking to get his 18th submission win. That's how he has to do it because Alves with take him apart on the feet. Who imposes their will takes this fight. The American Top Team member spoils the day for Chris with great sprawl and greater hand speed.

WINNER-Thiago Alves by decision

Joe Lauzon 14-3 vs Jason Reinhardt 18-0 Jason has 12 1st round submissions to his cred! Amazing but Joey isn't exactly a slouch on the floor either. Joe made a name for himself KOing Jens Pulver and then doing well on The Ultimate Fighter. Jason has been fighting on smaller shows for a while so he is a bit of an unknown but the little fella normally fights at 135 lbs.! His record is sick with no fight ever getting past the 2nd round but they are not against any fighter worth mentioning. Lauzon is going to use his reach to bitch slap this guy down to the WEC where he could be competitive.

WINNER-Joe Lauzon by submission

Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio 14-5 vs Luke Caudillo 15-8 Marcus known for being the most recent man to defeat Takanori Gomi went on to lose his next 3 fights on close decisions. He's due for a win against a guy who likes to strike and is susceptible to submissions which is Aurelio's game.

WINNER-Maximus by submission (I hope) but probably decision

Akihiro Gono 27-12-7 vs Tamdan McCrory 10-0 Welcome the highly entertaining on ring entrances alone, Akihiro Gono to the UFC everyone. The Pride FC veteran and Roy Jones Jr. super fan is known for being flashy and trains with 2006 Middleweight Grand Prix winner Kazuo Misaki. I have a seldom needed rule where I do not pick fighters with the nickname the "Barncat" to win, so Tamdan you're out.

WINNER-Gono by decision and flare

This PPV is ridiculous as far as close fights to pick are concerned and is really a pretty solid card top to bottom. I'm not expecting to do well on my picks this time but I won't cower away like everyone else seems to be doing.

*Pay Per Noob is in reference to the Pay Per View being most interesting to "Noobs" or people who know little about MMA but watch the Ultimate Fighter and thus recognize the main event names. An inside joke for the UG (slaps head).