Thursday, August 27, 2009

UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira Nose Picking

The UFC finally comes to Portland, Oregon, which just happens to be Mr. Couture's hometown. We see 2 former UFC Heavyweight Champions who are each legends, a strikers war with another Silva and the inconsistent Jardine, the return of a steroid user (Leben), the potential contenders to Anderson Silva's throne, quite a few up and coming fighters, and lots o' Heavyweights stacking an interesting card.

PPV
Heavyweight bout:
Randy Couture vs. Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira Can you believe people are asking if the 33 year old "Minotauro" is finished instead of the 46 year old "Captain America?" A "dream bout" comes true and it doesn't even seem too late with both men coming into the fight in great condition. Randy is heralded for being old in a young man's game and doing OK against Brock Lesnar. "Big Nog" was Mr. Durable until a staff riddled performance made everyone question if he is going the way of fellow Pride veteran Wanderlei Silva. I am growing tired of the obnoxious love of "The Natural" who is a wife divorcing, money hungry, Team Quest ditching, somewhat overrated fighter, so my vision may be a bit skewed on this one. Still, Randy has 2 career submissions while Nog has 20. 20 people(!) though Couture hasn't been tapped since 2002. Even with the crowd in his corner, I don't see Tony being stupid enough to try a clinch game fight with Randy, instead opting to use his boxing skills to keep Couture at bay, and possibly taking a shot at submitting him on the floor. If Rodrigo is taken down I don't think it will be a problem, and maybe an advantage, for the Jiu-Jitsu genius. This may all be Pride FC love bias.**UPDATE-After more researching and finding out Nog was KO'd more than once in training for this fight, and his own camp saying things look bad, I am changing my pick to sadness. Damn it.
WINNER-Randall Couture by decision
Light Heavyweight bout:
Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva An intriguing fight on paper, but my only worry is the "Dean's" chin status. He's gotten caught by Houston Alexander and Wanderlei Silva but went the distance against Rampage in his last bout though he was dropped a couple of times. He could get caught again but the percentages tell me Thiago has exposed his weakness in his last bout with now Champion Lyoto Machida by being too aggressive and possibly having a suspect chin of his own. Lettuce not forget Keith has the best camp in the business (Greg Jackson Fighting) who will not doubt arm him with a killer game plan.
WINNER-The Dean Of Mean by exciting decision
Middleweight bout:
Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt How does Leben, an average fighter who is coming off a steroid suspension, deserve a spot on the PPV. Its just baffles me. Anywho, we know what the "Crippler" is all about but its Jake who everyone is really watching. An "upside" prospect from the Xtreme Couture camp, many people think he can be the real deal. I don't see his striking doing much to Leben's granite chin, and I'm not even sure wrestling will be a factor in this bout. Unfortunately, Chris has the advantage and if he doesn't shut down Rosholt, expect a judges nod in his direction.
WINNER-Chris Leben by who cares?
Middleweight bout:
Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia Everyone is awe struck by the "Submission Magician" Maia and rightly so, but Nate is an elite specimen who can strike much, much better and has a little something called cardio which remains quite questionable with Demian. Also, I don't like how slow Maia throws his strikes and I think that leads to his undoing as the relentless Marquardt avoids the ground (unless he is insane) and picks apart Wanderlei's protege before stopping him completely.
UPSET PICK WINNER-Nate Marquardt by turning out the lights
Light Heavyweight bout:
Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski Dontcha hate it when 2 really good personalities collide in a fight? Me either. This fight is going to be explosive and fun. Sure Krzysztof has a decent all-around game, but Vera's striking is at another level. On the floor, Brandon hasn't exactly wow'd me but he also claims to be back on his game after getting cocky and lax on his training. The "Polish Experiment" takes yet another fight on short notice (5 weeks) but it has served him well garnering a 3-0 record in the UFC. Krzys says he'll eat a barrage of punches to land a good hard shot and that is just not a good plan.
WINNER-"The Truth" by points

Prelims
Middleweight bout:
Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson This is the hardest fight to pick on the entire UFC 102 card. Herman has a lot of talent but is inconsistent and generally fails against upper tier fighters. The "A-Train" is a KO specialist with solid wrestling but only has 5 professional fights to Ed's 22 and a career spent learning with Team Quest. Still, I'll take the up and comer over the "Journeyman" which is a label for eventual disaster.
WINNER-Aaron Simpson by tough decision
Heavyweight bout:
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer Ummm, Chris is in trouble. "Napao" is going to curb stomp him in the most lop-sided bout of the evening. This won't last long.
WINNER-Napao by TKO Rd.1
Heavyweight bout:
Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow I see Mikey winning a boring fight here though it won't be close on the judges card. Russow is a much better wrestler and Justin isn't a very good fighter anyway, but he also lacks offense instead opting to lay and pray in his fights. Russow won't allow that outworking him at every turn. By the way, McCully is a total douchebag and even his homo-erotic friendship with Tito Ortiz and Kendall Grove won't save his job in the UFC after this bout.
WINNER-Mike Russow by decision
Heavyweight bout:
Tim Hague vs. Todd Duffee I like the cut of Tim's jib, his journey to the UFC, and his big upset of an overconfident Patrick Barry in his debut. Unfortunately, the Tim Sylvia clone is about to meet ATT's beast of a fighter in Todd. The "Duff Man" is a freestyle fighter who by the way knocks the crap outta people. Should be a decently close fight but expect Todd to get the better striking his way to a debut win. (Remember my rule: "Never pick the fighter making his debut.")
WINNER-Duff Man by TKO Rd.3
Middleweight bout:
Nick Catone vs. Mark Muñoz Marky Mark looks waaay better dropping down to Middleweight and that spells trouble for Catone. Both are good wrestlers, but the Philippine is better pretty much wherever the fight goes.
WINNER-"The Philippine Wrecking Machine" by TKO Rd.2
Lightweight bout:
Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham Dunham fights without Peanut against a durable Jiu-Jitsu guy who is becoming a decent striker thanks to his boys over at ATT. Evan is supposed Jiu-Jistsu fella as well, but he also leaves himself open to take strikes. However, according to the experts and the Xtreme Couture camp, this kid is the next small thing and I'll just plead ignorance for now.
WINNER-Dunham by decision

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