UFC On Versus 5 Hardy vs Lytle: Picks & Prognostications

UFC on Versus 5: Hardy vs. Lytle

August 14, 2011
The Bradley Center
Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Main Bouts:
Dan Hardy (23-9) [-102] vs. Chris Lytle (30-18-5) [-108]

This bout was put together for the fans. Both men who are exciting stand up fighters in their own rights, have all but guaranteed to stand eye to eye and throw bombs until somebody falls. The "Outlaw" has hit a disastrous run losing his last 3 a decision loss to champion GSP, a brutal KO loss to Carlos Condit, and a 15 minute sleep inducing dry hump loss to Anthony Johnson proving his inability to handle any wrestling. "Lights Out" can fight and fight well anywhere the fight goes but has embraced the role of the exciting fighter who wants a finish, fight of the night, or he'll die trying. Chris is coming off a loss to the quirky Brian Ebersole in Australia in which he secretly fought with a broken rib.

If these men are just going to stand and trade I'll take Lytle's chin (he's never been stopped in his career except by cut) and boxing ability over the Team Rough House member who if Chris gets on top of, will surrender to a choke, or if Lytle dials in that overhand right, its hibernation for the Nottingham Brit. More likely its a crazy back and forth affair with Lylte out working his opponent with reckless abandon.

WINNER-Chris Lytle by Decision

Jim Miller (20-2) [-153] vs. Ben Henderson (13-2) [+143]

Here we have a bout with two elite on the cusp of a title shot Lightweights looking to make the last move before a title shot. Both men are some of the best wrestlers in the division though "Bendo" can contort his body to escape almost any submission with blurring fast strikes, while Jim is a more blue collar grind em out kind of guy.

How do yo pick between two guys so similarly talented fighters? The main difference I see is that Jim has improved his hands and is sturdier. Ben can do anything but tends to need points to win while avoiding his opponent while if Miller can get a hold of Ben, he could rip a limb off or crush his face. Different styles that get similar results but one of the best Lightweight bouts of 2011!

The winner of this bout should be the new #1 contender to the Lightweight title getting the winner of Edgar/Maynard 3 since Clay Guida ruined Anthony Pettis' dream.

WINNER-Jim Miller by Decision

Donald Cerrone (15-3) [+108] vs. Charles Oliveira (14-1) [-118]

Yet another epic Lightweight showdown as the "Cowboy" mossies in to face "Do Bronx" who is coming off a NC vs Nik Lentz involving an illegal knee. Illegalities aside, Oliveira burst onto the UFC scene last year winning impressively before being brought down to Earth by "Bendo," who also defeated Cerrone. Donald has only lost in his career to men holding belts (and one of those was twice) and has become uber-well rounded with the Greg Jackson Camp.

If you blink you might miss something important here. These guys are super fast and with such offensive arsenals at their disposal, anything can happen at anytime. The ridiculous speed of "Do Bronx" may keep Cerrone on his heels preventing him to amass enough points but who knows?

WINNER-Charles Oliveira by Decision?

Amir Sadollah (5-2) [-320] vs. Duane Ludwig (20-11) [+290]

This should be a fun striking affair with two kickboxing based fighters. "Bang" is a killer but oft injured and beginning to decline in his career. Amir is just beginning and will find spots of trouble in this bout, but he is technically finer and hungrier.

WINNER-Amir Sadollah by Decision

Prelims:
CB Dollaway (11-3) [-255] vs. Jared Hamman (11-3) [+215]

Its the frat boy vs the stock broker. Jared has much better hands but CB will probably keep him grounded for most of the night while trying to place his finger in Hamman's ass.

WINNER-CB Dollaway by Decision

* Don't bet here as CB is known to make mistakes and Jared does have KO power.

Joseph Benavidez (14-2) [-270] vs. Eddie Wineland (18-7-1) [+230]

Eddie just can't catch a break. Ed lost a spirited effort against Urijah Faber and now faces another member of Team Alpha Male. Joey is just biding his time to move down to 125 lbs. when the UFC unveils it late next year but now deals with the former WEC Featherweight champion. Both men can mirror each other and the only difference is Ed's hands are a bit better. This could really go either way but take Benavidez just on durability.

* As far as odds go, this isn't a bad one. Ed held firm against Faber, Joey's mentor, and he has great wrestling as well, just not as fluid transitions but better hands.

WINNER-Joeseph Benavidez by Decision

Ed Herman (22-9) [+120] vs. Kyle Noke (19-4-1) [-140]

"Short Fuse" returned to the UFC after a long injury filled layoff for a mere 48 seconds. That quick defeat of Tim Credeur led to this quick turn around. Both men are solid but Steve Irwin's former bodyguard has much crisper hands and power. That and the ring rust Ed should have had to shake off in his last bout and we have a winner.

WINNER-Kyle Noke by Decision

Karlos Vemola (8-1) [-230] vs. Ronny Markes (11-1) [+190]

Ronny steps in for the oft injured Stephan Bonnar to face the little known Brazilian. The Czech "Terminator" needs to employ his old favorite "gong & dash" to put Ronny away quickly before the gas tank empties.

WINNER-Karlos Vemola by Rd.1 TKO

Jim Hettes (8-0) [-390] vs. Alex Caceres (5-3) [+320]

Jim steps in for the injured Leonard Garcia to make his UFC debut. Alex is here because he is known as the "Bruce Leroy Brown" on TUF who acted like a moron in a yellow suit. Hettes is a brilliant grappler and I would doubt Caceres sees the final bell and instead finds a pink slip in his locker Monday morning.

WINNER-Jim Hettes by Rd.2 Submission

Cole Miller (17-5) [-425] vs. T.J. O’Brien (16-4) [+340]

This fight is easily within the grasp of Miller who can best TJ is about every single area. What interests me most is whether or not in the post fight interview, Miller addresses arch nemesis Donald Cerrone who will also fight later on the card.

WINNER-Cole Miller Rd.1 by Whatever he feels like

Jacob Volkmann (12-2) [+120] vs. Danny Castillo (11-3) [Even]

There is nothing to like about "Christmas." By that I mean Jacob is one of the most boring fighters ever and he attempts to wax intellectual about President Barack Obama which got him a visit from the Secret Service. "Last Call" has won 3 in a row looking better each time out.

I never like a fighter who excels in only one area of combat and that is Volkmann to a T. His striking is rudimentary and though his amateur wrestling skills are stellar, the offense that should follow is not. Expect Castillo's better hands to be the deciding factor as the wrestling more or less cancels each other out and the always high Team Alpha Male pace hinders Volkmann.

WINNER-Danny Castillo by Decision

Edwin Figueroa (7-1) [-355] vs. Jason Reinhardt (20-2) [+295] Don't let the records fool you. Figueroa has this thing running away. Jason has no business being in the UFC and probably got back in thanks to buddy Wanderlei Silva.

WINNER-Edwin Figueroa by Rd.2 TKO