UFC Fight Night 25: Battle On The Bayou Picks & Prognostications

UFC Fight Night 25: Battle on the Bayou

September 17, 2011
Ernest N. Morial Convention Center
New Orleans, Louisiana

Its rather sad that after Spike TV's 6 years of service to the UFC helping to bring MMA to the mainstream, Zuffa gives them such a weak card for their final collaboration. They deserved better but that's business. For the gambling addicts, if you need a parlay bet, Evan Dunham and Matt Riddle seem to be locks while Dongi Yang & Jake Ellenberger are my Upset Pick special of the night.

Main Bouts (Spike TV):
Jake Shields (26-5-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (25-5) First things 1st. Our condolences go out to Jake Shields who lost his father, who was also his manager and best friend a couple of weeks ago. By all accounts, Jack Shields was an outstanding person and sincerely loved in the MMA community. R.I.P good sir. I cannot imagine what is going through Cesar Gracie Fight Team member's mind with such an important piece of his life lost so recently, but I didn't like this bout for Shields before the family loss. I worry that Shields will eat a huge punch from heavy handed Ellenberger, but as we saw in the 1st round with Dan Henderson, Shields is tough as they come and just seems to find a way to win fights. I want Shields to win but with all the drama in his life right now I don't see it.

Upset Pick WINNER-Jake Ellenberger by Rd.3 TKO

Court McGee (13-1) vs. Dongi Yang (10-1) I like Court and his story but I don't feel he's a very good fighter. He takes a lot of punishment and Yang can deliver it. McGee is definitely a better grappler but his takedowns leave something to be desired as well. This is a good match up for Dongi who punches very hard and is a much better athlete.

Upset Pick WINNER-Dongi Yang by Rd.2 TKO

Jonathan Brookins (12-3) vs. Erik Koch (12-1) I must say I find it amusing that Koch got a tanning sponsor and is now Jersey Shore orange after being as pale as emo kids. I even respect that he did it because people "thought he looked like a white supremacist." but nuclear orange should not become a trend. Anywho, Brookins is one of the most interesting and affable guys to come out of TUF in a long time. Its a shame his striking defense is non-existent allowing for him to continually get drubbed on the feet. If Jonathan can get this to the floor he has a great chance but I just see "New Breed" exploiting Brookins poor stand up in route to a route.

WINNER-Erik Koch by Rd.3 TKO

Alan Belcher (16-6) vs. Jason MacDonald (25-14) I'm a big fan of the "Athlete" and who didn't love his return from a gruesome injury to submit Ryan Jensen at UFC 129 in front of his homeland of Canada? The Kim Jon Il tattooed Belcher returns from an eye injury that at one point threatened to end his career. Surgery and some luck allowed his return after a long absence. The "Talent" is far too talented on the feet for Jason and though he doesn't like to show it, a pretty good grappler as well. MacDonald is slick as the come on the ground and just has heart for days but he's going to get roughed up on the feet. The ring rust always worries me and Alan has been known to screw things up big, but I think he gets back in the swing before showing off his arm tattoo of the worst despot in the world.

WINNER-Alan Belcher by Decision

Prelims (Facebook):
Cody McKenzie (12-1) vs. Vagner Rocha (6-2) I enjoy watching Cody fight even if he is a goofy seaman (ha!) with one offensive move in his arsenal. The guy fights hard to the death if need be and I'll be damned if he can't pull that unbreakable guillotine from about anywhere. The problem is Vagner is going to constantly tag the very hittable Cody and is very adept to the Jiu-Jitsu game. If by some miracle Rocha is taken to the ground, I feel like he ground prowess will have prepared him to defend against the single move McKenzie throws. I bet its going to be a fun fight to watch but Cody needs to parlay his reality career by moving to the Deadliest Catch to look for success.

WINNER-Vagner Rocha by Decision

Evan Dunham (11-2) vs. Shamar Bailey (12-3) Evan was the toast of the town until the judges raped him against Sean Sherk and he got lamped by Melvin Guillard. Now the uber-talented kid isn't even on this weak main card? That is sad and wrong. A string of bad luck can happen to anyone (ain't that right Fedor Emelianenko) and Shamar is only here because of that TUF show. Dunham is going to take Shaniqua to school and do whatever he wants.

WINNER-Evan Dunham by Rd.2 Submission

Matt Riddle (5-2) vs. Lance Benoist (5-0) I cannot stand the douchey Riddle or how just stupid and immature he is, but he's going to win. The Zuffa brass like Matty and made this match up for him to get back on the winning track and rebuild his confidence. Sometimes you can just see what matchmaker Joe Silva is doing and its no crime but annoying that they like this stagnant idiotic moron. Lance has nothing to offer standing and Riddle is a better wrestler. Hmmm, tough call here.

WINNER-Matt Riddle by Decision

Ken Stone (9-3) vs. Donny Walker (14-7) Ken "Key" Stone (see what I did there) is known for getting the absolute shit slammed out of him by Eddie Wineland in which many people thought he died instantly by brutality. Then Stone got jaw jacked by MMAFO personal favorite Scott Jorgensen in his last outing. But calm down people he's actually a good fighter who just thrown in with absolute lions before he was ready. "Eagle Eye" proved to me in his last loss to Jeff Houghland that he does not belong in the UFC. Stone will get back to his winning ways allowing Donny to get back to the Midwest MMA circuit.

WINNER-Ken Stone by Decision

Clay Harvison (9-3) vs. Seth Baczynski (13-6) Here we have two guys fighting because they were on the Ultimate Fighter but aren't very good MMA practitioners. Flip a coin if you care but I don't see much future for either guy.

WINNER-Seth Baczynski by Decision

TJ Waldburger (13-6) vs. Mike Stumpf (11-2) Whataburger is going to take Mike down for a G&P clinic. TJ just has too much for Stumper who is just a warm body last second replacement.

WINNER-TJ Waldburger by Decision

Mike Lullo (8-3) vs. Robert Peralta (14-3) Peralta may not be a world beater, but he is a Lullo beater. Mike doesn't have much to offer and Bobert is probably going to come out aggressive and starch Lullo into unemployment as far as a Zuffa contract goes.

WINNER-Robert Peralta by Rd.1 TKO

Justin Edwards (7-1) vs. Jorge Lopez (11-1) Lopez fights with Wand Fight Team and Mr. Axe Murderer is very high on this 22 year old prospect. The problem is he doesn't have that destroy rend frag mentality of Wanderlei Silva. The guy counters and that's fine but at some point you have to go in for the kill. Jorge has all the tools here to win and should, I'm just not sure the crowd or anyone else is going to like it.

WINNER-Jorge Lopez by Unanimous Decision