UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson Picks & Prognostications

UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson
February 26, 2012
(Airs on Feb. 25 in the U.S. due to time difference)
Saitama Super Arena
Saitama, Japan

Main Bouts (PPV):
Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. Benson Henderson (15-2) One of the most exciting fights scheduled this year comes to fruition. Edgar has been running game over his subordinates defending his strap twice. "Bendo" lost his WEC title to the "Showtime Kick" but has rocketed back into the scene besting Mark Boceck, Jim Miller, and Clay Guida to earn his shot. Both men posses amazing scrambling ability though the striking must favor the "Answer," Henderson is the more celebrated submission artist. Call me crazy, but I like Henderson to ground Edgar at key moments allowing him to add up points en route to an Upset Win! I am honestly not an Edgar believer and think he has met an opponent who can match his strengths while also bringing in the submission element that has eluded the Jersey native. We all expect fireworks but I'm calling for a new Champion.

Upset Pick WINNER-Ben Henderson by Decision

Quinton Jackson (32-9) vs. Ryan Bader (13-2) * "Rampage" missed weight by 6 pounds, didn't train at Wolfslair or his stateside gym, and is cocky as ever. "Darth" Bader is the hungry young fighter getting back on a one fight winning streak and can bang as well as wrestle. Soon some young buck is going to expose "Rampage" for his lack of interest and Bader may have the salt to do it. Once you don't believe a guy cares for the sport anymore and is collecting a paycheck, how can you credibly pick them?

Upset Pick WINNER-Ryan Bader by Decision

Mark Hunt (7-7) vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6-2) Hunt is a feel good story for Japan but the writing is on the wall. Hunt has only KO power to offer and will need a small ladder to reach Kongo. Cheick will not stand before the Samoan instead opting for his oft used take down for L&P. It will be ugly and boring and one sided. Thanks for the memories Mark.

WINNER-Cheick Kongo by Decision

Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4) vs. Jake Shields (26-6-1) Jake needs a rebound after losing the title fight to GSP and then getting KO'd by Jake Ellenberger after his father passed away. "Sexyama" is making his long awaited 170 lb. debut after losing 3 competitive bouts in a row. The hated "Tito Ortiz of Japan" can strike better than Shields but I fully expect a motivated Shields, who also dislikes his opponent for past cheating, to make a statement putting Akiyama away with prejudice and returning to the Welterweight elite conversation.

WINNER-Jake Shields by Rd.2 Submission

Yushin Okami (26-6) vs. Tim Boetsch (14-4) People seem geniuinely impressed with the "Barbarian's" move to 185 though I am at a loss as to why. Beating Kendall Grove and Nick Ring does not put you in company with "Thunder" especially when you have only showed weight loss and no real improvement. Boetsch is a tough guy but Okami is at another level. Yushin has fought at the highest ranks of Middleweight for the last 5 years and can match muscle for muscle with Tim an advantage he usually possesses. Tim's power also won't hurt Okami as he finds himself planted on his ass over and over again to a lopsided bout.

WINNER-Yushin Okami by Decision

Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14) "Bartimus" has held strong since his WEC days dropping to Featherweight and dispatching struggling Tyson Griffin in his initial UFC appearance bringing his aggressive style to bare. Hioki is the "great hope" of Japan looking for an impressive performance after struggling with George Roop in his debut. I could easily see Bart out working Hioki over time but Hatsu is just so technically brilliant on the floor that he just catches overconfident opponents. Its going to be close again but Hatsu sneaks by and begins making noise for a title shot against Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo.

WINNER-Hatsu Hioki by Decision

Anthony Pettis (14-2) vs. Joe Lauzon (21-6) I like "J-Lau" but I think he is reaching that ceiling in his Lightweight career. The guy can surprise people with his ultra-aggressive "gong & dash" style but after the initial onslaught he has depleted his gas tank. "J-Lau" has decent striking and solid ground which Pettis should easily counter with his stellar abilities. "Showtime" has far more tools and I think we will see two Lightweights here going in different directions.

WINNER-Anthony Pettis by Rd.3 Submission

Prelims (FX):
Takanori Gomi (32-8) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (18-7-2) Once upon a time in Japan, the "Fireball Kid" ruled the Lightweight landscape causing FEG to create the Bushido series to highlight the superstar. Going a weak 3 and 4 in the UFC, Gomi has not evolved his game relying soley on winging big punches and praying he isn't taken to the mat. Eiji is a solid grappler who will definitely be looking to take Gomi into his world. Takanori still has a big show left in him on his home soil and pulls the dramatic win while mounting the top of the cage as he once did the ring posts in Pride FC.

WINNER-Takanori Gomi by Rd.2 TKO

Norifumi Yamamoto (18-5) vs. Vaughan Lee (11-7-1) Long gone are the days of the reign of the "Kid" but he still has enough speed, striking, and power wrestling to handle whatever Lee brings to the table. Losing 4 of his last 5, Yamamoto needs this bout to remain employed and a big win to re-enforce his legend in Japan. Vaughan comes in late but a full training camp would not prepare him for the "Kid's" last stand.

WINNER-Norifumi Yamamoto by Rd.2 TKO

Riki Fukuda (17-5) vs. Steve Cantwell (7-5) 4 losses in a row for Steve who looks to set the all time UFC losing streak with a loss in Japan. A dubious honor as Fukuda looks to achieve some success in a bout where two stiff fighters will stumble through 15 minutes. With Fukuda fading in fights he needs to get to the "Robot" early with the pain. Riki pins a rose on Cantwell who sets the official record!

WINNER-Riki Fukuda by Decision

Takeya Mizugaki (15-6-2) vs. Chris Cariaso (12-3) Chris is a serviceable fighter but the "Miz" has a level of competition and heart that Cariaso cannot match. Takeya will overwhelm Chris with the aggression pulling away late in the fight.
WINNER-Takeya Mizugaki by Decision

Prelim(Facebook):
Tiequan Zhang (15-2) vs. Issei Tamura (6-2) The "Mongolian Wolf" is on display against a last second replacement playing the role of the sheep. Issei won't have much to offer save for being a member of Krazy Bee which probably got him the job.

WINNER-Tiequan Zhang by Rd.2 Submission

7-1 on the UFC on Fuel featuring Sanchez vs Ellenberger for which we posted no results.