Wednesday, September 19, 2012

UFC 152 Jones vs Belfort: Picks & Prognostications



UFC 152
September 22, 2012
Air Canada Centre
Toronto, Ontario, Canada


     I don't know about you, but I've been pining for some high level MMA action for a while now.  People are complaining about "too many cards" but I never get enough.  There is also the complaint about the "Main Event" which I also don't fathom.  We're basically getting a free title fight because of "Hendo's" injury.  Jones, who I don't care for as a person, didn't have to take any fight and I would not have been upset with him if he waited for Machida or Dan to return.  Its gonna be a tough night in Canada as the homeboys go 0-4 watching the Americans win 8-2 versus the world.  I hate going chalk on picks but it is what it is.  UFC 152 is a solid card with intriguing and important match ups not to mention two title fights.  The MMA drought is ova so lets pick some fights!
Main Bouts (PPV):
Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones (16-1) vs. Vitor Belfort (21-9)  Again, I don't fault "Bones" for the 151 debacle but I don't like the guy either.  Still, he's an amazing freak of nature with serious skill that tops Belfort's game everywhere save for pure striking power.  The "puncher's chance" is all Vitor has and consider the 35 year old hasn't seen the 2nd round, whether winning or losing, since 2008.  Yes, Vitor is sort of a former Light Heavyweight Champion but keep in mind he "won" the title when his glove scratched Randy Couture's eye 0:49 seconds into their rematch.  Belfort then promptly lost the belt to Couture in the rubber match.  History lesson aside, Jones has almost every tool to defeat Belfort and will do so at a time and method of his choosing.  It will be amusing to watch Vitor swing and miss while gassing out badly as the fight moves on until Jonny is done sparring.  Oh and by the by, Jon's beard just looks stupid.
WINNER-Jon Jones by Rd.3 TKO

Flyweight Tournament Finals
Joseph Benavidez (16-2) vs. Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1)  The inaugural Flyweight title is on the line between two Flash like fighters who can do the whole game.  Both men have lightspeed wrestling skills but Joe "B-1 Kenobi" (greatest nickname ever) has the power "Mighty Mouse" lacks.  Quite frankly, Joey is just better and is going to prove it getting Team Alpha Male their 1st UFC belt and becoming the George Washington of 125.
WINNER-Joseph Benavidez by Decision

Michael Bisping (22-4) vs. Brian Stann (12-4)  The "Count" vs the "All-American."  Tea versus apple pie.  Bravado versus humility.  Country versus country in a completely different country.  Mike gets no love in the media or with the fans but the guy has a very well rounded game and has only lost against he very elite of the UFC and was only stopped once by the "H-Bomb" which can literally happen to anybody.  Stann has been a power striker with a gigantic hole in his game on the mat which Chael Sonnen exploited and don't forget there is a case to be made that Bisping beat Sonnen and was jobbed by the judges.  Brian has improved in his career and works very hard but just doesn't seem to be able to evolve to the level needed to challenge for a title.  The "Count" has won 11 times in the UFC and has a higher fight I.Q. not to mention an ability to change game plans mid fight to get the job done.  Stann is going to need and hail mary punch but Mike is going to keep him working and guessing all the way to the finish line.  
WINNER-Michael Bisping by Decision

Matt Hamill (10-4) vs. Roger Hollett (13-3)  "What?" returns from his 1st retirement of 13 months, and meets the debuting Canadian "Hulk" in a who cares fight.   Hamill has power striking but is terrible throwing and just hopes something lands.  Matt does have his solid wrestling which he will rely on as he gets a comeback win against a nobody.
WINNER-Matt Hamill by Decision

Cub Swanson (17-5) vs. Charles Oliveira (16-2)  The winner here finds himself in a good position in increasingly competitive Featherweight division.  Both men are exciting fighters that throw a myriad of strikes and slick submissions respectively.  Olive definitely has his standard reach advantage but will not want to keep this fight standing against the creative Jackson/Winkeljohn product.  "Do Bronx" can move and mix things up striking keeping Cub busy before he takes him down and employs some sadistic Jiu-Jitsu.  If Swanson wants to throw his spin wheel kicks and spinning back fists he's going to turn into a takedown and he isn't likely to land them anyway.  Cub isn't out of this fight by any means but the percentages have to lean toward Oliveira getting the tapout within 15 minutes of work.
WINNER-Charles Oliveira by Rd.3 Submission
Prelims (FX):
Igor Pokrajac (25-8) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (9-5) Magalhaes became a bit controversial since his TUF days winning the M-1 Global Light Heavyweight title which he disrespected, trying to sell it on Ebay after quitting the promotion, and then helped train Brazil's arch enemy Chael Sonnen for the rematch with Anderson Silva.  Big talk Vinny has his chance to prove his skills though you can still color me skeptical.  "Pezao" has improved his striking but his game is still Jiu-Jitsu. Igor is tough and loves to get in a brawl and puts the hurt on Vinny who shows his lack of heart and ability to absorb punishment as the referee is called upon to halt the beating.
WINNER-Igor Pokrajac by Rd.2 TKO

TJ Grant (18-5) vs. Evan Dunham (13-2)  This is the great sleeper fight of the evening with two highly skilled Lightweights looking to break into the 155 elite.  Grant needs to ground this fight and keep things where he is most comfortable but Dunham just has too much skill in all areas.  Dunham has only faltered against the striking of Melvin Guillard (the Sean Sherk debacle doesn't count) but TJ doesn't exactly strike fear in opponents while punching.  Dunham may start slow, but once he gets going its going to be all Grant can do to survive to the final bell.
WINNER-Evan Dunham by Decision

Sean Pierson (12-6) vs. Lance Benoist (6-1)  The 36 year old Canadian saved his job winning a decision last out but his prime days are long behind him and they weren't that great to being with.  I'm not hating on "Pimp Daddy" who is a generally pretty good dude but Lance from the Lou is going to retire the old man showing more tools in an eh, bout.
WINNER-Lance Benoist by Decision

Jimy Hettes (10-0) vs. Marcus Brimage (5-1)  The "Kid" is still undefeated after his 1st two UFC bouts and has been a nice surprise while the uber-annoying "Bama Beast."  Nothing about Brimage empresses me and his biggest attribute, his loud mouth, won't save him in a fight.  Jimy still needs a lot of work standing but Marcus leaves himself wide open for counters and takedowns not to mention Hettes' great throws.  Its gonna be a humbling evening for Marcus as Hettes punishes him on the floor and eventually finds a stoppage by striking or more likely a well timed submission.
WINNER-Jimy Hettes by Rd.3 Submission
Prelims (Facebook):
Seth Baczynski (17-8) vs. Simeon Thoreson (17-2-1)  The "Polish Pistola" has reeled off has ran of 5 straight wins while the Norwegian has rattled off 3 straight wins and both can fight on the feet and floor.  Seth has more tricks in the bag in a competitive yet not close contest.  
WINNER-Seth Baczynski by Decision

Mitch Gagnon (8-2) vs. Walel Watson (9-4)  The Canadian lost his initial Zuffa bout while the American has gone 1-2 and made the unfortunate tattoo choice of a phallic symbol on his chest pointing toward his mouth and shockingly many men have done.  Walel has a distinct reach advantage and should have learned his lesson on how to fight wrestlers last out against TJ Dillashaw.  Mitch isn't at that level of wrestling and he eats strikes all night if he doesn't get stopped en route to a one sided affair.
WINNER-Walel Watson by Decision

Kyle Noke (19-6-1) vs. Charlie Brenneman (15-4)  Damn the "Spaniard" has fallen deep down the card these days.  Wasn't it just June of last year that Charlie "Main Evented" a show and actually pulled a big Upset? Since, he has gone 1-2 and hasn't developed his game past his smothering wrestling.  Noke has lost a couple in a row as he has yet to develop a ground game creating this wrestler versus striker style match up.  Expect the norm as Brenneman is relentless with the takedown attempts and spends most of the night on top for the judges nod.
WINNER-Charlie Brenneman by Decision

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