May 24, 2014
MGM Grand Garden Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada
This card has seen no less than 9 fight changes due to injuries and the fact that Vitor Belfort can’t fight unless he is cheating with TRT which is now banned. Still, we have the annoying debate as to whether Barao is a marketable fighter which frankly, doesn’t matter. Dana White has done all he can to pump up the cred of the Bantamweight Champion calling him the best pound4pound fighter on the planet. Of course, that will change when we have the next UFC event but we digress. The topic just isn’t worth debating because the fact is, that Barao is the best Bantamweight fighter on Earth, and though that doesn’t move the needle with fans, it doesn’t need to. True MMA fans will appreciate his excellent game, and casual fans can comment on his John Elway teeth and odd victory dance. “Hendo” is trying to do the impossible and defeat the dominating and undefeated “DC,” while we get a truly interesting Welterweight contender fight, MMA Mouthpiece’s beloved “Miz” in action, and Jaime Varner who is looking to crash and burn every time he has victory in hand. Yes, the undercard is shit, but MMA is MMA, and always more exciting than the endless minutia of baseball and soccer on the tele.
Main Card on PPV:
Renan Barao (33-1,1) -800 vs. TJ Dillashaw (9-2) +500
Team Alpha Male has been shut completely out in title fights and things don’t look good for TJ, who is stepping in on short notice to face one of the best fighters on the planet.
Dillashaw is fast but he’s not as fast as Renan and doesn’t have the instant break yo face power either. Those Nova Uniao kicks aren’t going to do TJ any favors either as they slow the movement of Dilly. TJ will struggle to get down Barao who has some of the best takedown defense in all of MMA. There just aren’t any ways “Bang” Ludwig’s prize pupil can win this short of luck and a massive mistake by the champ. The Brazilian will hurt TJ on the feet before tapping him on the ground much like he did against Brad Pickett.
WINNER-Renan Barao by Rd.3 Submission
Daniel Cormier (14-0) -750 vs. Dan Henderson (30-11) +475
The UFC had better have the stretcher ready and at cage side for this one. The beloved “Hendo” is now off the TRT for the 1st time in 8 damn years (!), and even if injected in both eyes minutes before the fight with PCP and horse steroids, he still wouldn’t have a chance.
Henderson was near a living death in his last meeting with “Shogun” when that “H-Bomb” out of nowhere saved his day. Dan was rocked multiple times in the fight and looked like a zombie slowly limping around the cage and whiffing on that one punch he was looking for all night long. Granted, when it finally landed it did the job, but nobody denies that Dan has looked terrible in the last few years and isn’t even faking the fact he barely trains. Time is a bitch and “Hendo” should have retired after the miracle in Brazil.
“DC” is a spectacular wrestler with natural striking ability and more intelligence than 3 Dan Henderson’s. People were mocking the ability of Patrick Cummins to give Cormier a fight but Dan doesn’t have much more of a shot. “DC” knows that the weigh-in and avoiding the one big thing are his only worries. Daniel is vastly better in every facet of the game and is younger and has far less fight wear on the tires.
No way “DC” loses this and we’re just waiting for the Jon Jones call out after the fight and hoping Dan wakes from his short coma.
WINNER-Daniel Cormier How Ever He Fucking Feels
Robbie Lawler (22-10,1) -225 vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7) +175
Who wants to see a striker’s delight? The “Ruthless” one has one shot kill power and the “Juggernaut” will attack like a rabid Pride FC Wanderlei Silva. Both men have put away 18 men with the fists! Title implications are on the line and this one’s gonna be fun.
Lawler was a minute away from winning the Welterweight title until Johny Hendricks rocked him and found another gear. Even so we could not have been more impressed with Rob’s takedown defense, vastly improved fight IQ, endurance, and the boxing is always there.
Ellen can strike with anyone, but he has not shown improvement in his game the way Lawler has. Rory MacDonald showed technical wrestling skills and a long solid jab, can thwart Jake’s game plan and leave him without a retort. Jake looked like a deer in headlights as he watched the very same punch baffle him for a long, long 15 minutes. It was awful. Speed isn’t Jake’s game and he must use some leg kicks that Rob usually refuses to check.
We don’t see the wrestling match breaking out in this one as Ellenberger loves the mitt work too much. Grappling would be his best shot here but its not going to come into play. The men are going to mark each other up and the more Lawler lands and angers Jake, the more things will turn in favor of the ATT improved fighter. Throwing bombs with the “Ruthless” one will catch up to everyone eventually, and the “Juggernaut” crashes in spectacular fashion before the 15 minute mark.
WINNER-Robbie Lawler by Rd.2 TKO
Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2) -165 vs. Francisco Rivera (10-2) +135
The “Miz” is on the best winning streak of his career and surprising fools on his way back to another Bantamweight title fight. Takeya has fought a murderers row of opponents throughout his career and has learned and improved along the way. Mizugaki cuts a blistering pace and likes to get gritty wearing opposition down and has a granite chin.
“Chico” is a blaster with power in both hands but can find himself lost when things hit the mats. Rivera’s true shot here is by throttling the Japanese fighter on the feet and avoiding the ground like its lava.
MMAMP doesn’t pick against the “Miz” goddamn it! Franny hasn’t faced anyone in his career like Takeya and he ain’t ready for this. Run it to 5 as Mizugaki uses technique and pressure to inch ahead and close out a close fight.
WINNER-Takeya Mizugaki by Decision
Jamie Varner (21-9-1,2) -190 vs. James Krause (20-5) +155
Oh Jaime Varner, why do you fight like a moron? “C-4” has all the tools of a great fighter but just shoots himself in the foot more than about any other MMA practitioner. Last out, Varner was whipping woman beater Abel Trujillo when he abandoned a grappling game that would assure him victory, in favor of a striking war which was his opponents only shot.
Guess what happened? Jaime got knocked out on his fucking face! Getting too reckless and over aggressive has always been Varner’s downfall and it seems a lesson he refuses to learn.
James “The James Krause” Krause (that is 4 stars for your nickname sir!) reps Blue Springs, Missouri and brings an exciting in your face style similar to his opponent. We hope Krause has recovered from the absolute ball crushing low blows that Bobby Green delivered in his last fight, and can use his long reach advantage to frustrate the midget Lightweight.
In theory, Varner should be able to work the body shots and change levels frequently in order to ground and pound his enemy. But how can one rely on Jaime to do the right thing? We shake our heads at this pick, but we find Varner to be the better fighter, and in need of a win to stay employed with the UFC, we pray to the fictional God that he fights smart enough to survive another day.
WINNER-Jaime Varner by Decision
Prelims on Fox Sports 1:
Michael Chiesa (10-1) -135 vs. Francisco Trinaldo (14-3) +105
Chiesa and his beard have both been overrated since he won TUF 15. The guy is scary thin possessing zero power, and though he can throw punches a bit, he leaves himself wide open for counters on the feet. On the mat, Mike is stellar. The “Maverick” can scramble and transition like it ain’t no thang and is pretty tough for a bean pole.
“Massaranduba” is a just massive Lightweight. The Brazilian is 4-2 in the UFC and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who uses his power to muscle foes into advantageous positions. Trinaldo will need to get business done fast because that big frame wears down quickly in all his bouts.
If Mike can avoid the early bombs thrown from Francisco, he’ll be in the drivers seat. Chiesa and Franny can stall each other out on the mat but Mike isn’t going to tire and can use distance strikes and kicks to avoid the power before taking the exhausted Brazilian at his own game.
WINNER-Michael Chiesa by Rd.3 Submission
Tony Ferguson (14-3) -300 vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2) +230
Anthony has quietly gone 4-1 in the UFC backed by his long reach, solid striking, and uses great endurance to batter and whither his foes.
Kikuno has won his last 6 fights and uses a bewildering karateka style. Kat uses a lot of combinations but can tend to take his foot off the gas, and is coming to fight in America for the 1st time.
“El Cucuy” takes too many shots and will likely get tagged by Kikuno for part of the evening. Still, the cardio will push Katsunori down the stretch and if need be, Ferguson can get some takedowns and do work to ensure the judges nod.
WINNER-Tony Ferguson by Decision
Chris Holdsworth (5-0) -350 vs. Chico Camus (14-4) +265
The Kobra Kai submission specialist won TUF 18 (which nobody cares about) and reps the Gracie style Jiu-Jitsu which is tattooed on his shoulder. MMAMP actually slept a bit on this kid and we were pleasantly surprised at how quickly Holdsworth has improved his striking.
Chico is a jack of all trades, master of none, blue collar kinda fighter. Camus out works his opponents for decision nods but a finish isn’t ever in the cards.
“King” has shown he will continually make mistakes in fights as he did over and over again against Dustin Kimura. Camus was winning on the feet but kept taking Dustin down until he ended up getting tapped. Chico’s submission defense has been suspect and he has had camp issues bouncing in and out (under controversy) with Roufusport. Chris should be able to cut through Chico’s guard and knife out a submission before we hear from the judges.
WINNER-Chris Holdsworth by Rd.2 Submission
Al Iaquinta (8-2-1) -375 vs. Mitch Clarke (10-2) +285
Al has really been improving with the Serra-Longo camp and is a deadly striker, solid wrestler, and on a 3 fight winning streak. Al is very strong for the weight class and should be able to bully his opponent all night.
The “Danger Zone,” which is a nickname Archer would be proud of, is 1-2 for Zuffa and relies on the grappling skills which are average.
Iaquinta has gotten a “showcase” bout here as he is better in every facet of the game. Al’s gonna take it home and Mitch won’t offer much resistance.
WINNER-Al Iaquinta by Rd.2 TKO
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Anthony Njokuani (16-7,1) -240 vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1) +190
Njokuani is a generally entertaining kickboxer but you take a look at his record and it alternates between wins and losses like clockwork.
“From Hell” Pichel will be happy to trade while standing and can mix in the takedowns.
Nj has bad takedown defense and will have trouble with the aggression of Pichel. Tony will be grounded and rendered ineffective.
Upset Pick WINNER-Vinc Pichel by Decision
Sam Sicilia (12-4) -155 vs. Aaron Phillips (5-0) +125
Sicilia is a tepid 2-3 in the UFC but he does fight aggressively and has heavy hands.
Aaron is getting a shot here based upon Doo Ho Choi‘s injury, and is tentative at best. That isn’t good if you are a striker and if Phillips is put on his back, he’s gonna be stuck there like a turtle.
Sam isn’t long for the UFC roster but Phillips is just here for filler.
WINNER-Sam Sicilia by Decision Or Whatever
David Michaud (7-0) -155 vs. Li Jingliang (8-2) +125
The curtain jerker is an absolutely pointless fight between two guys who just aren’t UFC ready. David is your general wrestler who hasn’t fought anyone good in his young career.
The “Leech” is another attempt by Zuffa to establish a Chinese star. The market there is ginormous and they are in desperate need of a draw. Li is a grappler but its doubtful he can hang with the standard American style of wrestling.
WINNER-David Michaud by Pointless Decision
UFC 173 Start Times
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
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