MMAFO's UFC 175 Weidman vs Machida: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

July 5, 2014
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas, Nevada

This is a great card and a reminder of how UFC events used to look in the past, as Zuffa now slowly morphs into Professional Boxing where there are two decent fights on an entire card. At anywho and what not, there are just crazy long odds on this card and some really stellar and interesting matches. Weidman tries to legitimately defend his title for the 1st time (just kidding people) against the “Brazilian Enigma.” The bitch everyone loves to hate is back to defend her tiara. Stefan Struve returns from a hole in his heart to fight our beloved a-hole. And the real Urijah shows the fake Uriah how its Doane. Pick it up.

Main Card on PPV:
Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman (11-0) -190 vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4) +155

Weidman is credited as a come forward hard puncher, that has legit wrestling credentials to fall back on if need be. It has been said that he just comes out and smashes people but there is a little bit more technique than that.

The “Dragon” is a point fighter who tags and runs before loading up on a shot you either didn’t see coming, or didn’t expect to have so much power behind it. Elusive is also a term batted around.

The questions are these. Can Weidman locate Machida long enough to put those powerful hands on him and do damage? Will Lyoto offer up anything significant enough to ensure his victory in the eyes of the judges? Doubtful. The "Dragon" doesn't present enough offense to really win 3+ rounds while Weidman has some real sneaky striking. These aren't just overhand rights but tricky left hooks (that rocked Anderson Silva) and coach Ray Longo has many more cards left to play. Chris has good clinch work and though its doubtful he can get Machida to the canvas for any real length of time, he has Jiu-Jitsu skills and has competed in Abu Dhabi. We just haven't seen all Weidman has to offer yet but we pretty much know Lyoto is going to dance and flow which the "Spider" showed doesn't work with this blue collar kill you guy.
WINNER-Chris Weidman by Rd.3 TKO

Women’s Bantamweight Champion Ronda Rousey (9-0) -1000 vs. Alexis Davis (16-5) +600

Jesus Christ Vegas, -1000? Just showing Alexis Davis no respect here. The Canadian is on a 5 fight win streak and has beaten only top competition on her way. The “Ally-Gator” is a grappler and that seems to be a rough way of trying to defeat the Queen.

There has been some talk that Rousey has taken Davis lightly and has been spending too much time making movies and not training. This is called hype. Ronda is one of those driven people who just gives 100% in everything she does. “Rowdy” will be prepared and bringing ever improving stand up along with her Judo skills and that damned armbar. And to be honest and no disrespect intended for Davis, Rousey could prolly win this at 50%. 

Ronda is going to Judo throw Davis to the mat and then TKO her, yes TKO, not submit! Thats as far out on the limb as we are willing to go. Now Ronda goes away to make the movies people thought she was making before this camp.
WINNER-Ronda Rousey by Rd.2 TKO

Stefan Struve (25-6) -155 vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3) +125
Welcome back Mr. Struve. Stefan has had a tough run of things as doctors discovered a hole in his heart and his father passed away since we've seen the big fella. Now, a year later, the "Skyscraper" returns with his 6'11" frame, surprising submission skills for a man his size, and a chin that shatters like glass.

Full disclosure, MMAFO has been a longtime fan of "Meathead" Mitrione. Quite frankly, we find him funny and do believe there is a lot of talent there. Matt is a natural athlete with really stern leg kicks and some power in both hands. Mitrione's weakness is his ground skills and a scatter brained attack instead of a sound game plan.

So when the Heavyweights clash in the center of the cage, Mitrione will need to avoid the ground and deliver some of that power that destroyed Shawn Jordan last out. Its always tough to come back from a long layoff, not to mention a major medical ailment, but really it comes down to Stefan not knowing how to move his head and refusing to use his size advantage in any meaningful way. No defense leads to a lot of offense and a win for the big Blackzilian.
Upset Pick WINNER-Matt Mitrione by Rd.2 KO

Uriah Hall (8-4) -400 vs. Thiago Santos (9-2) +300

The next, next, Anderson Silva finally got a UFC win when he was served a shell of a Chris Leben on which he practiced some striking. Hall is all flashy moves but cannot seem to let the hands go as he should. Its really quite frustrating to see someone with so much talent do so little (hits home doesn’t it Francis Carmont?).

“Marreta” is a 1-1 (for Zuffa) striker that is here basically to not test Uriah too much and allow him the win.
WINNER-Uriah Hall by Decision

Marcus Brimage (6-2) -110 vs. Russell Doane (13-3) -120

Oh shit, the “Bama Beast” is back and at a new weight class as if it matters. This guy can never shut his mouth but he doesn’t impress either. The ATT striker is better suited at 135 but his striking is bad as his feet slide all over the place in danger of causing the fighter to fall from his own lack of balance. And his top control is rudimentary fare.

Doane, of the legendary back pain pill company, is a Hawaiian, and if you know anything about MMAFO, we love us some Hawaiian fighters. They are all heart and thats a stereotype we can all get behind with these island savages.
WINNER-Russell Doane by Decision

Prelims on Fox Sports 1:
Urijah Faber (30-7) -900 vs. Alex Caceres (10-5) +550

The “California Kid” is back from a jobbing at the hands of Herb Dean to face “Bruce Leeroy,” the surging bizarre Bantamweight.

Caceres has found his stride (not without the help of some questionable judging) backed by creative striking and some improving grappling.

But this is fucking Urijah Faber! Its cute and a smart move for Alex to call out the “Kid” to try and gain some recognition, but I’ve heard interviews where Caceres basically admits he’s going to learn more from this loss than any of his wins. Enjoy the lesson “Bruce Leeroy” as Faber shows how much harder he can hit, how much faster he can scramble, and how a truly tight choke can take a man’s soul.
WINNER-Urijah Faber by Rd.2 Submission

Kenny Robertson (13-3) +130 vs. Ildemar Alcantara (20-6) -160

Ken is a vanilla submission fighter that is worthy of all the dumb white guy jokes. 

“Marajo” is your run of the mill Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter.
Upset Pick WINNER-Kenny Robertson by Decision

Chris Camozzi (19-7) -260 vs. Bruno Santos (13-1) +200

It took time, but Camozzi has gradually broken us down in much the same way he fights. Chris has some of the worst tattoos in the game which is a MMAFO pet peeve, but damned if the grinder hasn’t impressed us with his will and shocking ability to stay in the UFC.

Bruno is a boring as hell wrestler with nothing else, at all, to offer. 

Grenade chest has suffered back to back losses, but who exactly is going to beat Ronaldo Souza, and the Lorenz Larkin bout was a bloody mess. Chris has the cojones to out work Santos and stay off his back long enough to win 2 of 3 rounds.
WINNER-Chris Camozzi by Decision

George Roop (15-10-1) -200 vs. Rob Font (10-1) +160

Everyone will be shocked to know that Roop enjoys a bit of a size advantage in this fight. The 6’1” 135 pounder who is consistently inconsistent. The long range striker is having a decent run at his new weight, having won 3 of 4.

Not much to say about ole Lord Fauntleroy. He’s a Sityodtong fighter that is well rounded but not much info out there on the new Boston, Mass guy. Beware, he is supposed to be decent prospect with some power and wrestling.

Georgi should win this thing but really we don’t know much about Rob. The safe pick is usually the veteran over the debuting fighter.
WINNER-George Roop by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Luke Zachrich (13-3) +135 vs. Guilherme Vasconcelos (3-1) -165

Lets just say what everyone is thinking. Who gives a shit?
Upset Pick WINNER-Luke Zachrich by Decision

Kevin Casey (5-3) +150 vs. Bubba Bush (8-2) -185

The “King” fights out of Black House and cannot take a damn punch. All 3 of Casey’s losses came from an opponents hands but he is the RFA Middleweight Champion and a Rickson/Kron Gracie disciple. 

Bubba, and the sport just does not need guys named Bubba, who has nicknamed himself “The Fightin’ Texas Aggie,” which is just so much worse,  makes his Zuffa debut.

Casey is supposed to win this fight and move on as yet another TUF cast off that we just don’t need on the roster but, we’re taking a chance on the new guy. Bush is younger, stronger, and can strike better as well. Both men will engage in their area on the mat, but the separation will come as the clock ticks. Casey is massive and struggles with cardio issues. BB wears him down the stretch and steals a late victory.
WINNER-Bubba Bush by Decision

UFC 175 Start Times
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main Card on PPV: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Odds by Bovada.