Sunday, July 13, 2014

UFC Fight Night 45 Cerrone vs Miller: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds





July 16, 2014
Revel Resorts
Atlantic City, New Jersey

Main Card on Fox Sports 1:
Donald Cerrone (23-6,1) -250 vs. Jim Miller (24-4,1) +195


The “Cowboy” is staying true to his word by staying busy as he nears his 3rd fight of the year, while on a 3 fight winning streak, of which he has finished all 3 opponents. Three. Leonard Garcia’s life partner is 10-3 since he joined the UFC in ’11 and is a stellar kickboxer with nasty submissions out of the Jackson-Winkeljohn camp. 
Mr. Miller has won a couple in a row (after the Pat Healy NC) 13-3-1 in his Zuffa career. Miller is a blue collar brawler with vicious elbows and grindstone wrestling. 
Both of these Lightweights have hovered near the top of the division for their entire careers coming just short of getting that title shot they each covet. Miller is a bit small for the division but just refuses to make the move down to 145. Both of these men will be pretty even all the way around but the “Cowboy” will have a size advantage and can use his reach to keep the smaller Jim at bay. Miller will try to engage a clinch war to unleash those short elbows while looking to break through Cerrone’s sometimes porous takedown defense to work the top position game. These men are so evenly matched they could easily split multiple meetings but in this 1st meeting, you have to like the “Cowboy’s” chances to impose his will in a potential “Fight of the Year” candidate.
WINNER-Donald Cerrone by Rd.4 Submission

Edson Barboza (13-2) -265 vs. Evan Dunham (14-5) +205
You just never know what you are going to get with Dunham. The guy likes to brawl to his detriment, and though is made of stern stuff, falls behind in fights early and struggles to catch up.
Barboza has been far more consistent and his leg kicks have a tendency to take a man’s soul late in fights. Edson is also the more dynamic striker and the percentages lean in his favor after a close battle. We wouldn’t advise putting money on it though.
WINNER-Edson Barboza by Decision

Rick Story (16-8) -300 vs. Leonardo Mafra (11-1) +230

The “Horror” Story can’t seem to make the climb into the elite level of competition, but his aggression, natural power, and wrestling skills should be enough to welcome the Chute Boxe prospect properly. Expect Story to change game plan mid-fight and go with the takedown to win on points.
WINNER-Rick Story by Decision

Justin Salas (12-5) -140 vs. Joe Proctor (9-2) +110

“J-Bomb” has been up and down in UFC competition but he’s got some striking skills from the Grudge Training Camp.
Proctor can work the clinch game and doesn’t have to worry about being taken down which is a good thing for him. Proctor does his best ground work on top.

Loser leaves town match.
Upset Pick WINNER-Joe Proctor by Decision

John Lineker (23-7) -300 vs. Alptekin Ozkilic (9-2) +230

Hey everyone, Lineker is here to miss weight again. This guy is going to win the fight but can he beat the scale? If he can’t, he should be cut. We refuse to talk anymore about this cat until he makes weight.
WINNER-John Lineker by Rd.2 TKO

Lucas Martins (14-1) +135 vs. Alex White (10-0) -165

Punch. Trade and grade. This will be the blueprint here. Should be a fun little fight.
WINNER-Alex White by Decision
Prelims on Fox Sports 1:
Gleison Tibau (28-10) -160 vs. Pat Healy (29-19,1) +130


“Bam Bam” has had a tough go of things in the UFC and they don’t look like they are going to get much better anytime soon. Healy got his only win taken away for puffing the ganja, and then promptly fell apart in his next three bouts. A loss here and he’s gone! Pat got out muscled and out gamed against the smaller Jorge Masvidal last out and just looked awful for all three rounds. Hard to see him making much noise against a larger fighter who excels at grounding out opponents and Tibau has a more proven track record and stronger striking.
WINNER-Gleison Tibau by Decision

Jessamyn Duke (3-1,1) +115 vs. Leslie Smith (6-5,1) -145

One of the “4 Horsewomen” is back, and though she is coming along in her new career, the glaring holes on the mat are obvious flaws in her game. Crazy size and striking are her game.

The “Peacemaker” is here to give Duke a test and nothing more. Ronda Rousey’s girl gets a win here as dictated by the matchmaker.
Upset Pick WINNER-Jessamyn Duke by Decision

Hugo Viana (8-1) +170 vs. Aljamain Sterling (9-0) -210
 

Upset Pick WINNER-Hugo Viana by Decision

Yosdenis Cedeno (9-3) +135 vs. Jerrod Sanders (14-1) -165

Jerrod Sanders by wrestling clinic folks.
WINNER-See above
Prelim on UFC Fight Pass:
The 1st Ever UFC Strawweight Bout
Claudia Gadelha (11-0) -450 vs. Tina Lahdemaki (5-0) +325


“Claudinha” is a physical specimen from the Nova Uniao camp and, shocker, loves the grappling and ground and pound game.
The Finnish “Jelly Bean” also sports an unbeaten record which is about to change.
WINNER-Claudia Gadelha by Rd.2 Submission

UFC Fight Night 45 Start Times
Main Card on Fox Sports 1: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT


Odds from Bovada.

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