UFC Fight Night 47 Bader vs St. Preux: Picks, Prognostications, Odds, & Recurring Themes

August 16, 2014
Cross Insurance Center
Bangor, Maine

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Ryan Bader (17-4) -185 vs. Ovince St. Preux (16-5) +150

Way back in 2008, “Darth” Bader burst onto the scene winning his 1st 5 UFC bouts including the TUF 8 crown. Then came an ill-fated pairing against then unknown Jon Jones, and an inexplicable loss to Tito Ortiz and people began to question the upside of the Arizona fighter. There were also losses to Lyoto Machida and Glover Teixeira but the 1st is understandable and the 2nd came after Ryan almost had the former #1 contender put away. 10-4 is nothing to sneeze about in the Zuffa realm, but somehow Bader’s name has become something of a joke and we at MMAFO are not sure why. Bader has natural power and stern wrestling skills and has defeated “names” like Quinton Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and Rafael Cavalcante. The guy is always in the Top 10 mix and trains at a decent camp.

OSP is another fighter altogether. The only fighter of note the Tennessee Volunteer has competed against was Gegard Mousasi, whom he lost to in a one sided affair. There has been a lot of “prospect” talk about St. Preux for a guy who tends to gas out in fights that enter the 3rd round and this bout is scheduled for 5. 

Both men are looking to advance up the Light Heavyweight roster but Bader is stronger, has better wrestling, more power in the hands, and has been tested far more. OSP has shown giant holes in his defense which opponents just haven’t exploited. Look for Ryan to do so hitting multiple double-legs and roughing up the youngster on the mat showing him he’s still got a lot of work to do should he wish to contend in the UFC.
WINNER-Ryan Bader by Decision

Gray Maynard (11-3-1,1) +115 vs. Ross Pearson (15-7) -145

Ross the “Boss” is back after getting royally screwed in one of the most egregious judging errors of all time! The record says 15-7 but we all know its truly 16-6 which would’ve put Pearson on 3 fight winning streak since returning to 155. 

Gray took over a year and a half off after back to back TKO losses and switched from the AKA camp to Power MMA. Maynard returns with his stellar wrestling, heavy hands, and many questions surrounding his chin.

With the “Bully’s” only 3 losses coming at the expense of his chin, many expect the wrestler to go back to his salad days on the canvas. Ross has some good takedown defense and moves brilliantly between striking with a myriad of attacks, and keeping opponents honest with some takedowns. If we have a grapplefest, Pearson is going to struggle, but we know how easy it is to lure Gray into a striking war. The deterioration of Maynard has been well documented (1-3-1 in his last 5) and he is about as hittable as they come. That is where the “Real Deal” does his best work attacking Gray with more than he can handle in a spirited affair. Plus, the MMA Gods really owe Pearson a victory.
WINNER-Ross Pearson by Decision

Tim Boetsch (17-7) +225 vs. Brad Tavares (12-2) -285

Jesus has there ever been a cat more overrated than the “Barbarian?” Boetsch has officially lost 3 of 4, but if MMA judges didn’t consist of 3 blind mice, he’d honestly be on a 5 fight losing streak. Think about it. Tim would have been cut long ago. The guy is big and strong, but very slow and pretty one dimensional.

Tavares isn’t going to set the world on fire either, but Brad is a decent technical striker with pretty combinations that include kickboxing and takedowns (though he can’t do anything once he gets an opponent down). 

This bout is tailor made for Tavares to win. He’s younger, faster, and just an all around better fighter in all facets of the game. Brad may have pillow fists that couldn’t finish Lightweight Jonathan Goulet, but he’ll win on points going away.
WINNER-Brad Tavares by Decision

Seth Baczynski (19-11) -150 vs. Alan Jouban (9-2) +120

Its a battle of the crazy last names yo!

The “Polish Pistola” may have an unimpressive record, but he’s got heart for days and is enormous for a Welterweight. Last out in a loss to Thiago Alves, Seth showed he can take a licking and never stop coming forward. That and a solid ground game could serve this kid well.

Jouban, the now former RFA champion, Black House team member, and solid kickboxer making his debut. 

Baczynski has been showing improvement and has many more tricks in his arsenal than Alan. Its gonna be a fun back and forth scrap but Seth knows how to mix in the ground game to steal rounds or perhaps even sneak in a sub.
WINNER-Seth Baczynski by Decision

Shawn Jordan (15-6) -210 vs. Jack May (7-1) +170

Whoooooooooo cares? Jordan has a very suspect chin and might wash out in a Bellator Heavyweight Tournament. 

May is a 6’8” giant of a man who is actually athletic for his size, though he still got blitzed in his UFC debut.
The size difference is going to be funny to witness and we’ll run with the new guy and let the chips fall where the Heavyweight lands.
Upset Pick WINNER-Jack May by Rd.1 TKO

Thiago Tavares (18-5-1) -185 vs. Robbie Peralta (18-4,1) +150

Thiago is one of the most inconsistent fighters of all time and now he’s making the drop to 145 in search of new life. 

“Problems” Peralta is a very good striker and if he shows good takedown defense, he’ll murk all over Tavares.
Upset Pick WINNER-Robbie Peralta by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on Fox Sports 2:
Jussier da Silva (16-3) +250 vs. Zach Makovsky (18-4) -325

Wait, how is this not on the main card? Both of these guys are solid and on the verge of a Flyweight title shot. 

“Formiga” was considered one of the best Flyweights in the world until he came to the UFC and dropped fights to John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez who exploited his striking weaknesses. Still, Jussier has Jiu-Jitsu skills for days and can head-butt the shit outta people (just ask Scott Jorgensen).

“Fun Size” is a grappling machine with crazy speed and athleticism that is going to run game on da Silva da entire night.
WINNER-Zach Makovsky by Decision

Sara McMann (7-1) -450 vs. Lauren Murphy (8-0) +325

Speaking of those unjustly buried on the Prelims, Olympian Sara McMann returns after her humiliating loss to Ronda Rousey, but that should not relegate her to such a low position on this card.

Now former Invicta FC Champion Lauren Murphy makes the move to the big time and comes in with an unblemished record.

Murphy is a physical beast, but McMann is better everywhere the game could go and MMAFO still believes Sara will be the lady to defeat the “Rowdy” one eventually. McMann’s shows how predatory she can be controlling the fight but stay tuned, Murphy will make some noise in the division as well. Ya know, as soon as she learns how to strike.
WINNER-Sara McMann by Decision

Tom Watson (16-7) -130 vs. Sam Alvey (23-5-1) +100 
Its gonna be a kickboxing fight folks! “Kong” has proven he doesn’t always have the best cardio but he's better than this kid in all aspects repeating the theme of the night for the umpteenth time... Tom is the better all around fighter in a throwaway fight.
WINNER-Tom Watson by Decision

Nolan Ticman (4-1) +125 vs. Frankie Saenz (8-2) -155

Here we have a Cal State Fulerton wrestler versus a Arizona State wrestler. Pick your school.
WINNER-Frankie Saenz by Decision

UFC Fight Night 47 Start Times
Prelims on Fox Sports 2: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main Card on Fox Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Odds by Bovada.