UFC 188 Velasquez vs. Werdum: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds (Updated)

Main Card on PPV:

Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez (13-1) -550 vs. Interim Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1) +400

The man called Cain returns after 73 months off due to his 93 injury to defend his Heavyweight title and unify the Interim title for the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Champion. Dubbed "Cardio" Cain by admirers, Velasquez never stops attacking whether exchanging in the pocket or gaining top position after relentless takedown efforts. "Brown Pride" prefers to grind foes down and break men. Besides the onslaught of strikes coming down, Cain is also fluid with his ground game constantly shifting position to keep his opponent working while he smashes.

The "Go Horse" is a Jiu-Jitsu ace who has won gold in Abu Dhabi to decorate his sneaky slick grappling. In recent years Werdum has turned his striking weakness into a strength. King's MMA ruler Rafael Cordeiro has molded Fabricio into a combination throwing, and solid handed puncher. "Vai Cavalo" has leg kicks as well and now even knees as evident against Mark Hunt. 

Who couldn't see Werdum getting slammed to his back and yet still securing a fight ending tapout? Fabricio has become dangerous everywhere and Cain wanting to work in Werdum's guard is a must. Avoiding the myriad of submission attempts coming his way, Velasquez should be able to crunch up Fabby while sapping his cardio away for the later rounds when he unleashes hell to announce his return. Why did Werdum say that Cain isn't a Mexican? He's just pissing off a very prideful fighter who happens to be one of the baddest men on the planet. Bad idea.

* By the by, the odds here are crazy. A 5-1 dog for Werdum is ridiculous considering he can finish from where Cain likes to work so it wouldn't be insane to throw down a couple notes.
WINNER-Cain Velasquez by Rd.4 TKO

Gilbert Melendez (22-4) -185 vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-4) +150

Its the long awaited battle for the "Underground King!" as the formerly long reigning Strikeforce Lightweight Champion meets the formerly long reigning Bellator Lightweight Champion! This, is a dream fight long overdue.

"El Nino" has struggled since joining the UFC going 1-2 though the losses were in title fights against Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis respectively and the case can be made that Melendez beat "Smooth." At any rate, Gil is one of the most well rounded combatants in all of MMA not to mention the UFC. The Skrap Pack leader can wear opponents down in a grappling showcase or got punch for punch in a striker's war. If he has a specific weakness it is that he lacks finishing ability with his boxing and has but a single submission on his professional record.

Alvarez is generally a boxer but a pretty damn good one. Eddie is very fast and his leaping in right hand is one of MMAFO's favorite things to watch in MMA. Alvarez has excellent takedown defense allowing him to fire off that vicious right uppercut or sneak in the left hook. Ed is very durable though he does tend to get knocked down in his fights, he always regains his composure quickly and never seems worse the wear for it. The Philly native did not have an answer for the "Cowboy's" leg kicks in his debut something he should have worked on by now.

Flip a coin folks and just enjoy the show. These two warriors are going to exchange on the feet with chips on their shoulders and while looking to establish their mark in the 55's. They also do not like each other at all which should add fuel to the fire. Gil should have the power and overall skills edge but Eddie will be the quicker of the two. We like Melendez for all his experience against top notch foes but this is gonna be a close, fun fight!

WINNER-Gilbert Melendez by Decision

* Ooh these boys got a little chippy at the weigh-ins but this grudge match is on! Eddie has a real dislike for Gilbert that is wildly apparent. This should be great! Alvarez also wins the award for "Worst Beard in all of MMA." WTF?!

Kelvin Gastelum (10-1) -500 vs. Nate Marquardt (33-14-2) +350

Kelvin was sent up to 185 as punishment for continually missing weight which MMAFO would like to see the UFC do more often. Gastelum's pressure is unrelenting and not having a brutal weight cut will only help his cause. Kelvin is a bruiser with sometimes wild but powerful striking but his bread and butter is wrecking fools on the canvas. His natural power seems to catch everyone off guard his mixed attack and speed has left many opponents caught in the headlights before they realize the fight is over.

Nate is a once "Great" fighter who seems to have ruined himself with the TRT fiasco and trying to get off the PED. Sure Marquardt is technical everywhere but his chin has become a noted liability and in fight years the man is nearing 65. Since '13, Nate has lost 4 of 5 and was brutally KO'd twice. This is the twilight of his career to be certain.

This is smart matchmaking by Joe Silva. Kelvin gets his punishment going back to Middleweight and faces a dramatically declining veteran to right the ship against. This elevates Gastelum and may prove to be the swan song for Marquardt who has little chance of hearing the final bell.
WINNER-Kelvin Gastelum by Rd.1 Submission

Yair Rodriguez (4-1) +175 vs. Charles Rosa (10-1) -225

"Pantera" is here on the card simply because he is Mexican and won yet another pointless TUF season. Rodriguez has a taekwondo background and thus throws a myriad of kicks. Yair is decent but not exceptional on the mat.

"Boston Strong" is a physical beast as his nickname would imply and has fought better opposition and has more experience that the native. Rosa can kick and punch but he deftly uses leg holds to maneuver into the position he prefers and latches onto backs for chokes.

This seems like too much too soon for Yair as ATT's Rosa blasts him to the ground and works game. At the least you can count on Charles to win 2 of 3 rounds for victory.

WINNER-Charles Rosa by Decision

HILL GOT ASS TOO

Tecia Torres (5-0) -300 vs. Angela Hill (2-0) +230

Fight fans, the "Tiny Tornado" will challenge for the belt at some point in her career.  MMAFO makes that promise now. She may be mini, but she is very strong and uses her size as an advantage swooping in to show off her wrestling base. Torres throws a high volume of strikes but there hasn't been a ton on them as of yet, but she is a diligent worker at ATT.

"Overkill" Hill is a very raw talent who hails from the land of kickboxing. Angela's Muay Thai plum is wicked and she'll hit with all eight points. The takedown defense is good but she is definitely a rookie in the grappling department.

This is a nice test for Tecia but one she should pass. Torres is far, far more versatile and Hill won't be able to stop all her takedowns. Tecia works the ground game and wins on points in what could be a very entertaining fight!

WINNER-Tecia Torres by Decision

Prelims on FX:

Henry Cejudo (8-0) -1100 vs. Chico Camus (14-5,1) +650

The Olympic gold medalist in wrestling has yet to taste defeat and has hardly been tested. "Cujo's" striking is improving but he doesn't put full power into his fists because he is always thinking about that takedown. 

Chico is a very tough Roufusport fighter who is light years ahead of Cejudo striking but its not going to matter when he's looking at the lights for 15 minutes.

* MMAFO fully expects Cejudo to win, but +650 for the tough as nails Camus? That is just insane. We'll put a buck down on Chico just for shits and giggles at those prices. Shit it's MMA. A freak injury or KO could easily happen.

WINNER-Henry Cejudo by Decision

* Camus looked quite gaunt at the weigh-ins and had to use the towel. He may have had a bad weight cut.

Efrain Escudero (23-9) +130 vs. Drew Dober (15-6,1) -160

Efrain is a jack of all trades, master of none kind of fighter. He's not bad per say but there have been many nights when he just doesn't seem interested in fighting and is simply going through the motions.

Dober got jobbed by the refs in his last affair which has to have left a bad taste in his mouth even though the result was overturned. Drew is an aggressive southpaw striking Cornhusker who works, works, works.

Dober has the upside of the two as he seems to continue to improve while Escudero plateau'd long ago. Maybe Efrain brings it because the card is in Mexico but we've been fooled too many times before.

WINNER-Drew Dober by Decision

Alejandro Perez (15-5) -185 vs. Patrick Williams (7-4) +150

Williams is an Arizona wrestler and that's about it. Perez won some TUF shit nobody cares about but "El Diablito" is decent. Can't say we care a whole lot about this fight to be honest.
Upset Pick WINNER-Patrick Williams by Whatever

Francisco Trevino (12-0) +325 vs. Johnny Case (20-4) -450

"Frank" is pretty big for the division but about as stiff as a board in there which makes him look like he's 40 years old. He is the least impressive undefeated fighter in the game today.

"Hollywood" has won 10 in a row fighting out of the Alliance camp  and will have an obvious size advantage. Case throws nice combinations and has submissions in his belt as well. This is Johnny's fight to lose as he is just better everywhere.

WINNER-Johnny Case by Decision

* Not sure why, but these guys were in each other's faces at the weigh-ins and there was an obvious dislike. Hmm.

Prelims on Fight Pass:

Augusto Montano (15-1) -160 vs. Cathal Pendred (16-2-1) +130

Cathal has become one of the most hated men in all of MMA simply because of how boring he is and yet the judges keep giving him questionable decisions which he will not acknowledge. The "Punisher" has won 7 in a row all on takedowns and then nothing of note while grounded. Did we mention he's boring?

"Dodger" has won 6 in a row and has only lost to Sam Alvey way back in 2011. Besides being ultra-popular in Mexico, Augusto is a wild man with cardio for days. 

Montano is exciting but his takedown defense is porous and he'll likely spend the evening on his back hearing the boo's of the crowd in another awful Pendred fight.

Upset Pick WINNER-Cathal Pendred by Decision

Gabriel Benitez (17-4) +200 vs. Clay Collard (14-5) -260

The Pit fighter Collard is a pressure attacker with a fun striking style. "Moggly" is a southpaw throwaway from a stupid TV show who is about to get blown out.
WINNER-Clay Collard by Decision

Albert Tumenov (15-2) -450 vs. Andrew Todhunter (7-0) +325


Todhunter? That sounds like a gay porn or something. Anywho, Andrew is a late replacement submission fighter with the nickname "Sniper." Wait, what?

The Russian "Einstein" is on a 3 fight bounce and a great striker with continual head kicks. 

"Tawdhunter" is a massive Middleweight and we have our doubts that he can cut to Welterweight on short notice but we shall see. After that draining excursion the Russian should be able to impose his will and possibly get the stoppage.
WINNER-Albert Tumenov by Decision

* UPDATE-Andrew Todhunter passed out attempting to make weight (ahem, who predicted his weigh-in troubles?) and thus, this bout has been cancelled.

UFC 188 Start Times

Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET /  7 p.m. PT

Prelims on FX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT