Thursday, July 09, 2015

UFC 189 McGregor vs. Mendes: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

IS THIS THE UGLIEST UFC POSTER TO DATE?

It's international fight week intrepid MMA fans, and though Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo has dropped out of the proceedings with a controversial rib injury, we still have an incredible UFC card stacked with talent and intriguing bouts. Two titles will be on the line as the #1 MMA promotion has called up the "interim" label once again, while Aldo sits after pulling out of his 6th, yes, that's 6th, PPV appearance for Zuffa! Geez o'malley. On to the nose picking...

Main Card on PPV:

Interim Featherweight Championship

Conor McGregor (17-2) -190 vs. Chad Mendes (17-2) +155

Well, we brush aside any hope of "Scarface" having the heart to show up in Vegas, but the McGregor "haters" get their way as Conor is set to face perhaps the best wrestler in MMA today. All the lingering doubts about the "Notorious" one will be answered in one way or another on Saturday night. And let's not skip over the fact that this is still an awesome Main Event/grudge match with two thoroughbreds in their primes.

Conor has been training in Vegas for this event to hone some of the best and most creative striking in the biz. SBG's main man uses angles better than MC Escher bringing blitzing combinations with true power, and a kicking attack from various slants to keep opponents guessing. The "Notorious" one brings pressure all night long and throws a high volume of output. The takedown defense is stellar to date though we still don't know if Ireland's favorite son can run game on the mats, but we know he has cardio for weeks.

"Money" is the polar opposite of the Irishman. Mendes is a wrestler by trade though his striking has become a dangerous assault as well and the shocking power in his hands has been catching foes off guard for a while now. Chad can also fight without burning up his lungs and his takedowns and knee taps are a thing of beauty. The short notice should not be a factor as Team Alpha Male fighters always stay ready for just such an opportunity.

Okay, so who does MMAFO roll with here as we are fans of both of these athletes? Unfortunately, we side with "Money" Mendes as we believe the consistent takedown attempts will throw off Conor's rhythm and you know our rule, "If unsure who to pick in a fight, always take the wrestler over the striker." The percentages always lean in their favor. Its hard to imagine McGregor hurting Chad enough to put him away, and more likely Conor spends the evening on the back foot and prolly on his back as well. McGregor will have his moments and will be able to scramble back to his feet better than most pundits believe, but in the end, it will mean a loss via points after a long but entertaining battle.

Upset Pick WINNER-Chad Mendes by Decision

Welterweight Champion Robbie Lawler (25-10) +145 vs. Rory MacDonald (18-2) -175 [Rematch]

"Ruthless" Rob has come a long way over the years and even defeated this challenger previously, and we still don't seen him retaining the gold. Lawler's striking is powerful, his kicks have become a legit weapon, and he's developed endurance for 25 minute wars. But, the guy is facing the next generation of MMA fighter.

The "Red King" has been cross training since he was in diapers and under the tutelage of the lauded Tristar gym. Had he not been knocked down at the end of the 1st meeting with Robbie, the fight was his. MacDonald is better everywhere, though admittedly only slightly, but he is the type of cat that loses and then becomes a son of a bitch killer. "Ares" has the determination that is seldom seen in men today, comparable striking, and far better wrestling skills. The "Armani Assassin" should mix up the game more and slowly but surely pull away in this grueling war.

WINNER-Rory MacDonald by Decision

Dennis Bermudez (14-4) -210 vs. Jeremy Stephens (23-11) +170

This is an interesting affair between two guys that will never reach the top but will always be game fighters. Both men have a lot of power and no flash, instead opting to crush and violate. Its really a 50/50 bout but you have to lean toward the less broken down kid who produces more quantity of strikes and can prolly wrestle better as well. "Lil Heathen" needs to hit that big power strike to even the odds but it's still a pretty damn close and fun fight on paper.

WINNER-Dennis Bermudez by Decision

Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1) +150 vs. Brandon Thatch (11-2) -185

Now this, this is an exciting matchup of future stars of MMA! Gunnar is a karate grappler (if that makes sense) from the unforgiving Iceland. The "Viking" is simply light years ahead of the world on the ground, but he is still trying to get a grip on the striking game.

Thatch had a come to Jesus moment last out when Benson Henderson spread the word of Gawd all over him. Brandon is a large 170er who prefers to get in your grill who mixes beautiful technique with violence. "Rukus" is more well rounded than his foe, but he's going to want to keep this standing at all costs.

This is a hard fight to call and with two young prospects meeting at an exciting time in their careers. Who will impose their personal strength? Both men should have their moments but in a bout that MMAFO see's going to the judges, it should be easier for Brandon to earn a couple rounds in what should be a close captivating struggle.

WINNER-Brandon Thatch by Decision

Brad Pickett (24-10) +550 vs. Thomas Almeida (19-0) -900

"One Punch," what has the UFC done to you? This is not a nice thing to do to a fan favorite veteran with a beloved pikey gimmick. The Brit has been doing his thing for a long time now and hit his ceiling a while back (unfortunately). Let the nickname fool you, Bradley is a submission grappler and a damn good one at that! At 36 though, Pickett has been in a ton of wars over the years and has suffered lingering damage as a result. The ATT scrapper can do the damn thing absolutely everywhere but must, absolutely must, get this to the ground to survive where he has the only advantage.

Chute Boxe's second coming of Wanderlei Silva has an evil look in his eyes that we love. "Thominhas" has never tasted defeat winning 14 by (T)KO, 3 subs, and a single decision. This cat's striking will come at you 50 times before you blink and should you get wounded, he will unleash hell for the finish. Pray to whatever God you believe in that he doesn't hit you with his Bas Rutten like liver shot!

Look, Almeida is going to win this but these odds are disrespectful as they are insane. This is MMA folks. Tommy could trip on the new Reebok logo in the cage and fall into a triangle choke so a few bones (literally a few) on Pickett wouldn't be a bad thing. But make no mistake, Brad is going to take a beating and he won't hear the final bell.

WINNER-Thomas Almeida by Rd.2 TKO


Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Matt Brown (21-13) -200 vs. Tim Means (24-6-1) +160

So, who likes old school, down and dirty, vicious, nasty, violence? Oh, all of us? Well, this fight is a treat for the world! Two of the most brutal, love to take and give a beatin' fighters today, square off for some insanity!

Brown is a pressure fighter who throws everything and the kitchen sink against opponents and loves the war!

The "Dirty Bird" has come alive at Welterweight and prides himself on having the "best elbows in MMA" which he unleashes inside the clinch. Means also brings pressure and throws more in volume though he lacks in the strength department.

Ooh (giggles), this is gonna be fun! The winner of this fight is the fans, but this is big step up in competition for Tim who is facing a guy who just fought two of the best guys in the division today, which is chock full of experience lessons. Truly, Matt is likely the better fighter but damned if it ain't going to be fun to watch him prove it. Just mark this down as "Fight of the Night" already!

WINNER-Matt Brown by Decision

John Howard (22-11) -105 vs. Cathal Pendred (17-2-1) -115

This has the potential to be the slowest, and most boring fight of all time! The glacially slow Cathal returns a mere month after his last bout and on an 11 fight winning streak. His game is so stagnant that his style, not his personality or actions outside of the cage like with most MMA fighters, has made him hated by fight fans! Pendred works into the clinch, takes you down, and then whispers in your ear until you fall asleep in the Octagon. Its awful.

"Doomsday" has lost 3 in a row but still has power in his left hand and likes to grind up opponents, like his Irish counterpart here, which is a recipe for a bathroom break at this point on the card.

Upset Pick WINNER-John Howard by Decision

Mike Swick (15-5) +325 vs. Alex Garcia (12-2) -450

Yes folks you read that correctly, "Quick" Swick is still fighting every decade or so. Mike has battled a litany of injuries and illnesses over the years and his inactivity has led to him falling out of MMA fame. Swick has fast hands and that "Swickotine" of lore, but you cannot bank on this cat with all the issues he has had just trying to swallow a meal. MMAFO does feel for the guy but at this point he might just want to hang it up and focus on the continued success of AKA Thailand which has been a nice story.

The "Dominican Nightmare" was rolling with the Tristar gym until he ran into Neil Magny (by decision) last August. Garcia is an absolutely huuuge Welterweight who has strong combinations and likes to put the pressure on early. If this monster gets on top he will pound Swick through the canvas.

If Mike could somehow survive into the 3rd round he might have a shot to put it on the notoriously gassing Alex, but he'll never make it there. Garcia may hurt Mike really, really bad and it may be time for Swick to hang em up for good.
WINNER-Alex Garcia by Rd.1 TKO


Cody Garbrandt (6-0) -650 vs. Henry Briones (16-4-1) +425

Despite making headlines as Paige VanZant's boyfriend, Cody is a very fast, clean striker, with real power in both hands. Garbrandt is early into his MMA career but the potential is there and training with Team Alpha Male has only upped his stock.

The Mexican has won 7 in a row and is happy to engage in a striking battle which will be the end of him and his employment with Zuffa.

"No Love" will be making the walk to the Octagon with a young child he befriended and who also defeated cancer. Seriously MMA Gods, if you fuck this guy over you are truly dicks. 

WINNER-Cody Garbrandt by Rd.1 KO

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:



Neil Seery (15-10) -110 vs. Louis Smolka (8-1) -120

Ireland's "2 Tap" has impressed since his debut on 5 minutes notice against Brad Pickett. The 35 year old is all heart and fights like a man against boys. Seery is just an old school action fighter who you cannot break and will embrace a bitter war with abandon.

"Da Last Samurai" is a rail thin striker with not much defense or power in his game. Frankly, the guy doesn't belong in the UFC.

Neil is going to show this kid how adults fight dragging the Hawaiian into deep waters with wrestling early and brutal striking late.

Upset Pick WINNER-Neil Seery by Decision

Yosdenis Cedeno (10-4) -210 vs. Cody Pfister (11-4-1) +170

The Blackzilian's "Pink Panther" is a power striker with massive holes in his takedown defense which has been his downfall to date. He's a natural athlete but not much else.

Pfister got blown out in his debut and is essentially a wrestler and little else.

Cedeno could knockout Cody but if the Pfist gets his wrestling going, hell win on the cards for this throwaway fight.

Upset Pick WINNER-Cody Pfister by Decision


UFC 189 Start Times
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET /  7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

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