Wednesday, April 15, 2020

UFC 249 Ferguson vs. Gaethje: Official Fight Card, Picks, Prognostications, & Odds


May 9, 2020
VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
Jacksonville, Florida

     MMAFO will say at the jump that we feel this is a bad idea and not the slightest 1% risk of someone getting sick at UFC 249 is worth it, but damned if we're not going watch! This is a pretty solid event and we are all starved for MMA.
     Florida is no "Octagon Island," but those geniuses who think Pro Wrestling is "essential" will chance it for a buck and MMAFO will be watching from our bunker.

Main Card:

Interim Lightweight Championship
Uncrowned Champion #2 Tony Ferguson (25-3) -185 vs. Justin Gaethje (21-2) +160

In the history of the UFC, nay, all of MMA, has there ever been been a competitor who deserved to be the undisputed Lightweight Champion? Dude has won 12 in a row and beaten an absolute murderers row of fighters and yet, he doesn't take off unfair amounts of time for superstitions, unlike some "Eagles" while continuing to win in spectacular bloody affairs. "El Cucuy" truly is a crazy person and that is why the awkward fella is so damned compelling. That, and he's damn good at inflicting violence. 

Speaking of crazy people, "The Highlight" is also known for throwing caution to the wind and having some of the most brutal fights in kill-or-be-killed fashion. Gaethje has nasty power but he has been (T)KO'd twice while "Fergie" has never been stopped via fists.

Holy shit lord this is a MMA fantasy dream fight and we're at full mast over here. Sometimes in life, ya gotta sit back and watch absolute chaos unfold. Who wins, flip a coin, though the percentages would lean toward Ferguson, we're just going to enjoy the show.

WiNNER-Tony Ferguson by Rd.1 Flying Armbar

Bantamweight Champion #1 Henry Cejudo (15-2) -225 vs. Dominick Cruz (22-2) +185

He’s been gone for nearly 4 years, but in these desperate times, the former 2-time champ gets a seat at the table because the UFC prizes money over respect for the fighters and the sport who have put in the dedication for years but aren't annoying commentators. Cory Sandhagen, Raphael Assuncao, Aljamain Sterling, and Peter Yan are all be offended and speaking out.

Anywho, this is where we are. The "Cringe King" has won his last 5 bouts adding the Bantamweight title to his Flyweight title, only to be stripped of the latter for refusing to defend the damn thing. Idiot. Olympic wrestler bla, bla, bla, we know and now he's even knocking out fools. Guy is annoying as hell but dude is pretty solid everywhere.

"Douche Dom" (can ya tell we don't like the guy?) has not competed since December 30, 2016, when he endured an absolute shellacking against Cody Garbrandt for an excruciating 25 minutes. Much has been made of "Underhooks" footwork but it has also taken quite a toll on his fragile body. The Alliance fighter is now 34 and claims he "don't believe in ring rust," and at least he's walking the talk.

We don't see much of a chance for the "Dominant Dom" here. Cejudo might wiff on some punches early but if he doesn't eventually land a clean punch that puts Cruz down, which we think he will, the wrestling is the fallback. Henry might not even use technique and just go-for-broke but he's going to win and then Domino will announce his retirement. 

WiNNER-Henry Cejudo by Rd.2 TKO

Awesome art by https://www.instagram.com/triangle_bv/?hl=en

https://www.instagram.com/francisngannou/?hl=en
#3 Francis Ngannou (14-3)-275 vs. #8 Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-0) +235

Ngannou has regained all his confidence from the ego shattering loss to Stipe Miocic, and the head scratching lack of effort that followed in the Derrick Lewis bout, and is back to starching men in terrifying fashion. 

Enter "Bigi Boi" who is undefeated, has knocked out all of his UFC opponents, and exploded Alistair Overeem's damn face last out. Rozenstruik is an experienced kickboxer sporting a 76-8-1 record. The Surinamese warrior is impressive.

They're bombin' on common sense, and we're not sticking our neck out for the underdog just yet. 

WiNNER-Francis Ngannou by Rd.2 KO

Jeremy Stephens (28-17) +210 vs. Calvin Kattar (20-4) -250

The "Lil Heathen" is only 33 but he seems like he has been fighting for much longer. 0-3-1 in his lat 4, Stephens really needs a win against "The Boston Finisher."

Kattar has been a tad underrated thus far and a spirited loss last out to the surging Zabit Magomedsharipov didn't hurt his stock. Cal works with Sityodtong and has some nasty striking and won't have to worry about Stephens exposing his weak ground skills.

Jeremy will always have sick power but he has always swung wild and his temper gets him into unnecessary brawls. Calvin should get at least two rounds but he won't be so far ahead that it's not a fun fight. 

WiNNER-Calvin Kattar by Decision

Yorgan De Castro (6-0) +165 vs. Greg Hardy (5-2) -190

Greg "Domestic Abuser" Hardy is a real piece of shit and UFC President Dana White could not be happier about it. The bloated man loves him some woman-beaters and is also ecstatic at bringing back multiple time abuse offender, Anthony Johnson, but more on that scumbag later. 

"Hardly" has natural power but he's green, dumb, and when things get rough, he cheats. When he faced a decent Heavyweight in Alexander Volkov, he was shown to be truly out of his depth.

Yorgan is the opposite of his opponent in many ways. De Castro came from poverty, to High School security guard, to now dedicating himself full time to MMA thanks to a life changing win on the Contender Series. "The Mad Titan" epitomizes the "good guy" in this scenerio.

Did you really think we'll ever pick Greg? Fuck that guy and fuck Dana for supporting him. Let's do this Yorgan.

Upset Pick WiNNER-Yorgan De Castro by Rd.2 TKO


https://www.instagram.com/cowboycerrone/?hl=en

Prelims:

#6 Donald Cerrone (31-14) +125 vs. Anthony Pettis (22-10) -145 [Rematch]

How do you not feel a little bit sorry for "Cowboy" at this point? The guy has faltered at almost every pivotal moment in his career and we refuse to even name that cunt wannabe commentator with the big mouth. That moron doesn't deserve any attention. Cerrone may lose but you cannot say he ever "gives up." Proof positive "Dadboy" is back on the horse having lost 3 in a row, including that embarrassing showing last out against Conor McGregor, and at the age of 37. 

"Showtime" has had his fair struggles over the years as well. Since Pettis lost the belt back in '15, "Pretty Tony" has gone 4-7 while dancing between weight classes and unsure of his approach. 

Not much has changed with these two since their 1st meeting back in '13 truth be told. There isn't much to make MMAFO believe "Cowboy" can really fix the holes in his game "Showtime" exposed the 1st time. Cerrone's last ride ain't far off.

WiNNER-Anthony Pettis by Rd.2 Submission

Aleksei Oleinik (58-13-1) +270 vs. Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1) -330

Well look who is returning from a 2-year absence for cheating? It's the cunt of a human being who can't stop making that stupid goddamn face he thinks is funny. Yes, MMAFO is referring to the tainted husk of stupidity that is "Vai Cavalo." We last saw "Werdumb" unconscious in '18 in a loss to Alexander Volkov. "Flabby Fabby" is stellar at Jiu-Jitsu and fence grabbing.

"The Boa Constrictor" is a bit of a favorite around here. The old timer has about 45 seconds of cardio but he just keeps comin' for that takedown so he can wrap an Ezekiel Choke around ya neck. 

Oleinik has tough sledding ahead of him here. The Russian isn't better in any facet of the game and likely does the "gas-out tapout."

WiNNER-Fabricio Werdum by Rd.2 Submission

https://www.instagram.com/carlaesparza1/?hl=en
#8 Carla Esparza (15-6) -150 vs. #10 Michelle Waterson (17-7) +130 

Credit where credit is due, the "Cookie Monster" has been putting in work and slowly evolving and gaining back her confidence ever since she lost the UFC Women's Strawweight Championship to Joanna Jedrzejczyk back in '15. Esparza. What she lacks in strength, she has _ed with improved volume boxing and has always been a decent wrestler. What has impressed MMAFO most, has been her ability to change course and game plan during a fight when things aren't going her way (i.e. Claudia Gadelha, Cylvia Calvillo, etc.). 

"The Karate Hottie" is a wonderful human being but we think she's on the decline. Getting to a #1 contenders fight with Joanna Jedrzejczyk is her peak and being undersized for the division doesn't help. 

Waterson will always be a game opponent no matter what, and we fully expect this to be a good exciting fight, but Esparza should at least win two rounds and move back into title contention. 

WiNNER-Carla Esparza by Decision 

Ronaldo Souza (26-8) -130 vs. Uriah Hall (15-9) +110

"Jacare" is at a career crossroads. The 40 year old has lost 2 of 3 and just can't seem to beat the elite (Chris Weidman is not elite) in his division. Lucky for Souza, Uriah Hall is far from elite. 

"Sometimes" has won 3 of his last 4, but at a much lower level of foe, and also loses to the best of the best.

We're torn between Ron's decline and Hall's uncanny ability to shit the bed mid-fight, buuuut, Uriah has no sense of self and you should never bet on a quitter.

WiNNER-Ronaldo Souza by Decision?

Vicente Luque (17-7-1) -290 vs. Niko Price (14-3) +245

"The Silent Assassin" versus "The Hybrid." This will be fun. The smart money would be on Luque but Price tends to get himself out of trouble with his sudden, sickening power. We smells us an Upset.

Upset Pick WiNNER-Niko Price by Rd.2 TKO

Charles Rosa (12-3) +135 vs. Bryce Mitchell (12-0) -155

"Boston Strong" come hit yell win smash.

"Thug Nasty" (smh) is undefeated at the age of 25 and hit the legendary "Twister" submission last December in his 3rd fight for the promotion. 

Mitchell will weather the early storm and then put his technique on Rosa's smashing.

WiNNER-Bryce Mitchell by Decision

Ryan Spann (17-5) -400 vs. Sam Alvey (33-13) +325

"Super Spann" has won 7 in a row and is a finisher! The speed advantage will be apparent instantly.

Oh, so we're still doing the "Smile'N" Sam thing? "The Slowest Man in MMA" is on a 3-fight skid 2 of which were (T)KO losses.

This is just a matter of when Spann finishes Alvey and the fashion in which he does it.

WiNNER-Ryan Spann by Rd.1 TKO

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