Top to bottom, the best UFC card of the year. A lot of good fights so let's just get to it.Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell 19-3 vs "The Hunnington Beach Bad Boy Tito Ortiz 15-4 : Though most people have Chuck the favorite, I'm not so sure. Yes, his hands are deadly and there is little chance Tito can hang there. Tito does not have to strike with Chuck. He learned from the first fight not to stand with the Iceman. Simple, constant shots will do two things. It keeps Chucks hands low for defense, allowing for some Tito jabs (which are better than most believe; watch the 1st round of their 1st fight). Second, eventually, Tito should ground Chuck, though it may take a couple of rounds. There, Chuck exposes himself when trying to get to his feet (he is open for submissions), or if he can't get up, he will be punished worse that what Randy did to him in their first meeting. A simple cut from an Ortiz elbow, could end the fight early, whether Chuck is wants it to or not. Cardio also plays a part. Chuck hasn't gone past the 2nd round, since August of 2005! Tito is a cardio machine, will not doubt, push the pace of this fight as much as he can. This could easily become a long fight, which will slow Chuck's punches, and force the dropping of his hands.
All of this being said, Chuck does have those deadly, fast, and awkward strikes. They catch many people off guard with their weird angles, and pure power. If you are playing the percentages, Tito just has more weapons, and is a more well rounded fighter. I'm not even going to get into who wants it more, or has the hype made either man soft. I don't believe it.
WINNER-Tito Ortiz by decision I hate to say it, and I hate the man, but in this 50/50 battle, the odds favor him.
Forrest Griffin 13-3 vs "The Dean Of Mean" Kieth Jardine 11-2-1: Both men love to strike, and cut easily. So expect a lot of action and blood. Forrest has better cardio and striking, but Jardine may have the edge on the ground. Being able to out sprawl Tito, I would think Forrest could defend Keith's takedown attempts, and out strike the slower Jardine. Griffin knows Keith's best weapon has been his leg kicks, and must, and most likely will, avoid them. Then it is just a matter of time till he picks apart Jardine, much like he did to Bonner in their rematch.
WINNER-Forrest Griffin by decision
Andrei "Pitbull" Arlovski 9-5 vs Marcio "Pa de Pano" Cruz 2-1: Arlovski needs a boost of confidence, and Cruz should deliver that. If Cruz can take Arlovski down, which I doubt, he can't keep him there. Andrei is a sambo technician, so he will be comfortable on the mat, and should easily have the strength advantage to take things back to the feet. Cruz strikes are amateur at best, and I don't think he can pull the upset, like he did with Mir.
WINNER-Arlovski by KO
Michael "The Count" Bisping 11-0 vs Eric "The Red" Schafer 7-1-2: Eric is the ground master, and I don't like this match for Bisping. He has been inactive for 6 months, and he hasn't faced any really well rounded fighters like Schafer. Depending on how good his defense is, he might be in for a long night on the mat, even if he avoids the submissions. Still, Mike has great strikes, and might be able to get the fight back to the feet, easier than people think. The striking is the key, and I think that rocks Eric early and often.
WINNER-Bisping by TKO
Chris "Crippler" Leben 16-2 vs Jason "Athlete" MacDonald 17-7: Leben has been very dominant save the quick loss to future champ, Silva. His hands are lethal and his chin strong. Nobody has really done much with him on the ground, though he claims to be good there as well. MacDonald will be looking to go to the mat, but first must tire Leben with his high pace, while avoiding the KO punch. Athleticism exposed Leben against Silva, and pushing the pace into later rounds, I believe MacDonald can catch Leben in a submission (much like the one that shocked Ed Herman), or at the least, out point him to a victory.
WINNER-MacDonald by decision
Yushin Okami 18-3 vs Rory Singer 10-5: Yushin has fought much better competition, and has the better all around game. On the feet Rory has no chance, and on the mat very little. Okami should out power Rory in every category and gain the victory. Yushin is legit, and Rory has never impressed me.
WINNER-Okami by TKO
Thiago Alves 9-3 vs Tony DeSouza 10-2: I'm glad to have the kookie cat named DeSouza returning yet again. His unorthodox style poses problems for all opponents. DeSouza is bigger and stronger, while Alves has been skittish, at best, in his recent efforts. Should be exciting in the beginning, but expect Tony to slowly become more and more dominant on his way to victory.
WINNER-DeSouza by submission
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga 9-1 vs Carmelo "The Fury" Marrero 6-0: Carmelo shocked the UFC with his win over Kongo, and Gabe is still returning to form after the death of his daughter. Marrero will be faster but he lacks true power in the heavyweight division. Gonzaga has the ju jitsu blackbelt, better striking, and is a true heavyweight. Napao could move up quickly in the title hunt if he can win here, and score a fight with a legit contender (say Monson, Vera, or even Kongo).
WINNER-Gonzaga by submission
Anthony "The Hippo" Perosh 5-2 vs Christian Wellisch: Both of these inexperience heavyweights will want to have a chess match on the mat. Wellisch can strike some and wrestle some, but is vulnerable to submissions, which bodes well for the ju jitsu blackbelt, Perosh.
WINNER-Perosh by submission
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