UFC 179 Aldo vs. Mendes 2: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds (Updated 10-24-14)

 

So, the UFC returns to Brazil for the 832nd time this year, and they deliver us yet another eh, PPV. The Main, and Co-Main Events are stellar, but then the card falls off a damn cliff at the feet of Jesus the Redeemer. Ah well, it still makes Bellator's recent cards look like the total pieces of shit they are, and there are Upsets opportunities here so get out yo wallets! 

Brasil vai matar voce!!

Main Card on PPV: 

Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo (24-1) -230 vs. Chad Mendes (16-1) +180 [Rematch]

Its the rematch “Money” has deserved since Aldo grabbed the fence the 1st time around. Team Alpha Male’s Mendes rattled off 5 straight wins stopping all opponents except for the ultra tough Nik Lentz whom he routed in a decision win.

For his efforts, Aldo has only fought 3 times successfully defending his strap each time defeating Ricardo Lamas, Chan Sung Jung, and Frankie Edgar respectively. Nova Uniao’s last remaining Champion (with the falls of Eduardo Dantas & Renan Pegado) has been off for 7 plus months nursing an assortment of injuries. In the time off, Aldo has become increasingly angry with Mr. Mendes whom he has accused of steroid use and even shoved his future opponent at a UFC 179 presser. 

"For me it’s basically me thinking I’m in his head, man," Mendes said. "We’ve never seen Aldo do this with any opponent. I think he feels threatened in his head, which is right where I want to be. When you get into a stare-off and the guy shoves you or pushes you, it’s kind of funny to me. That’s our job, and that’s what we’re supposed to do. If you don’t want to be there, don’t do the damn stare down. It’s just funny to me to see him get frustrated and lose his cool.”

“Scarface” does seem to have take this fight very personally, but lets not forget his skill set. The guy has some of the best striking defense, and offense in the game. The leg kicks are killers, his plays angles like a pro should, mixes in stellar combinations including a liver shot here and there, and lands with real, serious, power. 

“Money” is still reliant on his amateur wrestling skills but training with Coach Duane Ludwig, he’s shown vast improvement in his striking while utilizing his natural power. An underrated point is just how fast Mendes is at covering distance to get in an out, a Team Alpha Male special these days. 

Aldo is going to be looking to counterstrike but that is completely expected by Chad and his gang. Jose’s leg kicks are going to find some success, but they also leave the Champion open to takedowns into Chad’s world. MMAFO also believes Aldo has been getting soft as the Featherweight king, showing less and less offensive output in fights, while taking longer, and longer to get in the cage. This means he just isn’t hungry anymore while Mendes is voracious. As motivated as both men may or may not be in this grudge match, we believe “Money” is going to get a hold of Aldo at some point, as long as he isn’t allowed to grab the cage again, and drag him into a world of pain. Remember Jose slowing and stuck on his back against Mark Hominick? Mendes isn’t going to slow down and will really damage Aldo on the mat. That’s not going to help Jose in the later rounds as Mendes watches the clock tick while in control, on top, and en route to becoming the new title holder.
Upset Pick WINNER- Chad Mendes by Decision

Glover Teixeira (22-3) -335 vs. Phil Davis (12-2,1) +255

“Mr. Wonderful” returns after a loss to the much maligned and currently suspended Anthony Johnson, to try and right his title ship hopes against the also rebounding Glover Teixeira. The Pit fighter was last seen in a shoulder breaking loss to Champion Jon Jones in April. Both boys need the win to stay afloat with the elite of the Light Heavyweight division.

We learned something very important about Phil in his last bout/loss. He doesn’t like to be hit, and if you stuff his takedowns, he is completely at a loss as what to do.

Guess what? Teixeira is great at stopping the takedown and he hits like his mentor Chuck Liddell. 

We seriously doubt Phil has learned how to take a punch and though he’ll do the opposite of Jon Jones, using his long arms and legs to keep distance, he’s getting caught. Glover is looking to rebound big and if he stays upright we think Davis continues to get exploited as a guy with pillow fist hands, that likes getting hit less than Brock Lesnar.
WINNER- Glover Teixeira by Rd.2 TKO

Fabio Maldonado (21-7) -130 vs. Hans Stringer (22-5-3) +100

Now, we all love the heart of “Caipira de Aco,” but the guy just doesn’t seem to know how to protect himself. The overblown Light Heavy decided to honor his home country of Brazil by filling in at the last second, to serve as an opponent for Heavyweight Stipe Miocic. Steeepay blew Fabio out in 0:35 seconds but the toughness of the “Brazilian Hillbilly” cannot be denied. After brutal near slayings at the hands of Kyle Kingsbury and Glover Teixeira, its nice that Maldonado can fight a guy not built to knock his head off. 

Hans without Frans, is a decent 205 prospect who has been fighting primarily on the European circuit. Stringer trains with the Blackzilians, and though only 26, he’s been fighting for 8 professional years. Hans won’t hang with Fabio in the boxing department, but he’s just looking to get close enough for a trip or single leg takedown. Once in top game where Hans does most of his work, he’s going to grind opponents into submission.

Fabio, as we know, is going to use his boxing skills to body shot you to death while absorbing more punishment that normally possibly for a Brazilian redneck. 

Hans won’t stop Fabio with punches and he won’t be able to take Maldanado down. The Brazilian starts slow as always and then the body shots begin to take effect in the later rounds when he takes over.
WINNER- Fabio Maldanado by Bloody Decision

Darren Elkins (17-4) -185 vs. Lucas Martins (15-1) +150

The Hoosier may not set the world on fire with his boring grappling game, but he’s tough as nails with a UFC record of 7 & 3.

The Chute Boxe kid is 3 &1 for Zuffa himself, and has won those 3 in a row, all by finish. Lucas pushes the pace and really mixes up his offensive attack well, but damned if he doesn’t leave himself open to constant counters.

Darren will do what he do and suffocate Martins in a bout nobody enjoys. Especially Martins.
WINNER- Darren Elkins by Yawner

Beneil Dariush (8-1) +170 vs. Diego Ferreira (11-0) -210

The Kings MMA fighter is a submission specialist and protege of MMA guru Rafael Cordeiro which is pretty much good enough for us right there. Ben is most adept on the ground but he tends to be very hittable and doesn’t maintain proper footwork.

The undefeated Brazilian Lightweight is no slouch to the Jiu Jitsu game and also likes to eat punches to his detriment. Ferreira is developing a kicking game but his takedowns are just sad which is where he needs to take his adversaries.

Both men match up evenly whether you consider their strong points or their decencies. From what we’ve seen, Dariush is a little more slick on the ground and can play heavy from top just giving him the nod in a close contest.
Upset Pick WINNER- Beneil Dariush by Decision

Prelims on Fox Sports 1:

William Macario (7-1) +190 vs. Neil Magny (12-3) -240

Magny is quietly looking to win the “Busy Cowboy” award from Donald Cerrone, as he takes his 5th, yes that’s 5th, fight of the year! The Grudge fighter has won all 4 of those contests while beginning to show a well rounded arsenal not just reliant on his long limbs, and striking skills. Neil will have the 4 inch reach advantage.

Macario puts together sporadic power shots but has a knack for working in takedowns to keep opponents honest. Will’s striking put away every opponent he faced on the minor league circuit and “Patolino” brings natural power, something Magny is lacking.

In the end, it will be the diversity of Magny's attack that wins him the day. Neil has vastly improved his takedown defense, and that will allow him to pot shot Macario all night long en route to the judges nod.
WINNER- Neil Magny by Decision

Yan Cabral (11-1) -650 vs. Naoyuki Kotani (33-11-7) +425

Oh Jesus Kotani, you’s in trouble fella. Nao likes the submission game but he’s going up against a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt in his home country. Best of luck and there’s a reason this has the longest odds on the card.
WINNER-Yan Cabral by Rd.2 Submission

Scott Jorgensen (15-9) +140 vs. Wilson Reis (18-5) -170

Finally, and MMAFO means fucking finally, the MMA Gods have smiled down upon Scotty J and given him the win he so rightly deserved against Danny Martinez. Jorgenson has had a rough go of things losing 3 of his last 4 bouts against Renan Pegado, Eddie Wineland, and Urijah Faber (a murderer’s row if ever there was one). Then “Young Guns” dropped down to a more comfortable Flyweight division, and was unlucky enough to meet the incoming Zach Makovsky, whom we at MMAFO believe is a future title contender. Then are intrepid warrior me Jussier da Silva only to be bested by an errant headbutt which referee Wernei Cardoso completely missed. And now we are back to present day where he meets the stocky and stern Wilson Reis.

Mr. Wilson is a brick house of a Flyweight who uses his power to grind down opponents into a bowl of Bony Acai. 

Both men have similar skills though the edge in wrestling has to go to Scotty J. Reis wins the striking battle and therein lies the trouble for our beloved warrior. Scott’s chin has been a bit suspect as of late. Though he toughs through bad situations, there is no denying he has been caught, often, and dropped repeatedly. Getting caught against Mr. Wilson will equal death. Here’s hoping we’re wrong but most likely, Jorgensen’s decline continues in a tough match against a guy on his way up.
WINNER- Wilson Reis by Rd.2 TKO
* In a surprising move, Scotty J missed weight for this contest!

Felipe Arantes (16-6-1) -105 vs. Andre Fili (13-2) -125

Andre “Touchy” Fili is the resident clown of Team Alpha Male with a flair for the dramatic and the hair to match. Fili enjoys the bum rush on his opponents but does have wrestling in the toolbox if need be.

“Sertanejo” has been up and down in his UFC career going an odd 3-2-1. The guy is a punisher who delivers the striking in spades and cardio for days.

This is gonna be fun at any rate. Both guys are going to bring some serious heat here. Arantes is just a ridiculous natural athlete who brings more power but Fili has more in his wrestling game. We expect this fight to be close and exciting but we lean ever so slightly to the young upstart.
WINNER- Andre Fili by Decision

Prelims on Fight Pass:

Gilbert Burns (8-0) -365 vs. Christos Giagos (10-0) +275

Burns is mainly a Jiu-Jitsu guy but showed some striking improvement when forced into it for his Zuffa debut.

Giagos was the RFA Welterweight Champion and can finish a fight anywhere. He excels in the scramble and strikes from all positions.

The rub here is that Burns is a giant Welterweight. Assuming Burns can make a successful weight cut, he should rule the day backed by his intense grappling and overall power.
WINNER- Gilbert Burns by Rd.2 Submission

Fabricio Camoes (14-8-1) -120 vs. Tony Martin (8-2) -110

“Morango” Camoes has dropped a couple in a row

ATT’s Martin just cannot seem to amass the gas for a full fight. He is 3 inches taller than his opponent and can wrestle opponents with ease, but damn he gasses out badly though he was able to grind though in his last appearance (for a judges loss). 

Camoes really doesn’t offer much of anything but if Tony sputters out yet again, he’ll win on points. Here’s hoping ATT got Martin running shoes and a bike for camp.
Upset PickWINNER- Tony Martin by Decision?
* Both men missed weight to start off the weigh-ins which isn't a good omen.

UFC 179 Start Times
Main Card on PPV:  10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

Odds from Bovada.