Saturday, November 22, 2014

UFC Fight Night 57 Edgar vs. Swanson: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

November 22, 2014
Frank Erwin Center
Austin, Texas

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Frankie Edgar (17-4-1) -200 vs. Cub Swanson (21-5) +160
Cub was reborn in 2012, beginning his current 6 fight winning streak and revitalizing his career. The "So Cal" Featherweight has soundly defeated stern competition finishing all but 2 while showcasing stellar timing, slick angles, and just keeping his foes on their heels wondering just what he'll throw yet. Still, the Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter tends to throw punches in small numbers and is susceptible to takedowns. There is real power in Swanson's hands but he prefers to unveil it with counter striking.

"The Answer" has seen and done it all. 11-4-1 for Zuffa and a title run in a higher division to boot. MMAFO dares you to find a fighter with more heart and determination on the roster today. Edgar is similar to his challenger in that he uses angles well, striking from the outside in, only implementing combinations far more often. Behind his jab, comes a sneaky takedown in knee-tap form, as well as exceptional wrestling skills that he relied heavily upon early in his career, before developing his classic boxer style.

We just don't see Cub creating enough offense to outpoint Frankie. If there's a knock on Swanson's game, its that he's too careful at times, while Edgar, will go for broke bringing a bevy of combinations to take rounds. Maybe, Cub can hurt Edgar's chin like Gray Maynard did and capitalize on the moment, but that's not a lot to base your hopes upon. More likely, Swanson doesn't hurt Frankie and is instead, a step behind all night, trying to catch the blur in front of him while wondering why he took this fight instead of sitting on the sidelines demanding a title shot. Edgar is just the better fighter in almost every area and proves it running roughshod over and increasingly frustrated Swanson who gets so angry his terrible tattoos melt.
WINNER-Frankie Edgar by Decision

Bobby Green (23-5) +120 vs. Edson Barboza (14-2) -150

Though we’ve never been believers in mean Bobby Green, MMAFO might have to rethink that position. The “King” has been on an absolute tear tearing off 8 in a row (4 since joining the UFC) while steadily taking a move up in competition each time. Green is a volume striker who loves to cut off opponents escape routes and has a decent ground game when on top.

Barboza is rightfully known as a killer leg kicker. His chops are the stuff of legends and has pulled off some of the most spectacular punch/kick combinations in Zuffa’s history. Ed is good at getting up off his back, but the ground is not where he wants to play.

The problem with the Brazilian, is that when he is hit, he implodes. Donald Cerrone used a simple jab to make Barboza weak kneed and the guy gets hit a lot. Green is very sound defensively and though he has had a rough year with the murder of his brother, and said during fight week he has been thinking about retiring, we think it is more the stress of the times than a reality. Bobby has never reached this level before which could account for his outburst. And yet, Green has attained a new level training with the Diaz brothers, and his stern jaw should carry him through until Barboza shits the bed as always. Take the “King” to a one sided victory on the cards.
Upset Pick WINNER-Bobby Green by Decision

Brad Pickett (24-9) -225 vs. Chico Camus (14-5) +175

The pikey just can’t see to find his rhythm in the UFC alternating between wins and losses frequently, even when he made the move down to Flyweight which MMAFO had championed for years. Despite the misleading nickname, Brad is a scrambler who out works and out maneuvers opponents to find success. “One Punch” does have power in his hands, but its not what he’s best at.

Chico is that standard run of the mill fighter that is decent everywhere, and yet nothing to be afraid of either. Camus is tough but that’s about it.
Really, Pickett is the better fighter everywhere this fight goes, but we do wonder about his fight I.Q. at times. Brad doesn’t always make the best choices, striking with strikers and getting lured into brawls for example, but he does have a solid chin and more skills than Camus. This bout is more about will Pickett win, or beat himself?
WINNER-Brad Pickett by Decision

Jared Rosholt (11-1) -275 vs. Oleksiy Oliynyk (49-9-1) +215

Rosholt is as bland as bland can be. The stereotype of a wrestler, who is lame on striking, but is so good on the ground that opponents can defeat his 1 good skill. Jared’s not terrible on the feet. He does work the body well and has good cardio for a Heavyweight, but its just standard fare we’ve all seen a thousand times before.

The Russian however, is a conundrum. Look at his record. 40, fucking 40 of his 49(!) wins have come by submission! The aptly nicknamed “Boa Constrictor” has reeled off 10 wins in a row generally doesn’t see the judges. Oleksiy won his Zuffa debut but neck crank of all things, and before that, defeated Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic with the same dated move. Can this guy translate these seemingly old submissions into success in the UFC?

Prolly not to be honest. Its fun to look at the menagerie of holds Oliynyk has used throughout his long career to tap fools, but Jiu-Jitsu always struggles with wrestling. It just does. Its a rule of the universe. No, boring as hell Jared will work to the body here and there while maintaining top position for a dry 15 minutes while be pray for the Russian to pull something spectacular out of his ass. Er, pull a spectacular submission rather.
WINNER-Jared Rosholt by Bla Boring Bla

Joseph Benavidez (20-4) -450 vs. Dustin Ortiz (14-3) +325

Joe “B-Wan Kenobi” is the bridesmaid of the Flyweights. He’s so damn good, just not better than belt holder Demetrious Johnson, and thusly, after losing to said champ twice, he’s just putting in work. That’s always a scary thing when facing a hungry up and comer.
Ortiz shocked MMAFO last out when he straight handled our Flyweight future hopeful Justin Scoggins, in a route. The Roufusport fighter is a grappler who likes a quick pace on the mat where he excels in scrambles. Dustin lacks power but he’ll use trips, hip tosses, singles, doubles, and even triples to get opponents where he wants them. Ortiz brings a good energy but you don’t have much to worry about on the feet.

“Rocky Baljoa” should wind this fight hands down. “Jobama” has much more power in his fists than Ortiz, is the better wrestler, and the better finisher. Unless, the “Jo-Jitsu” practioner has completely fallen off his game, or just doesn’t care anymore, this is his fight all night long. Look for “Beefcake” land a counter that drops Ortiz, before “Jonan the Barbarian” locks up that Team Alpha Male guillotine for the tap. Also, “The Dapper Strapper, “Quadzilla,” and “Jobocop” are great Benavidez nicknames. :)
WINNER-Joseph Benavidez by Rd.2 Submission

Matt Wiman (15-7) -200 vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-5-1) +160
Wiman returns from an almost 2 year absence and shows up at the weigh-ins dressed as a fisherman!? Wait, what? Why? I mean, he had on waders, suspenders… never mind. Anywho, Wiman returns from the throttling he got from TJ Grant and has been taking care of old injuries and basically refreshing himself while he found his smile. Aww. Wiman is a stalker who who aggressively goes after opponents in the clinch, and can bomb dopes on the ground.

IVF is 100 years old and comes with the steady 1-2, which you can time with ease. Flagg doesn’t have power or wrestling worth speaking of.

Matt’s gonna beat Isaac up for a while before the finish. Then we’ll hear more weird stories about how Wiman doesn’t want to be called “Handsome” anymore, or how he won’t uses sponsors while preferring one color shorts, or whatever kick he’s on. Hell, maybe he’ll talk like Popeye now and complete the costume he wore at the weigh-ins. Either way, Wiman wins when he feels like it.
WINNER-Matt Wiman by Rd.2 Fish Hook

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
Ruslan Magomedov (12-1) -205 vs. Josh Copeland (9-0) +165

Now this could be a fun Heavyweight tilt. Copeland is pretty fast on his feet for a chubbles and has good striking fundamentals.

The dreaded red uses more kicking in his stand up game and can attack with more range while Josh needs to get in close.

Dunno really. Should be a pretty fun fight between 2 Heavyweights that might have some potential. Could be pretty fun. Or 15 minutes of slow motion hugging. Take the favorite.
WINNER-Ruslan Magomedov by 360 Head Kick

Luke Barnatt (8-1) -360 vs. Roger Narvaez (6-1) +270

Barnatt likes to fashion himself as the new trash talking Chael Sonnen but “Bigslow” is more oriented to a stand up attack behind his lengthy jab and a quick pace for a Middleweight.

Narvaez has a similar punching attack but he’s a little less adept in all areas.

Could be a close fight, but Luke should hold the advantages to at the very least pull ahead on the scorecards, but he could easily sneak in a knee from his high frame catching Roger coming in for the finish. Should be a good night for the Brit to bounce back.
WINNER-Luke Barnatt by Decision

James Vick (6-0) -225 vs. Nick Hein (11-1,1) +175

Take notice, we have a “fun fight” alert. Vick trains with Lloyd Irvin but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a rapist and we give him a pass. “The Texecutioner” is very tall for the division and should use that to his advantage though that isn’t always the case. James enjoys a good scrap too much but so far he has survived with his kicking game and submissions should he ever choose to employ them with more frequency.

Ze German is a natural athlete with god given power in all facets. Hein is a squat fella with really good Judo skills in his back pocket. Nick has to get in close to do his combination work which could prove difficult.

The pundits have Vick running away with this one but we’re not so sure. The intrigue of a brawl could get James into serious trouble here but if he uses a smart game plan attacking at range he should take this exciting contest on the cards.
WINNER-James Vick by Decision

Yves Edwards (42-21-1,1) -250 vs. Akbarh Arreola (22-8-1) +195

Perennial favorite and “Thugjitsu” master Yves Edwards continues his battle against the clock and will always be the “People’s” and the “OG” UFC Lightweight Champion. There are a lot of years on Edwards body at this point and the jaw has taken a drubbing in recent times. But let’s not forget how creative and brilliant Yves striking is and that his veteran fight I.Q. is always top notch. 

Akbarh is a grappler who enjoys taking a blast to the face to his detriment. There isn’t much else to say except this guy isn’t long for the division.

By now you should know, MMAFO generally doesn’t pick against are beloved ATT vet. Add to the fact this is his home state and nearing the end of a Hall of Fame career, and this is the “Thugjitsu” masters night. Edwards employs a smart fight staying away until the opening appears before starching Arreola like Nogueira did to Schaub in Brazil!
WINNER-Yves Edwards by Rd.2 Flying Knee KO

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Paige VanZant (3-1) -140 vs. Kailin Curran (3-0) +110

Hey ladieeeeeees, what’s up? We got a couple lovelies here fellas. Paige has been lauded because of her amazing model looks, I mean, let’s not lie here. VanZant is pretty good everywhere, but has zero power to offer in her little, delicate, delicious, athletic, fit, frame. Oh, excuse us, we got a little lost in her picture there. Paige also bolted from Team Alpha Male and trained back home for this after a spinal injury which should raise some red flags.

Curran fights out of Reign MMA and has true potential. She is barely into her fighting career at this point, and though Paige has faced better talent thus far, has a kicking game with power, and crisp hands that hopefully won’t mark up VanZant to badly.

This isn’t a looks contest, though Curran is lovely as well, and we’re not seeing why the UFC signed Paige at this point. Well, save for they are going to push her looks more than skill obviously. Kailin should easily hold sway in the stand up and have little fear of Paige working her over on the ground with her lack of power. Its Curran all day and we hope they kiss and make out when its over. Er, make up.
Upset Pick WINNER-Kailin Curran by Sexy Decision

Juan Puig (11-3) -400 vs. Dooho Choi (11-1) +300

The “Korean Zombie 2.0” is here. Choi is very similar in his style to Chan Sung Jung and picks up where he left off. The South Korean loves to get wild in there throwing crazy shit with reckless abandon. This is a showcase intro for Dooho as Puig has nothing to offer and exits our conscious after this thumping.
WINNER-Dooho Choi by Rd.1 Off The Cage Spinning Rage Punch


UFC Fight Night Start Times
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

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