UFC 181 Hendricks vs. Lawler 2: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds Ya'll

December 6, 2014
Mandalay Bay Event Center
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card on PPV:

Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks (16-2) -210 vs. Robbie Lawler (24-10-1) +170 [Rematch]

We are lucky little MMA fans indeed when you get a rematch from what may be the "Fight of the Year" of 2014. The Bass Pro "Bigg Rigg" is back from biceps surgery to defend his shiny new belt. Hendricks looked to be in good shape via the Dolce diet and when healthy, is a stellar power wrestler with a great double leg and a heavy, heavy top game. The submissions aren't necessarily there, but holy shit the power sure as hell is on the feet. This guy bombs like a prime Dan Henderson and is a sturdy country boy.

"The Ruthless One" just keeps improving much to our surprise in continuing this unforeseen career rejuvenation. Lawler brings big power too but has really shown better combination work with his hands, and is bringing some really nice kicks into the arsenal as well. Lawler can tire out in bouts and despite being the big brooding type, he can be damaged which severely limits his output down the stretch.

This is a coin flip just like the 1st meeting but we're taking Lawler and we're gonna tell you why. Rob has been putting in work defeating Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown while Hendricks has been sitting recuperating. This title fight was moved up when Chris Weidman got injured for the 50th time in a row, giving the already idle Johny less time to prepare. The Oklahoman cuts more weight than almost anybody pound4pound in MMA, and though he did look on point, that is a lot to carry around while the already more active striking Robbie is matching you in power shots. Avoiding the tie ups with Johny and using an even more varied attack than the 1st meeting, Lawler steals this late and we see a trilogy on the horizon with Rory MacDonald angrily waiting in the wings while GSP taps him on the shoulder to say, "I'm back, and have not been impressed with your performances."
Upset Pick WINNER-Robbie Lawler by Decision

Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis (17-2) -285 vs. Gilbert Melendez (22-3) +225

The most anticipated fight on the card for MMAFO, and a potential "Fight of the Year" candidate. "Pretty Tony" Pettis returns from yet another rash of injuries and a completely unnecessarily long layoff to do another damned reality show that was just like the previous 87 shows. Anywho, "Showtime" is finally back and looking to defend his strap he won some 16 fucking months ago! C'mon! Its the Lightweight division. One of the most competitive and interesting weight classes of all and the UFC holds up the belt for another goddamned reality show! God dammit! Sorry, sorry. We gets a little upset. Big brother Pettis knows how to place his kicks in rapid fire succession to do the most damage and is really becoming one of the best leg men in the sport today. We all know how creative he is, and he's just as likely to pull a submission out of thin air as he is to leap off the top of the Octagon with a superman punch.

The storm that is "El Nino" has a different approach. He is more the continually come forward with combinations and standard movement while working in some takedowns to keep his foes honest, and quietly ratcheting up the power to surprise you. 

Both men have never been finished in their respective careers. This is a bad styles match for Melendez. Pettis' striking is based upon his movement/angles and speed while Gil is more plodding, and never busy enough for our liking. It would seem Anthony is going to do much like lil' brother in his fight this evening, and pick away at the challenger from the outside out landing him with punches while Melendez losing yet another razor close title fight which disappoints us greatly. MMAFO believes the UFC Wants Pettis to be their champion and that is why they allowed him to be on the shelf for so long which is unacceptable. But, this is gonna be a great fight so we'll shut up now and just enjoy it. Let's go Skrap Pack!
WINNER-Anthony Pettis by Decision

Travis Browne (16-2-1) -350 vs. Brendan Schaub (10-4) +265

"Hapa" learned the ultimate humbling lesson last out against Fabricio Werdum and Travis went back to the drawing board,  but with a positive attitude. This big fella has really been improving and his last loss is one of those that could really help a fighter. Browne has only improved with every outing with long legged kicking and very strong stand up skills. The guy has decent cardio for a Heavyweight and fights pretty intelligently.

Schaub doesn't fight smart very often, and has a very suspect chin that Browne will no doubt be targeting. MMAFO just doesn't think much of Schaub as a Heavyweight in the UFC, but his podcast isn't bad. 

Travis should find that glass jaw more often than not, and in the interim, Brendan doesn't have anything to scare the Hawaiian with.

WINNER-Travis Browne by Rd.2 TKO

Todd Duffee (8-2) -325 vs. Anthony Hamilton (13-3) +250

Oh jesus, Todd Duffee is back. Boy, for an absolute giant specimen of a man, this guy can't stay healthy for shit. If he isn't getting your regular knicks and knacks of injuries, he's contracting rare diseases. If the "Duffman" is a shell of what he was, he should win backed by his powerful striking on points. If not, who knows? 
WINNER-Todd Duffee by Rd.2 TKO

Tony Ferguson (16-3) -270 vs. Abel Trujillo (12-5) +210

Ferguson is a talented Lightweight with long limbs, technical striking that is quite pretty to watch, and he isn't afraid to get crazy with the subs trying to look for the finish which we at MMAFO appreciate greatly. Tony is strong for the division moves really well improving visibly each time out.

Abel Trujillo beats women and is a piece of shit. Follow the link and spread the word about what human garbage he is. 

http://www.mmafighting.com/2012/12/9/3748316/the-problem-with-promoting-abel-trujillo

WINNER-Tony Ferguson by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Urijah Faber (31-7) -650 vs. Francisco Rivera (10-3,1) +425

"The California Kid" is back looking to end the year on a high note. Should Faber defeat Rivera by tap, he will tie legend Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira for most submission victories for a Pride/WEC/UFC fighter. Not bad company to be in at all.

"Cisco" has a puncher's chance here and that's it. Rivera doesn't have a ground game to speak of and he will be put on his ass as Faber admitted to knowing about the potential record and straight up saying he's going to look for the sub. 

Urijah avoids the haymaker's and hits the single on Francisco taking him into the void and making him say "uncle" putting a nice ribbon on the prelims and giving Faber a nice ending to a controversial and disappointing year.

WINNER-Urijah Faber by Rd.1 Submission

Eddie Gordon (7-1) -145 vs. Josh Samman (10-2) +115

Well, Josh Samman has had a rough go of things recently, "don't text and drive kids," and now returns from his lengthy layoff. Samman is a decent sort of grappler who doesn't offer much else besides being a natural athlete.

Serra-Longo's "Truck" comes forward like a semi striking with nasty power and good enough takedown defense to halt what Josh is bringing.

Eh, we see more upside with Gordon but both guys need a lot of work to round out their games. Samman just isn't as threatening with the offensive game as Ed who wins on points, if'n he doesn't stop Josh late.

WINNER-Eddie Gordon by Decision

Corey Anderson (4-0) -400 vs. Justin Jones (3-0) +300

"Beastin' 25/8" (can't decide if that nickname is brilliant or moronic) comes in after winning TUF 19 to get his 1st real test in the Octagon. Anderson is your standard wrestler green to the rest of the arts. 

Jones is coming in on late notice, is a brawler by choice, and is really a Middleweight seeking opportunity at Light Heavyweight. We think you can fill in the rest.

WINNER-Corey Anderson by Rd.2 TKO

Raquel Pennington (4-4) +160 vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-0) -200

AES, the man/chick killer known for besting transgender fighter Fallon Fox, gets the call up with Holly Holm came down with a neck injury (make your own joke you childish heathens). Smith should look to take Pennington down not wishing to get into a mad brawl that would benefit Raquel. This fight is nip and tuck with Raquel defending about half the takedowns, but the other half are enough for the rookie to get the debut win in the judges eyes.

WINNER-Ashlee Evans-Smith by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Sergio Pettis (11-1) -260 vs. Matt Hobar (9-2) +200

Can we be honest for a moment? Do you really think the UFC is going to match up Anthony Pettis' little brother with someone he can't defeat on his brothers big night? Conspiracy? Not really. Its just smart marketing. Young Sergio stays at range peppering Hobar for the 15.

WINNER-Sergio Pettis by Decision

Clay Collard (13-5) -115 vs. Alex White (10-1) -110

The curtain jerker isn't so easy to call as 2 unproven Featherweights meet for what looks like a promising scrap. Both men like to strike but with different techniques. White wants to kill you with power while Collard looks to overwhelm opponents with volume punching. We thinks Collard by activity and creativity if nothing else. 

WINNER-Clay Collard by Decision

Main Card on PPV: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT