UFC 192 Cormier vs. Gustafsson: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

October 3, 2015

Toyota Center

Houston, Texas

Main Card on PPV:

Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier (16-1) -325 vs. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3) +250

"DC" looks to defend his belt for the 1st time and Gustafsson somehow is the opponent even though he is coming off a TKO loss which is baffling. A lot has been made of the size and reach advantage for Alex but the story should be about "Lusty Gusty" looking for redemption in his 2nd title fight and Cormier trying to best the challenger to get the now cleared and returning Jon Jones who never lost the title.

The "Mauler" is going to look to fight behind his long sturdy jab while keeping distance and avoiding the takedowns at all costs. Alexander is actually a bit underrated on the floor but grappling with "DC" is just silly. The Swede should have not only a size advantage but the speed factor as well.

Cormier is the stellar wrestler who took a monster punch from "Rumble" Johnson and bounced right back. Daniel is tough as they come and has a litany of ways to get Alex to the ground where he can dominate. His small stature could be an advantage as he ducks under oncoming punches and slips inside for a trip, high crotch slam, knee tap, or just your standard body to body attack. "DC's" combination striking is also a bit underrated which allows him to fight into the clinch.

Its hard to imagine Cormier losing this contest. His skills are far superior than Alex in the grappling and we're not so sure "Emelianegro" couldn't win a kickboxing bout either. Gustafsson is a good fighter but was rocketed into another level when he fought well against "Bones," but didn't win. "Lusty Gusty" has fallen every time he hits the upper echelon of the division (losses to Jon Jones, Anthony Johnson, Phil Davis) and his best win is over Jimi Manuwa who isn't even a Top 10 level Light Heavyweight. 

Alex's record and reputation is a bit inflated while "DC" is a man on a mission with Olympic level skills. Cormier makes a statement in this fight roughing up Gustafsson for a while before securing the finish in the championship rounds.
WINNER- Daniel Cormier by Rd.4 Submission

Hendricks vs. Woodley I

Johny Hendricks (17-3) vs. Tyron Woodley (15-3)

CANCELLED. It turns out that Johny may have been a little heavier than he admitted coming into this bout as his body shut down Thursday night and he was taken to the Emergency Room. Hendricks was given an IV which we all know now is banned by the new rules. Thus, this contest has been scrapped. 

Tyron Woodley was justifiably frustrated with this result but UFC President Dana White has named him the #1 contender to face the winner of Champion Robbie Lawler versus Carlos Condit (TBD). 

Hendricks may be heading to Middleweight as the weight issue continues to hamper his career.
WINNER-Nobody

Ryan Bader (19-4) +135 vs. Rashad Evans (19-3-1) -165

"Suga" has finally returned after being off with injuries for the past 37 years. Evans is one of the main men at the Blackzilians camp but how rusty will he be after the prolonged absence? Rashad is a solid striker when he has a mind to throw some punches which will be key against a foe who can wrestle at his level if not better. Rashad is now 36 and hasn't looked elite for years now. Consider that after his loss to Jon Jones (which was a decent effort) he tried to stare Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to death which resulted in back to back losses. Then Evans rebounded against two blown up and old Middleweights Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen respectively. This guy has simply never been the same since getting KO'd by Lyoto Machida.

"Darth" Bader is pissed! Unjustly passed over for a title shot by the UFC, he is looking to force them to anoint him the #1 contender. Ryan has crazy power in his hands and strength though at times his cardio has faltered. Even so, Bader has won 4 in a row while remaining active and improving his game.

We simply have no faith left in Rashad and believe he is ready to hang up the gloves after a few paydays. Bader however, is hungry as hell and looking to make somebody pay. "Darth" attempts more offense than Evans and should have a slight grappling advantage. The young surpasses the old as Bader pulls the small upset on the cards.
Upset Pick WINNER-Ryan Bader by Decision

Shawn Jordan (18-6) +150 vs. Ruslan Magomedov (13-1) -185

"Leopard" has won 8 in a row (2-0 for the UFC) and is a counter striker with great takedown defense not that he would need it against Jordan. The lanky big man who can fight the fight while Shawn either wins or loses within a round. We just don't think Jordan is very good and will roll with the upstart.
WINNER-Ruslan Magomedov by Rd.2 TKO

Jessica Eye (11-3) +195 vs. Julianna Pena (7-2) -250

Real talk, Eye is overrated. She's a boxer in MMA with poor defensive skills and a weak chin.

Pena brings the pressure game and has a mean streak that many fighters today lack. Jules will own Jessica on the canvas and hang quite well on the feet. We gots the "Venezuelan Vixen" all day here.

WINNER-Julianna Pena by Decision

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Joseph Benavidez (19-4) -325 vs. Ali Bagautinov (13-3) +250

Everyone welcome back cheater Ali! Baggy got popped for steroids and he's now back to take a beating as further punishment from "Jobama." "Joe B-Wan Kenobi" is the best in the division (behind "Mighty Mouse") and a pound4pound stud. Bring it you Russian cheater. "The Beefcake" is going to teach you a lesson.
WINNER-Joseph Benavidez by Decision

Yair Rodriguez (5-1) -300 vs. Daniel Hooker (12-5) +230

"Pantera" (what a great nickname, CFH!) brings some great kicks to the show and knows how to use the range to his advantage. Rods kicks may be flashy but he's also got some nice Jiu-Jitsu in the back pocket.

The prostitute is a very tough grappler who has found recent success on the feet though that may have been kind of a luck one time event. 

This fight is much closer than the lines depict but we slightly favor Yair to keep this standing for the most part and he has the advantage there in this back and forth affair.

WINNER-Yair Rodriguez by Division

Alan Jouban (12-3) +230 vs. Albert Tumenov (15-2) -300

Not real sure why Alan is getting no love from the critics and fans coming into this fight. Jouban really knows how to bang but more importantly is tough as hell and has endurance for days. There is an anger and viciousness in this kid that we really appreciate.

"Einstein" is a big time hitter who crushes fools with single blows. We're not sure Tumenov can hang with the pace Alan is going to put upon him but this is going to be a close crowd pleaser.

Upset Pick WINNER-Alan Jouban 

Another Dog Lover!

Rose Namajunas (2-2) -270 vs. Angela Hill (2-1) +210

This is an intriguing fight. "Thug" Rose is a tough as nails chick who grapples with grace and ease while Hill is the kickboxer trying to incorporate more MMA skills into her game. Angela is very green but her potential is very high. Hill is much stronger than Rose but this is quite a step up in competition for a lady coming off a loss.

This is just too much at this point as Namajunas plays around a bit on the feet before finding her way on the mat where she dominates with a finish.

WINNER-Rose Namajunas by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Adriano Martins (27-7) +100 vs. Islam Makhachev (12-0) -130

The favorite here is know for being the training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov. The nation of Islam is Sambo grappler who strikes his way in much like Daniel Cormier. Makhachev is younger, faster, and stronger than his foe.

Martins is a decent striker but he's going for a ride tonight to duplex city as Islam remains undefeated.

WINNER-Islam Makhachev

Chris Cariaso (17-7) +150 vs. Sergio Pettis (12-2) -185

Chris has better wrestling skills than his youthful opponent and can hang with the elite though he won't defeat them. He's your typical jack of all trades, master of none.

The knock on Pettis is that the kid has zero chin, which is true. Luckily, Zuffa gave him an opponent with pillow fists. Sergio should he better standing and keeps the fight there while adding up points and keeping his face safe.
WINNER-Sergio Pettis by Decision

Derrick Lewis (12-4) +135 vs. Viktor Pesta (10-1) -165

Part-time fighter alert! Derrick Lewis is not about this life! The "Black Beast" has admitted he is only doing this MMA thang until he pays off his house. As we have seen so far, if he can't stop you with a big punch early, he gasses and falls apart. However, we just don't see Pesta surviving that early onslaught.
WINNER-Derrick Lewis by Rd.1 KO

Francisco Trevino (12-1) +325 vs. Sage Northcutt (5-0) -450

Trevino may be a robot based upon how he looks when he fights. Franny can do it all, but just not at a UFC level.

Northcutt is the prospect with a ton of hype coming off the Looking For A Fight TV show. Sage is a karate striker with ground skills as well and is set up here to run over the Texan for a spectacular debut. 
WINNER-Sage Northcutt by Decision
* Trevino missed weight by 4 lbs.

UFC 192 Start Times

Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT