Sunday, December 06, 2015

The Ultimate FighterSeason 22 Finale: Edgar vs. Mendes: Picks, Prognostications, Odds


December 11, 2015
The Chelsea at the Cosmopolitan
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card

Frankie Edgar (18-4-1) -150 vs. Chad Mendes (17-3) +120

Edgar has won 4 in a row since dropping his Featherweight debut to Champion Jose Aldo. Frankie is always good everywhere and uses his speed and agility to frustrate opponents while racking up the points with his "catch me if you can" style.

"Money" is on a bit of a rough stretch failing in 2 of his last 3 though they were to Champion Jose Aldo and on short notice to Conor McGregor respectively. The Team Alpha Male member is a great wrestler with "Tyson style" Featherweight power in his hands.

Maybe Chad catches Frankie with that big bomb and puts him away, but more likely its what we always see from Edgar. The #1 contender dance and dizzies Mendes en route to a judges nod. Should be fun though.

WINNER-Frankie Edgar by Decision

Edson Barboza (16-3) +150 vs. Tony Ferguson (20-3) -185

We don't believe in you Barboza. We've see your bonehead mistakes in the cage and find your chin suspect. Ferguson can make some dumb decisions as well going for high risk moves, but he is more talented than the Brazilian and is streaking right now.

WINNER-Tony Ferguson by Decision

TUF 22 Lightweight Final

Artem Lobov (11-10-1) vs. Ryan Hall (4-1)

Hall trains at Tristar and was one of the very few bright spots on TUF 22. He's a really interesting cat with a unique take on the world that MMAFO identifies with. Ryan is a great submission grappler and his specialty is hunting down legs and snapping them off. We don't think much of Lobov and see Ryan winning this one quickly.

WINNER-Ryan Hall by Rd.1 Submission

Joe Lauzon (24-11) +165 vs. Evan Dunham (15-6) -205

This is a strange 155 fight between two awkward and unpredictable fighters. Unpredictable in that "J-Lau" is liable to go for anything as long as he gets a "Fight of the Night" bonus whether he wins or loses, and you never know which version of Dunham is going to show up. 

Lauzon is a good dude and a great submission fighter who allows himself to get into brawls just for the fun of it.

Evan is a pretty decent grappler who also gets drawn into melee's when he should not.

This is a toss up but at this stage in their careers, Evan should have more left in the tank. We wouldn't be surprised at any ending here but it should be fun and Dunham prolly earns more points gaining at least 2 of 3 rounds.

WINNER-Evan Dunham by Decision

Ryan LaFlare (11-1) -230 vs. Mike Pierce (17-6) +180

Mikey is returning after a 2 year absence after having his knee ripped apart by the pathological Rousimar Palhares. Pierce has always been a grinding wrestler with heavyish hands but not the best boxing.

LaFlare is a pretty well rounded talent who ran into Demian Maia last out to garner his 1st career loss.

It's been too long to count on Pierce here and Ryan has more game anyhow.

WINNER-Ryan LaFlare by Decision

Tatsuya Kawajiri (34-8-2) -250 vs. Jason Knight (12-2) +195

The "Crusher" was one of our favorite Pride FC fighters back in the day but at 37 he came to the UFC too late. Kawajiri is always going to have his solid wrestling skills and can execute submissions in the right spots. 

Knight has won 8 in a row and our hearts won't let us pick him.

WINNER-Tatsuya Kawajiri by Decision

Joby Sanchez (7-1) -115 vs. Geane Herrera (8-1) -115

Herrera is stepping in for Justin Scoggins and we've got Joby in this "who cares" bout.

WINNER-Joby Sanchez by Whatever

Gabriel Gonzaga (16-10) -115 vs. Konstantin Erokhin (9-2) -115

Erokhin is an absolute giant of a human being but looked awful in his debut loss in January. Even so, Konstantin is a massive striker and Gonzaga has been (T)KO'd 8 times in his career including his last two efforts. Gabe is done in MMA and this will be the coffin nail.

WINNER-Konstantin Erokhin by Rd.1 KO

Julian Erosa (14-2) vs. Marcin Wrzosek (10-2)

"Juicy J" (ahem) has won 4 in a row and is making his promotional debut as is the also 4 fight bouncing "Polish Zombie." To be quite honest we have no idea who these guys are.

WINNER-Julian Erosa by Decision?

Chris Gruetzemacher (12-1-0) vs. Abner Lloveras (19-7-1)

Gruteschmachinachinacher, Grutsenbacher... okay, "Gritz" has won 11 contests in a row and fights out of Arizona's MMA Lab. 

The Spaniard has won 4 in a row and is outmatched here.

WINNER-Chris Gruetzemacher by Decision

Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelim on UFC Fight Pass: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT

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