UFC Fight Night 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

Art by DANIEL GOLAND

January 17, 2016

TD Garden

Boston, Massachusetts

Main Card on FS1:

Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (12-2) -140 vs. Dominick Cruz (20-1) +110

"Mr. Glass" returns from his 88th ACL knee injury to try and claim the crown he left behind in 2011. Dominick may be able to embarrass the slow witted TJ with his gift of gab, and claim Dillashaw apes his style, but now its time to prove it.

Cruz is the linear Bantamweight champion but he hasn't fought consistently in years. Dominick may not be able to finish a can of Mountain Dew but he is one of the best defensive fighters in the world who is able to frustrate opponents as they continually miss with strikes and he peppers in punches here and there to win rounds. The Alliance fighter knows how to win rounds and avoid damage. Cruz has only been defeated once via submission at the hands of his arch enemy Urijah Faber.

TJ has had his share of controversy as of late in a highly public and ugly split from Team Alpha Male to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado but his results in two years speak volumes. After a Split Decision loss to Raphael Assuncao in '13, "Dilly" ran off 4 straight wins and dismantled Renan Barao twice. Coach Duane Ludwig also helped mold TJ's new style into a fleet of foot volume striker with nasty power at 135. Now Dillashaw has confidence and a winning style he trusts even if he is a dullard. 

Both men uses angles deftly but TJ brings the attack while Cruz shies away to utilize counter striking. The difference between the two men will not be speed or intelligence, but power. Cruz can't hurt a wounded fly while TJ can take your head off. Dominick can hit his knee taps all night long but he's not submitting anyone. If Robbie Lawler versus Carlos Condit taught us anything, power is preferred by MMA judges over volume. The champ will spend time on his back but he's going to land the bigger punches en route to retaining his title.

WINNER-TJ Dillashaw by Decision

Anthony Pettis (18-3) -335 vs. Eddie Alvarez (26-4) +255

Goddamn this is an interesting and exciting fight! Both men are elite 155ers who are looking to get into a title fight with a win here. 

Eddie came into the UFC from Bellator losing a tough decision to Donald Cerrone but then showed his heart in a comeback win over Gilbert Melendez. The Philly native is a great striker with stellar movement and an awesome leaping right hand. Alvarez prefers to strike but he can grapple when forced to with quick scrambling and a penchant for chokes. As always, we must mention that Ed gets clipped and drops in most contests though he generally recovers well.

"Showtime" lost his title last March when Rafael dos Anjos took him to school in an old fashion ass kicking. Deficient wrestling has plagued Pettis throughout his career but there is no doubt that the Roufusport fighter is very creative and strikes with amazing skills. 

Through the grappling out the window as these two boys are going to throw down. In a striking affair, you have to favor "Showtime." Pettis gets hurt far too often and he'll suffer from the array of striking coming his way and the inability to avoid taking damage. Anthony begins his march back to the title with an exciting win.

WINNER-Anthony Pettis by Decision

Travis Browne (17-3-1) -155 vs. Matt Mitrione (9-4) +125

Ronda's boy from a brutal beating at the hands of Andrei Arlovski to try his luck against the horrible decision making of "Meathead."

So, both men have big power, good athletic movement on the feet, and solid cardio, but the glaring difference here is that Mitrione has shown time and time again that he cannot make the correct decision in the cage. We at MMAFO love us some double "m" but its impossible to trust him at this point. Maybe Mitrione can outlast Browne in a war, but how the hell can you count on that? 

Even so, we cheer Mitrione on and hope beyond hope that he can best "Hapa" in whatever way gets his hand raised!

WINNER-Travis Browne by Decision

Ross Pearson (20-9, 1) -155 vs. Francisco Trinaldo (18-4) +125

The "Real Deal" is a confusing one. He has great skills but sometimes he looks glacial like against Al Iaquinta and Evan Dunham. Pearson also gets hit far too often and does not wear it well cutting easily and bruising up for the judges to see. 

"Massaranduba" has won 4 in a row relying upon his power but he does have some ground skills as well. Trinaldo has great takedowns and can take a round punishing from top.

We like Ross a lot but he's is too inconsistent and is facing some real power that can hurt him. We expect a close one but favor the Brazilian to continue his recent improvements and take a close fought decision. Its a shame too, cause Pearson is one of the good guys in the sport.

Upset Pick WINNER-Francisco Trinaldo by Decision

Prelims on FS1:

http://www.shomanart.com/details.php?prodId=223&category=
Buy this awesome art by EVAN SHOMAN

Patrick Côté (23-9) -105 vs. Ben Saunders (19-6-2) -125

Ain't no party like a "Killa-B" party, cause a "Killa-B" party don't stop. MMAFO has been Saunders supporters from the early days and won't stop now. Cote is a strong tough fighter but he is slow, old, and though he still possesses power, his grappling which he has been relying on as of late, is highly overrated. Ben is lethal off his back winning MMAFO's 2014 "Submission of the Year" and continuing to train with Jiu-Jitsu master Eddie Bravo at 10th planet. The "B" can also bring a knee party to fruition reminiscent of a prime Anderson Silva. We just cannot be impartial here so take it as you will. "Killa-B" for the win bitches!

WINNER-Ben Saunders by Rd.2 Submission

Chris Wade (10-1) -325 vs. Mehdi Baghdad (11-3) +250

Mairbek Taisumov had to drop out of the fight due to visa issues and thus the "Sultan" gets the call up on a 7 fight bounce. The Black House fighter has been competing in RFA and is well rounded.

Long Island's Wade has won 5 in a row and is 3-0 for Zuffa. Chris has hard ass kicks but that's only to distract before he takes you to the floor and crushes your soul. Wade is very strong and if he doesn't end this while standing, he'll find a choke on the ground.

WINNER-Chris Wade by Rd.2 TKO

Tim Boetsch (18-9) -230 vs. Ed Herman (23-11, 1) +180

The "Barbarian" horde descends upon Herman's trailer park for a slaughter. This could be a battle of who is the slowest fighter in the world of MMA, but its a fight. Ed will have no answer for Tim's power as Herman gets the lights shut out early.

WINNER-Tim Boetsch by Rd.1 KO

Maximo Blanco (12-6-1, 1) -130 vs. Luke Sanders (10-0) +100

"Maxi" is a schizophrenic fighter with crazy athleticism and natural power. The undefeated Sanders is going to play right into the Brazilian's hands engaging in a bone throwing war he cannot win.

WINNER-Maximo Blanco by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Paul Felder (10-2) -260 vs. Daron Cruickshank (16-7) +200

This should be a fun one. Both guys have great and exciting striking that is going to make this a barn burner of a fight. Expect a lot of "spinning shit" and punches in bunches but know the "Irish Dragon" will stand supreme. Paul will counter more than expected and has the strength advantage. Felder gets off the snide closing the distance and fucking up Daron in the clinch.

WINNER-Paul Felder by Decision

Ilir Latifi (11-4, 1) -270 vs. Sean O’Connell (16-6) +210

Two power punchers meet in the theme of the evening. This is an example of who lands 1st wins. Though O'Connell is the rare "Author of MMA," he's going to eat some "Sledgehammer" punches he cannot come back from. Sorry Sean.

WINNER-Ilir Latifi by Rd.3 TKO

Charles Rosa (10-2) -250 vs. Augusto Mendes (5-0) 
+195

"Boston Strong" is really tough but Mendes is stepping in on very short notice for Jim Hettes. Rosa out grapples Augusto for 15 minutes.

WINNER-Charles Rosa by Decision

Rob Font (11-1) -210 vs. Joey Gomez (6-0) +170

A little bit of advice for Joey G. "War Machine" is a horrible nickname considering the history of that name in the sport, and the fact that its attached to a woman beating moron garbage piece of shit human being. That being said, Gomez gets the call for the big dance against Font who trains with Team Sityodtong outta the local Boston gym. There's a lot of potential here between two men entering their primes but we favor Robby in a close judges nod.

WINNER-Rob Font by Decision

Francimar Barroso (17-4) +125 vs. Elvis Mutapic (16-4) -155

Boring Barroso is abysmal to watch. Elvis is filling in here which doesn't help his chances.

Upset Pick WINNER-Francimar Barroso by Decision

UFC Fight Night 81 Start Times

Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT