UFC Fight Night 85: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

March 20, 2016

Brisbane Entertainment Centre

Brisbane, Australia

Main Card

Mark Hunt (11-10-1) -170 vs. Frank Mir (18-10) +150

Two Heavyweight legends clash in the land down under at a "do-or-die" time in their careers.

Mir revitalized his career last year going 2-1 and creeping back into the Top 10 conversation at the age of 36. Frank is still surprising opponents with ever improving striking and always has that submission acumen in his pocket.

"Hunto" avenged a Draw to Antonio Silva (who failed the PED after their initial meeting) but has found the mountaintop difficult to overcome. The walk off power of the "Super Samoan" still resides in his 41 year old body and now a vegan, Mark is looking to become even healthier late in his career.

Even at his advanced age, Hunt's chin has held well and he won't lose his power. The same cannot be said for Mir. Frank has always wilted under punishment and that will show here once again. It is difficult to get Mark's squat frame to the ground and Frank will be unable to endure on the feet long enough to get things to his world. This is the classic bad style match-up for Mir who gets put away early making MMAFO sad pandas.  Two great competitors here but we've long been Mir supporters.

WINNER-Mark Hunt by Rd.1 TKO

Neil Magny (17-4) -130 vs. Hector Lombard (34-4-1, 2) +110

You've come a long way Mr. Magny. An afterthought initially, Neil has matured greatly in his busy career going a respectable 10-3 for Zuffa. Neil's long limbs allow him to jab safely from the outside while keeping a high work rate and has shown he can grapple with elites like Kelvin Gastelum.

Lombard is an enigma. He screamed from the rafters that he's a clean fighter and then tested positive and got a year long ban for which he is now returning from. Hector has all the power in the world but has been known to coast in bouts and then be bewildered when he loses the decision. Lombard is a crusher in the clinch but the gas tank wains after the opening round.

Magny should weather the opening storm and use his tactical advantages to out point Lombard in what could be a bit of a lackluster fight. Neil has far more tools to score on the cards and the long layoff isn't going to help Hector's work rate or cardio issues. We look for Neil to climb back up the ladder while Lombard may have found the height of where he is going to go in the UFC.

WINNER-Neil Magny by Decision

James Te Huna (18-8) -255 vs. Steve Bosse (10-2) +215

Te Huna is not to be fucked with in his homeland. James always steps up his game in Australia which he will need as he is on a bad 3 fight skid. Getting beaten by aged Nate Marquardt was a very bad sign last June and he's been finished in all of those losses. James likes to bomb with big power but leaves himself wide open to counters.

"The Boss" has far less wear on the tires and uses good faints which should allow him to touch up Te Huna at will. The Canadian carries big power as well in his strikes and it seems that James cannot take the hits anymore. 

It's the last chance for Te Huna who falls in a quick barrage from both men that leaves Steven the last man standing.

Upset Pick WINNER-Steve Bosse by Rd.1 TKO

Jake Matthews (9-1) -105 vs. Johnny Case (22-4) -115

"The Celtic Kid" from Aussie land is 3-1 for Zuffa at the tender age of 21. The game is coming along behind natural athleticism but it's hard to say Matthews dominates any facet of the game. There is a lot of potential here and he's solid if not yet great.

"Hollywood" is on a 12 fight winning streak. Jake comes forward with brutish power while Case relies more on flowing techniques while seamlessly mixing in takedowns while ready to grapple at a moments notice. 

This is gonna be a close one but we think Case will be smarter and more creative en route to the judges nod.

WINNER-Johnny Case by Decision

Daniel Kelly (10-1) +400 vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (6-1, 1) -500

Kelly may be the slowest Middleweight ever seen in the UFC but damned if he didn't come out and steamroll Steve Montgomery last November. The Judo Olympian is also 38 years of age which isn't great.

ATT's "Cara De Sapato" is a prospect who is improving and has a lot of room to do so. Even so, he should cruise here being able to do whatever he wants wherever he wants. "Carl's Jr." is just a better fighter and it would be another miracle if Kelly can just hang for the full 15.

WINNER-Antonio Carlos Junior by Rd.2 Submission

Bec Rawlings (6-4) +105 vs. Seo Hee Ham (16-6) -125

"Rowdy" Bec sure spends a lot of time on social media sporting new and terrible tattoo's and new boobs but her fighting skills have not shown improvement. Rawlings is definitely a scrapper with a wrestling base but wants to bully opponents with her aggressions hoping for mistakes.

The South Korean is also tough as nails but she moves much more gracefully in the cage than her opponent. Ham is actually fighting out of her weight class to compete in the UFC which gives her a size disadvantage every time out. Seo doesn't have power in her hands but she knows how to win rounds and gather points.

This is a close tough fight to call. Rawlings aggression and size may be enough to take the win especially in front of her home crowd but Ham is definitely a slick, difficult opponent. Something tells us Bec will step her game up down under and rally after a slow start to get the win.

Upset Pick WINNER-Bec Rawlings by Decision

Prelims

Brendan O’Reilly (5-1-1) +385 vs. Alan Jouban (12-4) -485

This bout should be on the main card over Kelly/Carlos Junior as Jouban fights are always exciting as hell. "Brahma" is an in your face fighter who scraps like his life depends upon it. Aggressive is an understatement as Jouban throws everything at opponents in a barrage. We don't see much to offer from O'Reilly other than he's the hometown boy but he's going to get blown out in this one.

WINNER-Alan Jouban by Rd.2 TKO

Rich Walsh (9-4) -110 vs. Viscardi Andrade (18-7) -110

Walsh sports a helluva beard and a vicious streak the shocks his foes. Andrade is a decent striker but he'll lull you to sleep in the wrong ways. Rich should run his game here in dramatic fashion in a fight that could steal the show.

WINNER-Rich Walsh by Decision

Ross Pearson (18-10) +100 vs. Chad Laprise (10-1) -120

Yup, that's Ross way down here on a UFC Fight Night card. Pearson cannot get any consistency going in his career alternating wins and losses in the last few years. "The Real Deal" is a great guy with a varied skill set but there are just times the Alliance fighter looks old, and times he is on point. Its hard to know what to expect but Pearson does cut and bruise badly which doesn't help his cause in front of the judges.

"The Disciple" got overcome by Francisco Trinaldo last August but he's got far less wear on his body than Ross. Laprise is primarily a kickboxer but he's solid and coming along in his game.

MMAFO just has this terrible feeling that Pearson is nearing the end of his career. He just takes damage terribly and has been waining for some time now. Ross is ripe for the picking and this is the chance for the upstart to begin making his name. Hopefully we're wrong, but we feel Canada over Britain.

WINNER-Chad Laprise by Decision

Leslie Smith (7-6-1) -160 vs. Rin Nakai (16-1-1) +140

Nakai, or "Bug Lady" (give it a Google) is a bizarre cat in a squat frame with a bloated record. She is also coming off a very long injury layoff.

Smith has been through the ringer in her career taking fights with the top echelon of talent throughout her career. Her game is solid everywhere but she'll look to employ takedown defense here and box up Rin. 

WINNER-Leslie Smith by Decision

Alan Patrick Silva Alves (12-1) -250 vs. Damien Brown (15-8) +210

"Nuguette" got his 1st career loss last out but Brown is coming in for his UFC debut on short notice. Alves should have his time in this throwaway bout.

WINNER-Alan Patrick Silva Alves by Decision

Daniel Hooker (12-6) -200 vs. Mark Eddiva (6-2) +170

"The Hangman" is tough as they come but taking punches isn't going to win you anything but a reputation. Even so, Eddiva isn't long for the UFC as he eyes the minor leagues after this loss. It'll be a fun scrap with no real implications.

WINNER-Daniel Hooker by Decision