The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

July 8, 2016

MGM Grand Garden Arena

Las Vegas, Nevada

TUF 23 Finale Fight Card

Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11-0) -130 vs. Claudia Gadelha (13-1) +100 [Rematch]

Joanna "Champion" meets her greatest rival in a rematch that had to happen! Both of these ladies hated each other before the TUF 23 season and the initial meeting was a bloody affair with punches after the bell and finger pointing all the way through. The 2nd meeting is only going to get nastier.

Jedrzejczyk set the world on fire when she joined the UFC in '14 with her fiery personality and some of the best striking we have ever seen in women's MMA. The Pole is an absolute mental machine fearing nothing and striking with the precision and power of a guillotine. This beauty, is to be feared!

Gadelha is no joke either. Claudia is a staunch wrestler who has developed her striking but its her grappling skills that have elevated her career. The Brazilian is a naturally muscular athlete who hasn't been as active as the Strawweight Champion because of injury and the long TUF season. 

The 1st meeting was razor close but truth be told, MMAFO scored the bout for Claudia as did many other genius media outlets. Gadelha's takedowns are very effective and she has guts for days. Joanna has improved her already great takedown defense but Claudia is built to defeat her. The Brazilian has improved her striking more than Jedrzejczyk improved her grappling. Did you know, that the only woman to out strike Joanna in the UFC is... you guessed it, Claudia Gadelha. If this is coming down to the wire, and we believe it is, Gadelha will even the score on the judges cards. We are still rooting for Joanna to knock that hideous mole off Claudia's face but, you know, thoughts. Here's hoping we're wrong and Joanna, we still love you. XOXO

Upset Pick WINNER-Claudia Gadelha by Decision

TUF 23 Light Heavyweight Final

Nobody cares.

TUF 23 Women’s Strawweight Final

And nobody cares. 

Ross Pearson (19-10) +275 vs. Will Brooks (17-1) -365

The (now) former Bellator Lightweight Champion "Ill" Will Brooks has made the jump to the big leagues. The ATT fighter has won 8 in a row based upon his tight grappling skills.

Ross "The Boss" is a longtime favorite of ours but the writing is on the wall. Pearson has been alternating between wins and losses for the last 3 years, unable to get any momentum going. "The Real Deal" is a great guy, good boxer (though slow), and a decent grappler (though he doesn't like to employ those skills). What Ross is best known for is seamlessly transitioning between every aspect of the striking game to keep his opposition guessing. 

Pearson has a tendency to get bruised and cut very easily. Ross is also going to have a easily visible speed disadvantage against the prime Brooks. We fully expect Will to dominate this contest by engaging just enough striking before taking things down to control on the canvas. It'll be a successful debut for Brooks before he gets on the mic where he can really shine.

WINNER-Will Brooks by Decision

Doo Ho Choi (13-1) -205 vs. Thiago Tavares (20-6-1) +165

"The Korean Superboy" is the real deal folks. 11 wins in a row. 7 in a row by fisticuffs stoppages. Age 25. Choi is a true Featherweight prospect and on the rise.

Tavares is a serviceable fighter who we were shocked to discover is only 31 years of age. The years have not exactly been kind as Thiago has been through some wars over time. The veteran has garnered a 10-6-1 record that began way back in '07. Tavares is a good Jiu-Jitsu practitioner with a lot of experience. 

This is the perfect choice to test Doo Ho. Tavares presents the problems needed to challenge the young upstart. Thiago is a well rounded veteran who excels in Choi's weak areas, but he also has a weak chin which can be exploited. Its the right amount of a step up in competition to allow the Korean to improve.

WINNER-Doo Ho Choi by Rd.1 KO

Joaquim Silva (8-0) -130 vs. Andrew Holbrook (11-0) +100

The "o" must go on the prelim sho. The Hoosier is a submission specialist who has tapped 9 men on his resume. 

"Netto BJJ" is also a Jiu-Jitsu specialist, I mean, its in his goddamn nickname.

Two ground fighters ='s a boxing match and that favors Holbrook and his 3 inch reach advantage. Buy American.

Upset Pick WINNER-Andrew Holbrook by Decision

Gray Maynard (11-5-1) -145 vs. Fernando Bruno (15-3) +115

Folks, Gray Maynard is still alive! Who knew? Gray has bounced from camp to camp 5 years but nothing has helped as he seemingly fell apart before our eyes losing 5 of his last 6! Furthermore, "The Bully" was finished in 4 of those meetings and just looks like a shot fighter. Now Gray is making a move down in weight which isn't known to make anyone more durable especially a guy who has had one of the most dramatic falls in MMA history.

"Acougueiro" is a grappler and as long as he has a pulse, we'll pick him to go over Maynard. How can you not after the last years have been so cruel to Gray. We're all just hoping Maynard gets out of this thing alive without permanent injury.

WINNER-Fernando Bruno by Rd.2 Submission

John Moraga (16-4) -185 vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira (11-1-1) +150

John is the Flyweight bridesmaid of the UFC. The guy is a solid fighter but he just can't beat the elite of the division. The MMA Lab fighter is very well rounded and tough but especially keen on subs.

MNP is yet another Nova Uniao fighter who has won 4 in a row and is only 23. 

Upstart with potential or not, we're not bailing out on Moraga yet. The dude's experience is vastly superior while Pereira hasn't done a damn thing yet. Johnny teaches a lesson and gets back to gatekeeping the Flyweight division.

WINNER-John Moraga by Decision

Cezar Ferreira (9-5) +125 vs. Anthony Smith (25-11) -155

"Mutante" burst onto the scene as many claimed him the 2nd coming of his mentor Vitor Belfort, but things haven't worked out that way. Cezar has lost by (T)KO for 4 of his 5 losses all of which came in the 1st round. Ferreira is a big hitter himself but can't take the return shot.

"Lionheart" is on an 8 fight bounce and has a ton of experience at a young 27 which is 4 years less than his opponent. 

Seriously, is anyone still "in" on Ferreira at this point. The guy is proven. Proven to be a flake. "Lionheart's" gonna feast on some mutant flesh.

WINNER-Anthony Smith by Rd.2 TKO

Jake Matthews (10-1) -165 vs. Kevin Lee (12-2) +135

The "Celtic Kid" has only stumbled a single time in his career while claiming a 4-1 record for Zuffa. Matthews has only seen the judges a single time in his career.

Mr. Lee is one of the most cocky individuals in the sport but unlike Conor McGregor, fans love to see him fail. Kevin is 5-2 in the big time and the "Motown Phenom" is a good striker.

Lee isn't as good as he thinks he is and Jake is a solid smooth customer. There's more to Matthews game and he's got the grit to keep going in the bad times while Kevin is a bit of a baby. Have some "Celtic Kid" pride and vote accordingly.

WINNER-Jake Matthews by Decision

Li Jingliang (10-4) -325 vs. Anton Zafir (7-2) +250

The "Leech" is a star in the making because he's got a .500 record and is from China. That's pretty much all you need to remain employed with Zuffa who wants that China market more than Kevin James wants nutella.

Can't say we know anything about Zafir but we're guessing this is a set up for Jingliang to win.

WINNER-Li Jingliang by Decision