UFC Fight Night 95 Cyborg vs. Lansberg: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

September 24, 2016

Ginásio Nilson Nelson

Brasília, Brazil

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:

Cristiane Justino (16-1, 1) -1275 vs. Lina Lansberg (6-1) +825

Here we go with yet another 140 lb. catchweight fight for no damn reason. Why is the UFC forcing "Cyborg" to cut an extra 5 pounds for a division that doesn't exist? Justino is never going to make 135 so let's just stop with all the nonsense. Just let the lady fight at 145 and defend her Invicta FC title which would be a great commercial for the UFC's partner.

It's not exactly a secret that "Femborg" is having a disastrous weight cut. Cris said as much on the MMA Hour Monday and looked ill at the Wednesday staredowns. Justino lost her very 1st professional bout in '05 and hasn't looked back since winning 16 bouts in a row and becoming the most terrifying female MMA fighter in the world! The lady's striking is murderous and nobody, nobody has even come close to defeating her (save for maybe Marloes Coenen). 

The "Elbow Princess" also lost her initial professional bout and has reeled off 6 wins since. The Swede is a helluva Muay Thai competitor who has a sweet ass left high kick reminiscent of a female "Cro Cop." Obviously, Lina enjoys elbows in the clinch and has good footwork.

The real trick here is whether or not the weight cut ruined "Cyborg" for this bout. If she has any semblance of health to her she should rack up yet another win. The troubles of her camp are well known at this point and anything is possible come Saturday night.

WINNER-Cristiane Justino by Rd.1 TKO

Renan Pegado (33-4, 1) -450 vs. Phillipe Nover (11-6-1) +360

"The Baron" is trying to rebuild himself at 145 but his 1st effort was a decision loss to Jeremy Stephens in May. It was a very competitive fight however and Pegado showed improved movement in the opening round. "Barao" is a good striker and scrambler with solid experience.

Nover is 1-1 (both Split Decisions) since returning to the UFC and why he needed to return is anyone's guess. Let's be honest, Phil is not in Renan's league. This scheduling is a bit odd unless the UFC is just feeding Nover to build up Pegado's confidence.

"Barao" all day here as Nover is just not very good.

WINNER-Renan Pegado by Decision

Roy Nelson (21-13) -450 vs. Antonio Silva (19-9-1) +360

"Big Country" versus "Bigfoot." Silva is 1-5-1 over his last 7 bouts and in every single loss, Antonio was stopped by strikes! This is the Heavyweight division and all, but the chances of "Bigfoot" surviving a punch from "Big Country" are astronomical. When Silva loses this he should be cut from the UFC for his own safety. "Easter Island Head" is on the verge of severe brain damage or death before our eyes. Whoever scheduled this is a sadist.

WINNER-Roy Nelson by Rd.1 KO

Francisco Trinaldo (20-4) -130 vs. Paul Felder (12-2) +110

"Massaraduba" has won 6 in a row and is trying to fuck around and become a contender at Lightweight. The 38 year old is a physical specimen with good grappling and boxing. Trinaldo has even defeated his past cardio issues and is throwing high volume these days without slowing late. 

"Cowboy's" friend "The Irish Dragon" is a conundrum. The guy is a hard striker with great durability but he doesn't fight smart. Paul allows himself to be hit and takes risky chances when a steadier approach would win him fights easier and quicker. 

Based upon fight i.q., Franny should win this. Paul is 7 years younger and honestly, we feel as though Francisco has been fighting above himself, but Felder just doesn't fight smart instead opting for brawls.

WINNER-Francisco Trinaldo by Decision

Thiago Santos (13-4) -650 vs. Eric Spicely (8-1) +475

Again, strange matchmaking on this card. Spicely doesn't have a shot against Santos. They are both coming off losses but Thiago's was against Gegard Mousasi for shit's sake! "Marreta" is a solid striker who has been improving greatly.

WINNER-Thiago Santos by Rd.2 TKO

Godofredo Castro (12-4) -150 vs. Mike De La Torre (14-5, 1) +130

"Pepey" about as overrated as they come by MDLT isn't blowing anyone's doors off either. Dunno. Our dislike of Castro is making us pick the underdog.

Upset Pick WINNER-Mike De La Torre by Decision

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Gilbert Burns (11-1) -185 vs. Michel Prazeres (20-2) +160

Whooooooooooooooooo cares?

WINNER-Gilbert Burns by Decision

Rani Yahya (22-8, 1) -140 vs. Michinori Tanaka (11-1) +120

Oh, Yahya, you disappointing fella you. Rani is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in the game but goddamn if he isn't boring in the cage. Not that grapplers are boring, but Yahya is boring. 

Tanaka has put a lot of work in with Team Alpha Male and is well rounded. Mich can actually strike which his opponent cannot do in any aspect.

Yahya can tap about anyone but Tanaka is able to do more than one skill and Rani is no Demian Maia. Look for Michi to escape some close moments but amass enough points to win at least a couple of rounds. Neither guy has good endurance so anything is possible.

Upset Pick WINNER-Michinori Tanaka by Decision

Jussier da Silva (18-4) -200 vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-5) +170

Now this is an intriguing match! Both of these guys are top tier Flyweights who have the skills to contend for the title should Demetrious Johnson finish his current moronic TUF title defense nonsense in the next couple of years.

"Formiga" is an absolutely stellar Jiu-Jitsu player who has improved his game steadily though he still can't seem to advance past the elite of the division (i.e. losses to Henry Cejudo, Joseph Benavidez, John Dodson, & Ian McCall). The striking has really gotten better though Jussier does tend to get lost watching instead of throwing at times.

Ortiz has also struggled with the top players at 125 (Wilson Reis, Joseph Benavidez, & John Moraga) but he too has been improving as he goes along. Dustin is a scrapper's scrapper and every fight is going to be a war.

"Formiga" has the advantage on the floor and the high volume attack from Ortiz will force da Silva to exchange before controlling the fight on the floor.

WINNER-Jussier da Silva by Decision

Erick Silva (18-7, 1) +115 vs. Luan Chagas (14-1-1) -135

What do you do with Mr. Silva? The cat has hard striking but cannot seem to help shitting the bed time and time again. Mistake prone at the highest level but the guy has some definite skills.

Chagas got a Draw in his UFC debut and is pretty unproven. "Tarzan" likes to kick to keep foes at range.

Good luck picking this coin flip match. You can't back either guy but we'll back Silva based upon Octagon experience and little faith.

Upset Pick WINNER-Erick Silva by Decision

Same guy right?

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Alan Patrick Silva Alves (13-1) +145 vs. Stevie Ray (19-5) -165

"Nuguette" is a bit of an awkward kickboxer who comes from the southpaw stance and can use his takedowns to control the bout.

The Harlem Heat member isn't so much well rounded and will likely put on a decent but losing effort. Good luck getting the judges not against a Brazilian in Brazil.

Upset Pick WINNER-APSA by Decision

Vicente Luque (9-5-1) -430 vs. Hector Urbina (17-9-1) +345

Luque is the "Silent Assassin" from the Blackzilians who wishes to avoid the ground and put together combinations. Urbina will try to takedown Vicente but he won't have a ton of success. This bout is build as a stepping stone for Luque via UFC matchmaking.

WINNER-Vicente Luque by Decision

Glaico Franca (13-4) -130 vs. Gregor Gillespie (7-0) +110

Say who what here then? Uh, wrestler by decision?

Upset Pick WINNER-Gregor Gillespie by Decision?

UFC Fight Night 95 Start Times:
Main Card on FS1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Prelims on FS1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT