TUF 24 Finale Johnson vs. Elliot: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

December 3, 2016

Palms Casino Resort

Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card on FS1:

Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson (24-2-1) -1075 vs. Tim Elliot (13-6-1) +610

TUF 24 Flyweight Winner and Titan FC Champion is back in the UFC after getting axed back in '15. Elliot was always a game fighter but he went 2-4 in his initial run and then won 3 in the Titan promotion. The Mizzou fighter is tough as they come but he has a giant though mini-sized mountain to climb.

"Mighty Mouse" has straight owned the 125 division winning 10 bouts in a row under the tutelage of genius coach Matt Hume. Johnson is the Pound4Pound best MMA fighter in the world despite what anybody says. Demetrious has been more consistently dominant (tied with Jon Jones with 10 title wins) and has defended more frequently.

This is cute as Elliot went through a "reality show" to get here but he's far, far, out of his depth. Tim was already a washout and if you're trying to convince MMAFO that he can be the man to Upset the indomitable "Mighty Mouse," know that it ain't going to happen. Demetrious continues to clean out the 125ers with prejudice while looking for someone who can even hang with him.

WINNER-Demetrious Johnson by Rd.3 Submission

Joseph Benavidez (24-4) -190 vs. Henry Cejudo (10-1) +165

"Joe B-Wan Kenobi" has won 5 in a row ever since losing his rematch against Demetrious Johnson in '13. "Joe Jitsu" can beat anyone at Flyweight not named "Mighty Mouse" and has been a dominant professional since '06, only losing to 2 men (Dominick Cruz & the aforementioned MM).

The gold medal winning Cejudo has adapted well in MMA (save for making weight) backed by his amazing wrestling skills and improving but basic boxing. 

We loves us some "Jobama" but we also don't know how he could possibly stay motivated in his current state of purgatory. Benavidez is better and more well rounded but we have that terrible feeling that Joe is going to get restricted from getting anything going. Hope we're wrong.

WINNER-Joseph Benavidez by Decision

Jake Ellenberger (31-11) +220 vs. Jorge Masvidal (30-11) -260

Both of these Welters have struggled to get past the glass ceiling and neither has shown improvement in years. So, based upon what we already know, Masvidal is likely to win a snoozer, though these men do have the skills to compete at a high level, while staring at each other frustrating the bejesus out of MMAFO.

WINNER-Jorge Masvidal by Decision

Ion Cutelaba (12-2) -225 vs. Jared Cannonier (8-1) +185

Ion really impressed us in October when he ran over Jonathan Wilson in a gritty "never say die" fight. The 22 year old "Hulk" from Moldova throws to kill with every single punch but he has the gas to go for 15 doing so. Power and youth can be a dangerous thing.

The "Killa Gorilla" (racist) is uber-strong but lacks the overall technique of Cutelaba. The "Cannon" (our nickname and not racist) is coming down from Heavyweight to make a run.

Provided Jared's weight cut goes well, he could be a force to watch at 205, but not yet. Cannonier needs more time as does Cutelaba but he's ahead of Jared today. Plus, the "Cannon" isn't as durable having been hurt multiple times in previous outings. Ion should win on the cards if'n he doesn't stop Cannonier 1st. 

WINNER-Ion Cutelaba by Decision

#8 Sara McMann (9-3) -180 vs. Alexis Davis (16-6) +158

Let's all welcome Alexis Davis back to MMA after having her 1st child. The "Ally-Gator" went 4-1 for the UFC only losing to then unbeatable Ronda Rousey. Davis likes to strike though she doesn't have much power but her true game is submissions for which she has bested 8 opponents.

McMann was once thought (by MMAFO) to be a future champion. Now, its doubtful. Sara just has not progressed past her dominant wrestling skills for which she heavily relies upon. McMann may be the most powerful woman in the UFC's female roster, which she uses to control opponents on the mat, but her striking is bad.

This is a close one. Both ladies have good skills in their own right, but can Davis pull off a sub while on her back being battered by an Olympic wrestler? Alexis has more volume on offense to win on points but we seriously doubt she'll have the opportunity to staring at the lights. Another smother and mother effort by Sara but wait until Davis gets her groove back.

WINNER-Sara McMann by Decision

Brandon Moreno (12-3) -125 vs. Ryan Benoit (9-4) +105

The "Assassin Baby" (? what, so many questions) has won 9 in a row including catching Flyweight stud Louis Smolka with an armbar in October. Moreno has tapped 9 men and is tough.

"Baby Face" (wait, seriously? "Assassin Baby" versus "Baby Face?" what is going on here?) is a wrestling grinder with hard hands but has been caught a couple of times via subs.

We like the cut of Brandon's jib and based upon nicknames, he has to win this. That and his game is built around besting wrestlers with a Jiu-Jitsu weakness, and we thinks the advantages lay with Moreno.

Upset Pick WINNER-Brandon Moreno by Rd.3 Submission

ryanhall5050 (Twitter)

Prelims on FS1:

Gray Maynard (12-5-1, 1) -115 vs. Ryan Hall (5-1) -105

Gray Maynard ladies and gentlemen, let's give it up for this guy still giving it the old college try. Never have we seen anyone fall from grace as rapidly and violently as Maynard. After losing twice in title fights against Frankie Edgar, Gray crumbled going 2-4 with 3 of the losses being savage deaths. "The Bully" has always been a good wrestler with powerful punches, but he gets concussed when a fly lands on his nose at the age of 37. That's not going to get better.

Hall is a conundrum of interestingness. The guy is fascinating human being but we are here to talk about his combat game. Ryan is a stellar, just bad ass grappler. Since losing in his professional debut, Hall has gone undefeated with only a single opponent making it to the judges. 

Nobody is going to make us believe that Maynard should not have retired 2 years ago. The guy is done and no matter how the UFC schedules him against guys that won't hurt him striking, the guy is going to fall. Remember the Royce Gracie versus Ken Shamrock 3rd meeting when the frail no boxing skills having Royce ruined "Shammy" with knees and punches? Same here. Ryan throws an errant punch that wobbles the punchy Gray and then taps him out with ease.

Upset Pick WINNER-Ryan Hall by Rd.1 Submision

Rob Font (12-2) -250 vs. Matt Schnell (9-2) +210

The Sityodtong Font is a boxer who is making the move down to Flyweight. Boston strong.

ATT's "Danger" has won 6 fights in a row and has fought his way into the UFC for this debut. Schnell is relentless in looking for the submission chaining moves together like a Gracie. 

Matt takes risks to get his sub game on but Rob will be on sprawl patrol and touching him up with strikes. Lots of room for both youths to grow but we find Font to be more developed at more facets of the game.

WINNER-Rob Font by Decision

kailincurran (Instagram)

Kailin Curran (4-3) -150 vs. Jamie Moyle (3-1) +130

The Hawaiian with the voice of an angel, is a bit green in the game but she is improving just a bit out of her depth so far.

Moyle is an okay fighter but she shouldn't have been brought up to the big show yet.

Kailin gets a much needed win in this oddly scheduled bout.

WINNER-Kailin Curran by Decision

Josh Stansbury (8-2) -115 vs. Devin Clark (6-1) -105

Well, a whole lotta nuthin' going on here.

Upset Pick WINNER-Devin Clark by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Elvis Mutapcic (15-4) +100 vs. Anthony Smith (25-12) -120

If you can only manage a draw against the terrible Kevin Casey, then you are not a very good fighter. We're looking at you Elvis.

"Lionheart" is a tough out with a lot of experience Tony goes hard for 2 rounds which should be enough to win on the cards though his ceiling is low.

WINNER-Anthony Smith by Decision

Dong Hyun Kim (13-8-3) -125 vs. Brendan O’Reilly (6-2) +105

The other Dong Hyun Kim has had a rough start to his UFC career getting slammed into unconsciousness and knocked the fuck out by Marco Polo Reyes. The "Maestro" has had some bad luck and isn't as awful as his latest efforts suggest.

"BO" (haha, get it?) is not impressive in the least.

The other "Donger" should be able to best the grinder who has terrible stamina and has little offense.

WINNER-Dong Hyun Kim by Decision

TUF 24 Finale Start Times
Main Card on Fox Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT