Friday, January 13, 2017

UFC Fight Night 103 Penn vs. Rodriguez: Picks, Prognostications + Odds


January 15, 2017
Talking Stick Resort Arena
Phoenix, Arizona

Main Card on FS1:


BJ Penn (16-10-2) +350 vs. Yair Rodriguez (8-1) -440

No, no, no! How many times do we have to go through this?
"BJ is back!" "This is the real Prodigy." "Now Penn is
motivated." MMAFO is tired of this damn song. BJ is
overrated (yeah, we said it) and he's never going to attain his 
previous levels of success. Not gonna happen. "Pantera" by 
massacre.

WINNER-Yair Rodriguez by Rd.4 TKO

Joe Lauzon (26-12) -120 vs. Marcin Held (22-5) +100

The Polish fighter has shown moments of brilliance and then he 
goes out and completely forgets how to fight against Diego 
Sanchez last last November. It was a pedestrian effort maligned 
by Held's inability to switch gears mid-fight. The lack of a gas tank was because he took the bout on short notice coupled with the high elevation in Mexico so Marcin gets a pass there.

"J-Lau" is far more consistent. You know what you are going 
to get from the 8 year veteran. Lauzon is going to come at you
with all he's got even if it means putting himself in precarious 
situations.

And so, Joey is going to bring the fight to Marcin forcing him to 
engage. Both men are adapt at subs but after Held's lackluster 
showing in his debut for the UFC, its hard to pick the kid. 
Maybe it was "UFC jitters" but he hasn't established any good
will with us. We'll ride with the man we know is fighting for a 
bonus and always lays all his cards on the table.

WINNER-Joe Lauzon by Decision

@bensaundersmma (Instagram)
Ben Saunders (19-7-2) -110 vs. Court McGee (19-5) -110

"Killa-B" is back in the house! Again. It was kinda strange 
when Saunders was bounced from the organization after a 
single loss to then surging Patrick Cote last January. Ben went 
out and armbar'd idiot Jacob Volkman in a mere 0:17 and
"Killa-B" is back. Again. If you don't know MMAFO are huge 
"Killa-B" fans then you haven't been paying attention. Ben is a 
submission ace and is very long allowing for some vicious work 
in the clinch. Saunders has been splitting his training with ATT 
and 10th Planet and Jiu-Jitsu master Eddie Bravo.

"The Crusher" has been trudging along winning some and 
others. The guy doesn't really improve as much as he just 
soldiers on with grit, determination, and cardio for days.

Saunders allows himself to be taken down far too often (likely 
because his Jitz is so good off his back) but McGee isn't one for 
takedowns. Court is slow but steady and he could slowly wear 
down Ben over the course of the bout, but more likely is that 
"Killa-B" keeps some distance before using trip takedowns 
to control the bearded one if'n he doesn't straight tap him out. Saunders is the better striker and better grappler. Ben simply needs to be aware of the time he spends on his back since the judges do not reward men who work from their back. 

WINNER-Ben Saunders by Decision

John Moraga (16-5) +125 vs. Sergio Pettis (14-2) -145

The "other" Pettis has been up and down amassing a 5-2 
record while trying to establish himself at Flyweight. The
Roufusport fighter is a solid technical kickboxer with good 
takedown defense. Sergio has shown a bit of a weak chin in the
past but he is young and improving.

John is an okay striker but he really excels when he is able to 
get into a scramble and attain a submission before his opponent
knows what is happening. The MMA Lab combatant is far
more experienced having fought the best of the division though 
admittedly with mixed results.

Moraga isn't one to test any one's chin which leaves Pettis free 
to box up John unless he is taken down. On the mat, Sergio is far, far behind John and must avoid the canvas like it was lava. Pettis can stick and move amassing more points to win at least 2 rounds in a close bout.

WINNER-Sergio Pettis by Decision

Prelims on FS1:

Frankie Saenz (11-4) -160 vs. Augusto Mendes (5-1) +140

What can you say here? Frankie is a 36 year old boxer while 
Augusto is the younger submission grappler. Neither seems 
likely to be a player at Bantamweight or very interesting. Saenz is a powerful striker and capable grappler which means he's got all the tools to defeat Augusto.

WINNER-Frankie Saenz by Rd.1 TKO


Oleksiy Oliynyk (50-10-1) -140 vs. Viktor Pesta (10-3) +120

"The Boa Constrictor" had won 11 in a row (all by finish!) until 
lost a close decision to Daniel Omielanczuk last July. Oli is as 
tough as they come (and he'd better be having fought 61 times 
by the age of 39) and is a submission expert. He'll do anything 
he can to get the fight to the floor including enduring a beating 
to do so.

Pesta has gone 1-3 since joining the UFC and has looked like
absolute garbage. He'll be submitted before he knows what 
time it is.

WINNER-Oleksiy Oliynyk by Rd.1 Submission

Tony Martin (10-3) -225 vs. Alex White (11-2) +185

White by aggression over the guy who cannot seem to develop
any endurance.

Upset Pick WINNER-Alex White by Decision

Devin Powell (8-1) +210 vs. Drakkar Klose (6-0-1) -250

WINNER-Drakkar Klose by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-3) +125 vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-5) -145

Amanda Nunes' girlfriend has been disappointing to say the 
least since coming up from Invicta FC. Is the "rub" real?

JJL hasn't done well either but she has faced tougher 
competition and we just like the cut of her gib. The lady is 
tough and a fighter in every aspect.
Look, we're not gonna lie here. We respect JJL a lot but she's prolly gonna lose. Sad but so.

WINNER-Nina Ansaroff by Decision

Walt Harris (8-5) -140 vs. Chase Sherman (9-2) +120

2-4 for the "Big Ticket." 0-1 for the "Vanilla Gorilla." Both 
men are going to stand and trade bombs which bodes well for 
Walt.

WINNER-Walt Harris by Rd.1 KO

Bojan Mihajlović (10-4) +200 vs. Joachim Christensen (13-4)
-240

WINNER-Joachim Christensen by Decision

Dmitri Smoliakov (8-1) +100 vs. Cyril Asker (7-2) -120

Upset Pick WINNER-Dmitri Smoliakov by Rd.1 TKO

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