Monday, February 27, 2017

UFC 209 Woodley vs. Thompson 2: Picks, Prognostications + Odds (Updated & Updated Again)


March 4, 2017
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, NV

Main Card (on PPV):

Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley (16-3-1) +150 vs. #3 Stephen Thompson (13-1-1) -170 [Rematch]

Business needs to be settled! In November of last year, these two combatants battled for 25 minutes to a Majority Draw eliciting more questions than answers. Now the men are rebooked as the oft maligned champ comes in amidst controversial statements, and an all around cuntiness about his poor station in life (as a UFC Champion, sports star, and well paid athlete). "Wonderboy" has all the support a generic white-bred christian can muster. Don't get MMAFO wrong, we love this match but neither guy is our type of cat. Still, both men are elite warriors and this should be a fascinating return bout.

"The Chosen One" (why do people feel like this guy is an arrogant prick who believes he is owed the world? Hmm, Mr. Chosen by God.) has won 3 in a row since losing to Rory MacDonald in '14. Despite all of his annoying cries for love and special treatment, Woodley is a talented firm wrestler who has real power in his hands and a knack for making foes fight at his style and pace. Tyrone (misspelled on purpose) was very successful in their 1st meeting mixing in the takedown and damaging Stephen on the ground for which Thompson had little answers. 

"Wonderboy's" karate style attack showed moments of effectiveness against Ty but he couldn't maintain the volume and variety that earned him success because of a righteous fear of the takedown. Thompson must maintain distance and keep giving his opponent new looks and kicks in rapid succession.

What we learned in the 1st meeting is that Woodley's wrestling was dominant even though he went away from the skill as the bout progressed. Tyrone's chin held up fine during the contest while Stephen was battered and nearly put away. Its all about the adjustments one makes between camps but we had our eyes opened about Woodley's ability to smother and frustrate Thompson into paralysis. Confidence will be key early but with Tyrone looking to establish his wrestling game more so this time, he should have the advantage and win another narrow points victory.

Upset Pick WINNER-Tyron Woodley by Decision

Interim Featherweight Title Bout
#3 Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0) -170 vs. #2 Tony Ferguson (23-3) +150 Cancelled!

* Khabib was taken to the hospital hours before the official weigh-ins were to begin and ultimately, the bout has been cancelled with little information, and a ton of disappointment. This is now the 3rd time a proposed meeting between these men has fallen through. Cursed this match is. 

Rashad Evans (19-5-1) -240 vs. Daniel Kelly (12-1) +200

With a combined age of 410, these two crumbling veterans meet in a clash that is sure to put any sleepy viewer to bed. Jesus, Evans struggles to even get cleared to fight these days and Kelly's body is shot from Olympic Judo competitions. "Suga" just cannot, and we mean cannot, pull the damn trigger. The guy just stares at his opponent lacking confidence no matter what he tries to sell you. Kelly is slow and plodding, but he slowly making a climb uphill and wears adversary's down before they know it.

If, if Rashad has anything left to give, he must do it now in a bout he should win. If Evans can't win this it is definitely time to retire. We'll allow "Suga" one last chance and see him winning the most tepid of decisions, but he'll do it by gaining confidence as the bout progresses against a slower, less talented, and rarely delivered offense of Kelly. We expect a terrible bout.

WINNER-Rashad Evans by Decision

Landon Vannata (9-1) -400 vs. David Teymur (5-1) +325

"Lando" has become a MMA darling with his exciting insane antics and eye pleasing style. Vannata has more than enough game to best fellow striker Teymur who is good, but basic. "Groovy" gives us the exciting attack we crave getting a finish in highlight fashion.

WINNER-Landon Vannata by Rd.3 Submission

#4 Alistair Overeem (41-15-1) -145 vs. Mark Hunt (12-10-1, 1) +125 [Rematch]

And so, "Hunto" gets enraged when he fights Brock Lesnar at UFC 200 and then learns post fight that the "Beast Incarnate" was fighting dirty on PED's, holds out of competition while threatening to sue the UFC, and then he is forced to return against a notorious cheater. We thinks Mark may be on the warpath for this one. MMAFO has never seen Hunt as angry as when he learned that Lesnar had fought with illegal enhancements in his mega-frame! Unable to get out of his UFC contract, the "Super Samoan" signs to face a fellow striker who defeated him via submission at DREAM 5 way back in '08.

Poor "Hunto," we feel for him and he is correct in all his complaints against the UFC, but a Samoan's gotta eat. Its hard to know if Mark is coming in just to knock another bout off of his contract, or looking to prove a point by taking Alistair seriously and trying to murder him. 

"Ubereem" was knocked-the-fuck-out against Stipe Miocic last out, and it could have done irreparable damage. It was nasty! Even so, Overeem has been (T)KO'd 10 times in his career now but you've got to get to his glass chin to break it. "The Demolition Man" knows how to maintain distance and will not shy away from straight running away from danger. Alistair has crazy power in his knees if they do get in close, and like every Heavyweight, knockout power.

MMAFO wants, wishes, hopes, "Hunto" wins this by devastating decapitation, but its doubtful. Overeem is too good at avoiding offense and picking his shots. If he doesn't put Mark away, he'll frustrate the fuck out of him while ignoring the boo's and biking to a victory.

WINNER-Alistair Overeem by Decision

Prelims (on FS1):

Mark Godbeer (11-3) -150 vs. Daniel Spitz (5-0) +130

"The Hand of" Godbeer is a good striker from across the pond, but his Achilles heel is the ground work. Mark isn't the most durable but who is at the biggest boy level.

Spitz fights out of the awful Sikjitsu camp but he's destroyed everyone so far save for Wesley "Cabbage" Correira who took him to a decision ("Cabbage" is still alive and fighting people! Can you believe that?!).  Danny is a massive 6'7" grappler but slow as hell when he punches.

We just can't come to an agreement on this coin-flip fight. The coin has decided...

WINNER-Mark Godbeer by Rd.2 TKO

Marcin Tybura (14-2) -160 vs. Luis Henrique de Oliveira (10-2, 1) +140

If we're looking for new talent for the big heavy division, we should look elsewhere. Tybura has found an aggressive streak which is good for him and at 23, Luis has a long way to go before his game is notable in the UFC. Marcin should be able to  avoid the ground game of "KLB" and piece him up for a tepid win.

WINNER-Marcin Tybura by Decision

Darren Elkins (21-5) +550 vs. Mirsad Bektic (11-0) -800

Elkins is a tough as nails grinder but he is matched up here against an undefeated bad ass prospect that everyone has their eyes on. Bektic can do the wrestling game as well, perhaps even better, and out strike Darren. The inability of Elkins to have an offensive move to finish anyone renders him outgunned here as Mirsad is forced to work for it, but dominates on the boards.

WINNER-Mirsad Bektic by Decision

Luke Sanders (11-0) -115 vs. Iuri Alcântara (34-7-1) -105

"Cool Hand" Luke was very impressive in his UFC debut running over Maximo Blanco with ease. The MMA Lab fighter is more of a bully than a technical fighter but we have yet to see much from him. 

Iuri is a striking veteran who will contend unless he meets the top tier of competition. Your standard "gatekeeper." The Brazilian has a tricky kickboxing style and can be much craftier than the rudimentary Sanders. Take the old timer as the safe pick.

Upset Pick WINNER-Iuri Alcantara by Decision

Prelims (on UFC Fight Pass):

Tyson Pedro (5-0) -130 vs. Paul Craig (9-0) +110

The "o" must go! Two undefeateds meet at the shallow Light Heavy division trying to establish themselves as prospects to watch.

The "Bearjew" is a Scottish submission fighter who has no trouble pulling guard and scrapping on the canvas. This, is his game.

Pedro is a big sturdy fella who has just been running game allowing no foe to exit the 1st round against him. The Aussie still needs work standing but he needs to build his game slowly and relying on his wrestling is key until he has matured.

Both of these guys excel on the ground so this should turn into a boxing match. If that is the case, Pedro will have the advantage and getting to a top position, could finish this. 

WINNER-Tyson Pedro by Decision

https://www.instagram.com/abcnation115/?hl=en
Amanda Cooper (2-2) +100 vs. Cynthia Calvillo (3-0) -120

CC has been training with Team Alpha Male and though very new to the game, she's a quick study and has taken to the combat arts. Calvillo needs more work on the striking but her grappling will be her advantage.

"ABC" is also young and green but she doesn't possess the natural abilities of her opponent. Cooper also tends to get in trouble on the mats which will be her undoing here. Her boxing is her saving grace. 

WINNER-Cynthia Calvillo by Decision

Albert Morales (6-1-1) -130 vs. Andre Soukhamthath (11-3) +110

"The Warrior" is coming in off a draw and a loss to Thomas Almeida. No shame there as Morales even rocked Almeida a bit in their meeting and this kid throws crazy early and often.

"The Asian Sensation" is making his promotional debut riding a 3-fight winning streak and is also a striker. Soukhamthath (pronounced-sookimta) starts slow but finishes strong.

Should be a nice fun kickoff to the show with both boys throwing leather. Albert should have the advantages early but he'll need to finish Andre before he goes into deep waters where the tide will turn for Soukhamthath.

Upset Pick WINNER-Andre Soukhamthath by Decision

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