UFC Fight Night 105: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

February 19, 2017

Scotiabank Centre

Halifax, Nova Scotia

Main Card on FS1:

Derrick Lewis (17-4) -115 vs. Travis Browne (18-5-1) -105

This Heavyweight tilt has turned into a grudge match as Lewis stated, "I believe he did put his hands on his ex-girlfriend," referencing the "incident" back in '15 in which the UFC looked into domestic abuse allegations involving Browne. Travis took exception with the words and fired back saying, "The great thing about this sport is you're going to be held accountable for your words come fight night." The table is set for a fun one.

"The Black Beast" has been on a roll winning 5 in a row, which has kept him active and given the brute some needed experience. Lewis even went to the 4th round in his last outing testing that big man cardio. This bout is bound to play out standing and Derrick has supernova power in his hands. He's not the most technical or fast, but he's got the brawn to make up for it. Lewis generally just stands up when taken down inviting strikes in order to get back to his feet. 

"Hapa" has been in free fall losing 3 of his last 4 (the only win coming in horribly controversial fashion when he brutally eye poked Matt Mitrione causing massive swelling) and looking worse each time out. Reports have surfaced that Browne has changed from the unsuccessful and despised Glendale Fighting Club and punchline Coach Edmond Tarverdyan but these reports are not true. Travis has been splitting time in various camps but he is still stubbornly with GFC. That is not a good sign and Browne seems to get rocked every single time he is in the Octagon.

Surprisingly, it may be Lewis who goes for a takedown in this battle as he is literally and figuratively very heavy from top position. If they're just banging it out, the power easily goes to Derrick but he will be much slower than Travis. "Hapa" can use his long kicks to keep "The Black Beast" at bay but we feel like Browne already has a suspect chin, and if Lewis gets hands on him, he'll break his skull. We see things going well for Travis early but at some point it will all come crashing down as a connection disconnects Browne from consciousness.

WINNER-Derrick Lewis by Rd.2 KO

Johnny Hendricks (17-6) +110 vs. Hector Lombard (34-6-1) -130

Jesus who made this match and wanted to see Hendricks die? The height will be the same but Hector will be much larger even though both have spent time at Welterweight. Here at Middleweight, "Pigg Rigg" will surely make weight but his physique has looked soft and his failures are well known. The USADA era has been affixed to Johny's mistakes but the guy has fallen so far and so fast, it seems almost impossible to pick him. The wrestling game is always there but his power seems gone and he seems to be a mess mentally as well. Couple all that with a quick turnaround from his last loss a month and a half ago, and we don't see good things in his future. Unless a paycheck from Bellator is a "good thing" which it could be. Hector lands some brutality and wins on points.

WINNER-Hector Lombard by Decision

Sam Sicilia (15-7) +145 vs. Gavin Tucker (9-0) -165

Besides all of the cancelled bouts, why is this bout on the Main Card of all places? Little is known about the "Guv'nor" (though respect for the nickname) but he's a solid striker and Sicilia has a questionable chin and questionable ability. We'll take a flier on the new guy because why not?

WINNER-Gavin Tucker by Rd.2 TKO

Elias Theodorou (12-1) +105 vs. Cezar Ferreira (12-5) -125

This matchmaking is hilarious. Two fuck ups pitted against each other and we wait to see who makes the mistake 1st. Theodorou is a wrestler through and through but everything else is a work in progress. Ferreira has improved keeping his glass chin out of danger but he's no jack of all trades either. Elias has more durable and that small fact alone is why he earns our pick. We would not be surprised either way but neither guy deserves much attention.

Upset Pick WINNER-Elias Theodorou by Decision

Sara McMann (10-3) -600 vs. Gina Mazany (4-0) +450

"Danger" is making her promotional debut on short notice after Liz Carmouche dropped out of this outing. Gina is a bit of a mystery as she has fought sporadically '08, '09, '13, and '16 for her short resume. Mazany is an Xtreme Couture fighter who is best at grappling and good luck with that against an Olympic wrestler.

McMann has turned things around a bit winning her last 2 (4-3 UFC record) against stout competition but she seems unwillingly to pull the trigger and relies heavily upon her wrestling. Even so, that will be enough here as she sets the cruise control until the final horn.

WINNER-Sara McMann by Decision

Paul Felder (12-3) -400 vs. Alessandro Ricci (10-4) +325

Felder is an absolute conundrum. The guy is a major talent but just wants to have fun in there and that reflects in his record. Paul would rather brawl than do what is necessary to get wins. "Cowboy" Cerrone's best bud should win this bout in hand but you just never know with Paul. We'll ride with "The Irish Dragon" one last time but if he burns us again he will be banished!

WINNER-Paul Felder by Decision

Prelims on FS1:

Nordine Taleb (11-3) +325 vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (24-3) -400

       Taleb is a nice story as he ko'd the cheap-shot artist Erick Silva last out but his posture leaves his long body open for attacks and he isn't the most stellar of strikers.

       "Gente Boa" is a very impressive fighter coming into his own. Ponzy should be the better striker and all around fighter with more power and decisive attacks. Santiago is a finisher but Taleb's toughness should carry him the final bell.

WINNER-Santiago Ponzinibbio by Decision

Carla Esparza (11-3) -280 vs. Randa Markos (6-4) +240

        These two ladies loathed each other back on TUF 20 and hopefully that rivalry will carry over to today.

The "Cookie Monster" is talented though she seems terrified in the cage and has had trouble getting her groove back after Joanna Jedrzejczyk took her belt and her soul. Esparza has fought but a single time since then in a tepid performance in April of last year. Injuries and rust may have contributed but the fire was definitely absent last out.

"The Quiet Storm" has struggled to get a winning streak going but she is talented. Randa is an offensive grappler but she's going to be out gunned as she cannot stop the oncoming takedowns and plays off her back in a losing effort. Here's hoping we're wrong on this one as Markos is lovely and Esparza is really a C-U-Next Tuesday kind of lady.

WINNER-Carla Esparza by Decision

The Zahabi Brothers Training W/Ryan Hall!

Aiemann Zahabi (6-0) -230 vs. Reginaldo Vieira (14-4) +190

The brother of the well respected Tristar Coach Firas Zahabi. That is good company for sure and Aiemann is a wicked grappler with some chops standing as well. Vieira isn't an easy out by any means and will be the biggest test for Aiemann to date. Zahabi should pass and do so with a slick submission.

WINNER-Aiemann Zahabi by Rd.2 Submission

Jack Marshman (21-5) +160 vs. Thiago Santos (13-5) -185

MMAFO is a bit torn here. Santos seemed to be finding his way at 185's and then Gegard Mousasi destroyed him before Eric Spicely tapped him last out, both in the opening round. We enjoy "Marreta" who is a gifted boxer but his losses have all been perplexing mistakes or from a lack of effort.

"The Gwent Hammer" has won 7 in a row including a nice finish of Magnus Cedenblad that caught us off guard. Marshman is a finisher and as you may have guessed with the nickname, has a nice power set.

We have to side with the cat that is rolling hard right now and with Santos' questionable fight I.Q. we can't pick the guy. Jack makes an ass of Thiago and finishes things early.

Upset Pick WINNER-Jack Marshman by Rd.1 TKO

Gerald Meerschaert (25-8) -320 vs. Ryan Janes (9-1) +260

"The Machine" has won 6 in a row, all finishes, and all in the very 1st round save one. Homie has 18 subs on his resume though his foe is a good grappler. It's Gerald's fight though and he should dominate on the feet and avoid any real trouble on the canvas.

WINNER-Gerald Meerschaert by Decision

Cancelled Bouts:

Junior dos Santos (18-4) vs. Stefan Struve (32-8) 

Alex Volkanovski (14-1) vs. Michel Quinones (8-1)