Monday, February 19, 2018

UFC on Fox 28 Stephens vs. Emmett: Fight Card, Half Assed Musings + Odds


UFC on FOX 4,097
February 24, 2018
Amway Center
Orlando, Florida


We are two months into the new year and we're already feeling "weak ass card fatigue." The UFC is just begging their fans to turn away and find a new product that will cater to their needs instead of insulting their intelligence. Let's pick our nose.

Main Card on FOX (7pm/CT):

#5 Josh Emmett (13-1) +125 vs. Jeremy Stephens (26-14) -135

Josh made his name last December knocking Ricardo Lamas out fucking cold in a one round shocker! It has to be said though, Emmett did miss weight and that kinda ruins it but still. Now, the Team Alpha Male fighter is looking to build off of that by showing he can defeat big name opponents as well as be a professional.

There is nothing surprising coming at you from veteran "Lil Heathen." Jeremy is going to come out with an attitude and bomb on common sense while becoming enraged if you don't stand and trade in front of him. 

Prove it. Just like when you played horse with your basketball buddies, on the last shot, prove it. We're still not sure that Josh is elite. He's good, but is he elite? Jeremy will answer those questions for us and MMAFO doesn't think Emmett is going to have the inventiveness to show him something knew or make him pay. Bring the heaters! 

WINNER-Jeremy Stephens by Rd.3 TKO

#3 Jessica Andrade (17-6)  -255 vs. #6 Tecia Torres (10-1) +235

On paper, this is easily the best fight on the card! Both of these ladies are looking at the title and both are quite near.

In '16, Jessica made the move to Strawweight and she has looked near unbeatable since. "Bate Estaca" has power for days in her striking but she can also throw without ever getting tired. The Brazilian bulldog does not relent forcing her opponents into mistakes and exhaustion.

From the very beginning of her career, MMAFO has claimed, and still stands by our statement, that Tecia Torres will be a champ one day. Just not yet. The "Tiny Tornado" is a whirlwind of action but she doesn't have power to keep rivals honest, and sometimes is out there flowing from discipline to move without committing enough to them for any real impact. Tecia can play top game as well, controlling when necessary.

Again, not yet for Torres. Tecia needs to develop some power and be able to spend at least a few seconds in the pocket. Jess is going to rough up her opponent but it should be a damn fun 15.

WINNER-Jessica Andrade by Decision

#8 Ovince Saint Preux (22-10) -150 vs. #10 Ilir Latifi (13-5, 1) +140

Is OSP trying to fuck around and become a legitimate contender? The Volunteer has rattled off 3 straight to discount the 3 fight losing streak he had prior. Ovince has power in his hands, can sneak in a Von Preux choke, and finally joined up with a "big" MMA camp in Alliance (though they would've been our last choice). 

"Lil" Latifi is a sledgehammering Danny Devito with the power of Odin. He'll crush you early, or lose on points.

WINNER-Ovince Saint Preux by Rd.3 TKO

Mike Perry (11-2) -355 vs. Max Griffin (13-4) +320

Oh "Platinum," how the MMA world has embraced your dumb/simple outlook on life. There is a certain charm to Mike as he is 100% honest, and an absolute moron. However, we are fighting here kids and Perry has thunder in his hands so the litany of dumb shit coming out of his mouth only matters to a certain point.

Maxine has a significant reach advantage but he's going to sleep as Perry pretends that it was Griffin dancin' all up on his girl at the club.

WINNER-Mike Perry by Rd.1 TKO

Prelims on FOX (5pm/CT):

Renan Pegado (34-5, 1) -140 vs. Brian Kelleher (18-8) +130

Do fans even remember "Barao" is a former champ? Pegado has become inactive and has but 2 wins since losing his gold. Perhaps the brutal weight cuts, perhaps the knockout losses, perhaps a loss of confidence, but Renan just does not look close to his prime form and is making the weight-cut-from-hell return to 135s.

"Boom" is well rounded and does not have the wear on his body of his foe. Brian has a nice right hook but it's his patented guillotine choke for which he has become known. 

MMAFO isn't ready to throw the dirt on "Barao" quite yet. Despite the bloated record, Renan is only 31 and has only been finished by TJ Dillashaw (twice) and it took the cat over 15 minutes each time to do so. Kelleher will also help Pegado by refusing to employ defense and he's susceptible to the flying, spinning, crazy coming atcha shit "The Baron" likes to bring. 

WINNER-Renan Pegado by Decision

#5 Sara McMann (11-4) -175 vs. #7 Marion Reneau (8-3-1) +165

When McMann came to the UFC, MMAFO was telling anyone who would listen that she would be the one to knock off Ronda Rousey. So ya know, we're not infallible. Sara is a rock solid bruiser of an Olympic grappler, but she just hasn't been able to put together a consistent game, and she still falls into obvious rookie mistakes. McMann has moved to Team Alpha Male and perhaps they can right her wrongs of consistently being in the wrong positions like last out against Ketlen Vieira in a fight in which she was owning before she fell into the fight losing arm-triangle choke. 

Reneau is a nice story at 40 and all, but she isn't athletic enough, doesn't have the volume striking, and is going to be fading very quickly soon.

Sara should have this but that is the case with all her past losses. Who knows?

WINNER-Sara McMann by Decision


 https://www.instagram.com/angieoverkill/?hl=en
Angela Hill (7-4) -110 vs. Maryna Moroz (8-2) +100

Alliance has made Hill worse taking away her power and having her employ a footwork based touch and go style that has not translated into success for her. Angela's loss to Nina Ansaroff last November was horrific. There was no reason for that bout to be close let alone a loss. Hill has to get back to her power brawling ways and especially here. Moroz is only going to put out the occasional jab and that should allow "Overkill" to do work if the Alliance camp has not completely ruined her. 

Maryna doesn't set up anything and landed a mere 17 of 251 strikes (6.7%), the lowest ever in a UFC bout in which at least 100 strikes were thrown. Moroz is the better grappler on paper but she's not going to be holding Hill down.

This is Angela's last chance with us. She had so much potential and yet her game has seemingly gotten worse. Hill has been adding muscle and claims to be returning to her boxing so we shall see.

WINNER-Angela Hill by Decision

https://www.instagram.com/bensaundersmma/
Ben Saunders (21-8-2) +220 vs. Alan Jouban (15-6) -240

Now this, this, is a fight MMAFO can get behind! Two of "our boys" that have trained together at 10th Planet under Eddie Bravo are looking for "Fight of the Night" honors. Forget picking the fight, MMAFO will be trying to hide the erections for 15 minutes.

"Brahma" has lost a couple in a row but goddamned if he doesn't go out there and scrap like a bastard.

"Killa-B" has been our boy for 11 years does a really good job commentating EBI's as well.

This is going to be fun violence but "Killa-B" is a bit outgunned here. Jouban is more likely to wade into the deep end with no shortage of strikes while Saunders will need some ground time to ply his trade. 

It doesn't matter what happens because we are all winners for being able to witness these two warriors ply their trade.

WINNER-Alan Jouban by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass (3pm/CT):

Sam Alvey (31-10, 1) +177 vs. Marcin Prachnio (13-2) -192

We have seen the peak of Sam and he's on his way out. Sam has a big punch, but is one of the more glacial competitors in the game today, and he suffers from the Rashad Evan's disease of complete inability to pull the damn trigger.

The Pole is making his promotional debut on an 8-fight bounce and is going to wreck Alvey's shop. Marcin is an actual 205er while his opponent is making his debut at the weight class. Prachnio is going to throw with the ginger, but he'll do it by throwing more than 2 punches per round.

WINNER-Marcin Prachnio by Decision

Russell Doane (15-7) +190 vs. Rani Yahya (24-9, 1) -210

The heir to the back pill fortune pulled off a small miracle, remaining employed after 4 losses and used the chance to earn a victory last June. 

"Race Car Yahya" can gas out simply walking toward the cage, but he is a brilliant Jiu-Jitsu player for 10 minutes and not a second longer. Rani wins this because he moves so slowly that Russ doesn't realize the bout is happening and gets subbed.

WINNER-Rani Yahya by Decision

Alex Perez (19-4) +120 vs. Eric Shelton (11-4) -140

The Flyweight's nobody seems to give a fuck about, are not setting the division ablaze. Somebody has got to come out and make a statement, verbally and physically, before this becomes the "Bathroom Break Division." MMAFO who normally enjoys the 125s remains slightly awake for this contest, but only just. Make us care!! These two cats aren't bad, but our needle barely flutters.

Upset Pick WINNER-Alex Perez by Decision

Manny Bermudez (10-0) -175 vs. Albert Morales (7-3-1) +155

Hmm, what does the UFC want to happen here? Morales (1-3-1) is nearing the exit doors, while Bermudez is coming in undefeated at the tender age of 23. That's not to say Al can't compete in this, but the matchmakers are obviously looking for the new blood to wash away the old.

WINNER-Manny Bermudez by Decision

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