Thursday, July 12, 2018

UFC Fight Night 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov: Fight Card, Predictions + Odds


July 14, 2018
Century Link Arena
Boise, Idaho

Fight Card:

Junior Dos Santos (18-5) -170 vs. Blagoy Ivanov (16-1-1) +160

JDS is returning from a PED suspension from USADA in which he was found innocent due to tainted supplement. We last saw the lovable Brazilian get run over by then champ Stipe Miocic in a single round which was not a good look. "Cigano" always bases his game around his boxing skills but the man has also taken an unholy amount of damage in his career in some of the nastiest and bloodiest fights ever, and durability is a big question mark.


The "Sultan of Sambo" made his name outside of MMA when he defeated Fedor Emelianenko in the semi-finals of the 2008 World Sambo Championships. Ivanov has competed in Sengoku, Bellator, and became WSOF Heavyweight Champion before that promotion rebranded and Blagoy took the opportunity to go to the big dance. This is a man who was stabbed in the fucking heart in 2012 which led to him being placed in a medically induced coma for 7 days! So ya know, tough fucking Russian. Since his near death experience, "Bagata" has gone 9-1 and despite all the accolades we have heaped upon him, he's not amazing. 


Sadly, there just isn't much time left for JDS and the damage accrued over his career, he's almost done. We've seen obvious declines in his game and Blagoy is durable if nothing else. Somehow, someway, JDS gets hurt, or swollen, or bloody, or all of the above, and he falls. 

Upset Pick WINNER-Blagoy Ivanov by Rd.3 TKO


Dennis Bermudez (16-8) -215 vs. Rick Glenn (20-5-1) +195

Bermudez has lost 3 in a row and his time is past not that he was ever going to contend at Featherweight. MMAFO has always found "The Menace" to be overrated with his predictable striking without power.

Glenn is tough as hell but not that gifted or athletic. He just tends to big brother foes with tenacity.

Eh, could go either way. Glen is a breaker and Bermudez can break. Dennis is easily the better striker and should be able to win a couple rounds on points.

WINNER-Dennis Bermudez by Decision


Sage Northcutt (10-2) -135 vs. Zak Ottow (16-5) +125

"Super" Sage and his super smile are back for a super fun scrap. Northcutt has been honing his skills at Team Alpha Male recently and we shall see if he can learn some ground skills to go along with his flashy striking. The kid's young (22) but talented despite the hate coming his way and that stupid haircut. 

Northcutt is far more athletic and his strikes are damn powerful. Sage is going to land and Ottow doesn't have the best in cage I.Q.

WINNER-Sage Northcutt by Rd.2 TKO


Niko Price (11-1) +110 vs. Randy Brown (10-2) -120

"The Hybrid" is massive for 170s and has looked quite strong save for a submission mistake against Vicente Luque. Price is a powerful hitter.

The Jamaican "Rude Boy" got a fire lit under him by Micky Gall last November, and beat the piss out of him for it. Brown is a Budokan kickboxer.

We're not sold on Brown quite yet though he is improving. At this point in their careers, we like Niko to hurt Randy especially if he gains top position and win the nod.

Upset Pick WINNER-Niko Price by Decision


Myles Jury (17-2) +130 vs. Chad Mendes (17-4) -140

"Money" Mendes is back after a long 2-year suspension by USADA for a positive GHRP-6 (growth hormone) and claimed it was a "mistake." Uh-huh. Chad has some work to do to get back into MMAFO's good graces as we do not care for the cheaters in the sport. At anywho, the Team Alpha Male fighter has fought the best of the best at 145s but has just never quite made the leap up to champ despite 3 chances at the gold. Mendes is a stalwart wrestler and has power in his hands if he can land them. 


What can you say about "Fury" Jury? He's a douche, but a well rounded fighter who is coming into his prime. He seems to never be able to step up his game to an elite level, and has folded against top competition. Myles is going to have the striking advantage but he's going to be defending a lot of takedown attempts and needs to stay off his back. 

We don't see Chad taking a whole lot of chances after the long layoff. Mendes is going to rely on the wrestling game and execute a "safe" game plan to win on the cards.

WINNER-Chad Mendes by Decision


Cat Zingano (9-3) +100 vs. Marion Reneau (9-3-1) -120

If you haven't followed the saga of the "Alpha" Cat, you have missed a heartbreaking story of a woman struggling with to cope her husbands suicide, which has forced her to raise a son alone, post-concussion syndrome (TBI), high profile losses, and a current 3-fight losing streak. Times have been hard. And yet, Zingano has soldiered on seeking out new technological advances in brain therapy and experimenting with multiple top gyms to improve her game. 


Cat was last seen in March in a close loss to Ketlen Vieira after a two year absence, so a little rust is forgivable. The question, is whether Zingano can implement her grappling, powerful striking, and not make massive mistakes in cage as in the past. 


Reneau is also an inspiration for women still being an elite fighter at 41, as well as a school teacher. "The Bruiser" has been on a roll as of late winning 3 in a row with a 5-2-1 record overall in the promotion. Marion is a smart well rounded fighter.


The brain injury is a very scary aspect of this coupling, and despite the lack of forethought in her game, we have this giant soft spot for her and want her to succeed. This is a completely biased pick and Reneau is likely to win, but we're sending the good vibes to do our part. Both women here are winners.

Upset Pick WINNER-Cat Zingano by Decision?


Eddie Wineland (23-12-1) +160 vs. Alejandro Perez (20-6-1) -170

Ed is 34 years old but the former WEC Bantamweight Champion is 85 in fight years. Wineland has seen and done it all with great boxing skills, but the durability has faded away and he's now 5-6 in the UFC. 

"Turbo" has found his groove winning his last 5 (+1 Draw) and is also a striker at heart.

After 36 professional fights, the end is nearing for Wineland. This is one of those bouts where a guy is clearly on his way down (Wineland), and the other is clearly on the way up (Perez). Alejandro is going to muss Eddie up and possibly finish him.

WINNER-Alejandro Perez by Rd.2 TKO




Darren Elkins (24-5) +255 vs. Alexander Volkanovski (17-1) -280

The best chest tattoo in the business has been fighting out of his fucking mind as of late, winning an improbable 6 in a row taking out some real talent. "The Damage" takes an inhuman beating but always stays within reach by grinding away and never saying die despite a lack of athleticism or good striking technique.

Alexander "The Great" has won a mere 14 in a row and is 4-0 for the UFC. The Aussie is a brutal striker who is coming into his prime.

Look, Elkins has been on an unbelievable roll, and he's tough as a $2 steak, but the downfall is coming. Darren is quite slow and robotic in the cage and he's going to get touched up, bloody and swollen, like he always does. At some point, he's not going to be able to take "The Damage," and we think that time is now. Alex should be able to get back to his feet after a few takedowns and piece up Darren in brutal fashion.

WINNER-Alexander Volkanovski by Rd.3 TKO

Justin Scoggins (11-4) +120 vs. Said Nurmagomedov (11-1) -130

Well, look who it is. The ultra-cocky Scoggins 4-4 in the promotion and has lost his last 2 after claiming he was god's gift to the Flyweights. A little humility can go a long way. Make no mistake, the "Tank" is a talented fighter but he's struggled to make weight before as the cut is rough on him. Scoggins is a ball of fury early with good grappling and striking, but he tends to make mental errors and gas out as the bout continues. 


The Russian is taking his 1st fight in the UFC after winning his last 4, and has only lost to the very talented Magomed Bibulatov. We've said it before and we'll said it again, Said likes to throw kicks and that spinning shit we all love. He'll take chances and go for broke.


This is a tough one to call. Both guys are arrogant in the cage though Nurmagomedov hasn't paid for it the way Scoggins has. We slightly like Said better with his vast array of attacks and the fact that Justin tends to fade. 


WINNER-Said Nurmagomedov by Decision

Kurt Holobaugh (17-4) -175 vs. Raoni Barcelos (11-1) +165

Kurt had a cup of tea with the UFC losing his lone fight back in '13. The hullabaloo around Holobaugh is that he fought his way back through Titan FC and that bald idiot's Tuesday Night Contender Series


Barcelos is coming over from RFA on a 4-fight bounce around his powerful striking but he's a bit of an unknown for us.


Raoni needs to pressure Kurt early to get his foe on his heels and land that big single punch. However, Holobaugh doesn't have to worry about combinations coming his way and he really has many more tools in the kit. The percentages lean toward Kurt but Raoni has that striker's chance.


WINNER-Kurt Holobaugh by Decision


Liz Carmouche (10-6) -130 vs. Jennifer Maia (15-4-1) +110


MMAFO likes Liz quite a bit as a person, but her game hasn't exactly improved and she pretty much peaked 5 years ago.


Maia has left her Invicta FC Flyweight title behind to join the UFC. Jen is a bit robotic and takes some damage, but she's solid at grinding opponents down. The Chute Boxer is cool under pressure and should be able to win at the very least, two rounds for the win.


Upset Pick WINNER-Jennifer Maia by Decision 


Mark De La Rosa (9-1) +125 vs. Elias Garcia (5-0) -135

Garcia is inexperienced but undefeated as he makes his promotional debut. Elias is a young athlete and looking to execute the exciting Roufusport style.


"The Bumblebee" fights with the Skrap Pack and wants to turn this into a grappling bout. 


We're picking Garcia basically upon reputation and he's a cousin to the Pettis brothers so eh, who knows?


WINNER-Elias Garcia by Decision


Jessica Aguilar (19-6) +125 vs. Jodie Esquibel (6-3) -135

There was a time when "Jag" was considered the best Strawweight in the world when she had the WSOF title. The ATT fighter was running game all over the world until '15. Aguilar joined the UFC and lost her debut and then got sidelined with injuries that kept her out of action for two years. Upon returning in May of last year, Jessica found defeat again. If this wasn't enough setbacks for the Texan, Aguilar was pulled from UFC Utica due to a "potentially contagious medical issue" that may or may not have been a bad case of herpes on the lips. It's a bit embarrassing but finally Jessica is back and ready to employ her wrestling acumen and the clock is ticking for success at 36.


Esquibel graduated from Invicta FC and got the stern task of facing the lovely Karolina Kowalkiewicz in her debut which resulted in a loss but necessary experience. The Jackson-Wink fighter is a well rounded combatant but she's not destined to set the division on fire.


We still lean toward "Jag" as she tends to push the action more and Jodie won't likely be able to hurt her, or have answers for the wrestling.


Upset Pick WINNER-Jessica Aguilar by Decision

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