Monday, December 03, 2018

UFC 231 Holloway vs. Ortega: Fight Card, Predictive Musings, + Odds


Main Card

Featherweight Champion #1 Max Holloway (19-3) -125 vs. #2 Brian Ortega (14-0) +100

So, we're attempting to do the damn thing for a 2nd time even though we still have no information on what caused a dilapidated Max to slur his speech and show "concussion-like symptoms" in July causing the initial meeting to be cancelled. It could be a rough weight cut much like what caused him to be pulled from a proposed fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 223, or something more sinister. There are no answers but Holloway has decided to fight on. One thing is for sure. The cut to 145 lbs. for Max takes a Herculean effort and perhaps he should be looking at making the move to 155.

Currently, Max has won 12 in a row while winning the Interim title, before unifying the belt in a win over Jose Aldo as well as his 1st official title defense in the rematch with "Scarface." The "Blessed" fighter has really developed into a tactically brilliant striker and continues to improve each time out as the 27 year old moves into his prime. This is all if he does not have some lingering health issues that might appear in the midnight hour.

"T-City's" unblemished record does not reflect the adversity that has come his way in his fighting career. Ortega tends to get himself in trouble early in fights only to rebound mid-contest and steal the victory. Then, Brian left no doubt to his contender status murdering superstar Frankie Edgar in a single round! Ortega didn't even have to employ his vaunted Jiu-Jitsu game.

MMAFO would run with Max all day here had we not seen how awful he looked at his last two failed attempts to make it to bouts. It was very scary to witness and for nothing to have been found in the meantime, only gives us more pause. All things being equal, Holloway should fight circles around Ortega and has the takedown defense to never fear the Jitz game. Watch the champ closely this week and make your own call as to whether he is healthy enough to earn your pick as we remain skeptical.

WINNER-Max Holloway by Decision


Vacant Women's Flyweight Title Fight
#1 Valentina Shevchenko (15-3) -350 vs. *Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-2) +290

The MMA Gods have not been kind to the Peruvian. The judges robbed her in her rematch with Amanda Nunes in '17 and when "her weight class" was finally created and she was tapped for a title shot, inaugural winner Nicco Montano could not make the weight cut canceling the bout and rendering the belt "vacant." The "Bullet" is a decorated kickboxer but she has also added a sneaky ground game as Julianna Pena discovered. Valentina should still have a size advantage over her foe and at this point she must be chomping at the bit to get a damn fight!

Joanna "Violence" got back in the win column in July with a spirited effort over Tecia Torres. Jedrzejczyk has only lost in MMA to Rose Namajunas (who just seems to have her number) but otherwise, she hasn't even faced much adversity as she steamrolled the Strawweight division. Now, the Pole who notoriously looks gaunt at best during her weight cuts, can be more comfortable moving up 10 lbs. which may result in more power and stamina. A lot of people get annoyed by Joanna's "arrogance" but she is a fighter that needs that confidence to fight to her true potential. 

Much has been made of Valentina's two victories over Joanna back in their Muay Thai days, but this is MMA. Thus, we actually believe Shevchenko has more tools to win this time around. Jedrzejczyk has never shown much on the ground, instead employing a Chuck Liddell style of just rising to her feet, which is going to be difficult here. The striking should be even but it's volume that aids Joanna in bouts and not power. It's going to be hard for her to win enough rounds as "Bullet" works in takedowns and mixes things up nicer. It'll be close but the end sees the blonde gunner getting "her strap."

* Joanna is unranked at Flyweight as she has never fought at the weight class in the UFC.

WINNER-Valentina Shevchenko by Decision


Alex Oliveira (19-5-1) +110 vs. Gunnar Nelson (16-3-1) -130

"The Brazilian Cowboy" is a cunt. The guy has cheated in multiple bouts and is an unprofessional asshole. We won't give him the time of day to break his game down. 

"Gunni" got the dreaded double eye poke from Santiago Ponzinibbio in '17 and was knocked out because of it. Now refreshed and ready to get back to work, Nelson will use his amazing Jiu-Jitsu skills and cold Icelandic demeanor to make another run at 170.

Fuck Alex Oliveria. Also, "Gunni" should be able to find his way to victory on the ground and hopefully he'll break something valuable to the Brazilian bitch.

WINNER-Gunnar Nelson by Rd.2 Submission

Hakeem Dawodu (8-1-1) -165 vs. Kyle Bochniak (8-3) +145

"Mean" Hakeem is a vicious kickboxer who doesn't have any skills on the mat.

Kyle is just a brick of a dude who isn't all that special on offense, but damned if he can't take an absolute shit kicking and keep coming. It's fascinating to watch.

Eating punishment doesn't earn points so Dawodu is the pick behind a diverse offense but it won't be easy.

WINNER-Hakeem Dawodu by Decision

#9 Jimi Manuwa (17-4) +165 vs. Thiago Santos (19-6) -190

These guys are almost mirror images of each other. That is not a racist thing but they both are strikers with power but nothing to speak of on the ground. That should make this a fun barnburner of a scrap and with both men having been put down multiple times, somebody going to sleep! It's hard for us to side with Santos against a top contender of the division, but anything here is possible.

Upset Pick WINNER-Jimi Manuwa by Rd.3 TKO


#4 Claudia Gadelha (16-3) -335 vs. Nina Ansaroff (9-5) +275

A couple of years ago, "Claudinha" looked like an eventual title holder, and then chinks slowly began to appear in the armor. After two failed attempts at then champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Gadelha got rolling again only to get stomped by Jessica Andrade and then narrowly defeating Carla Esparza in a match where she took a lot of damage. Claudia is still a lil' grappling tank and though there has been some wear, she has still never been finished in her career (jinx).

Ansaroff has won 3 in a row and we are baffled as to why. Sure she keeps working no matter what in the cage, but she doesn't have any impressive skills to lean on. She's just decent everywhere and a tough out.

We can't see a path where Nina wins this and in fact we find it a bad matchup for her. Claudia just needs to keep enough in the tank for the late push from Ansaroff and she'll win the day.

WINNER-Claudia Gadelha by Decision

#9 Katlyn Chookagian (11-1) -190 vs. Jessica Eye (13-6) +165

Yeesh. Here's a bout between a couple of overrated female fighters. Chookagian is alright but nothing special while Eye is a disaster of a human who competes with a low i.q. Kate can do enough technical striking to win on points though her pillow fists aren't going to do any damage. 

WINNER-Katlyn Chookagian by Decision

Eryk Anders (11-2) +100 vs. Elias Theodorou (15-2) -120

"Ya Boy" came into the UFC with a lot of hype and immediately it was apparent he was not ready for the competition ahead of him. Anders is an unrefined big fella that can hit. Moving on...

The gorgeous flowing locks of the ring card boy do little to distract from that fact he is booooooring as hell in the cage. Elias is durable and has smothering grappling that nobody wants to watch.

Eryk had better strike hard early because more likely he's going to be on his back for 15 excruciating minutes.

WINNER-Elias Theodorou by Zzzzzz

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-3) -120 vs. Gilbert Burns (13-3) +100

OAM wins MMAFO's award for "Best Halloween Costume in MMA" (see picture). Hilarious. Anywho, "The Quebec Kid" is exactly the type of grappler you'd expect from Tristar.

"Durinho" can put fools out in an instant but his true skills are in the Jiu-Jitsu game. 

We'll run with OAM to have enough game to stymy the assault coming his way and control this on the canvas.

WINNER-Oliver Aubin-Mercier by Decision

Fight Pass Card

Devin Clark (9-2) +475 vs. Aleksandar Rakic (10-1) -650

Get your refreshments and visit the restroom as there is nothing to see here folks.

WINNER-Aleksandar Rakic by Decision

Brad Katona (7-0) -185 vs. Matthew Lopez (10-3) +160

We're not even going to pretend to care about this bout.

WINNER-Brad Katona by Something

Chad Laprise (13-3) -380 vs. Dhiego Lima (12-7) +315

Lima has one of the more fragile chins in the division and it is just a matter of time before Laprise finds it to claim his 8th (T)KO win.

WINNER-Chad Laprise by Rd.1 KO


Carlos Diego Ferreira (13-2) -485 vs. Kyle Nelson (12-1)

Let's not skip over the fact that CDF returned from a 2-year cheater suspension in February. MMAFO hates cheaters but he'll win here over Kyle who is just filling in on short notice to provide a body.

* Jesse Ronson was pulled from the fight this week due to weight issues.

WINNER-Carlos Diego Ferreira by Rd.1 Submission

No comments: