UFC Fight Night 161Jedrzejczyk vs.Waterson: Fight Card, Musings + Odds

October 12, 2019
Amalie Arena
Tampa, Florida

Main Card on ESPN+ (9pm/CT):

#4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk -335 vs. #7 Michelle Waterson +275

The "Boogie Woman" is returning to where she won gold (we hope, weight cut pending). Joanna "Violence" had a rough 2018 losing a rematch against Rose Namajunas, but rebounded with a win over Tecia Torres, only to lose a title fight against Valentina Shevchenko to end the year. The Pole's career has struggled because of highly publicized weight cut issues but to date, she has never missed on the scales though rumors have been flying all week that Jedrzejczyk was seeking a catchweight bout which her opponent rejected. True or not, the weight cut has been continually rough on Joanna and coming back down 10 lbs. and her breast enhancements (not judging but it is added weight) can only make things worse. However, if ATT's mauler does make the 116 limit, the "Karate Hottie" should be worried.

Waterson is a great person and talented performer, but if all things are equal going in, she's going to get murdered. The kicking game is great but MMAFO believes we've seen Michelle peak and don't forget how the similar framed Rose Namajunas destroyed her.

Waterson better pray Jedrzejczyk doesn't make weight, because otherwise Michelle has only pissed off the "Boogie Woman" which spells disaster.

WiNNER-Joanna Jedrzejczyk by Rd.3 TKO

Kevin Swanson +130 vs. Kron Gracie -150

Jesus the UFC just can't give "Cub" an easy opponent can they? Swanson is only 35 but he's 65 in fight years. Dude has seen some battles. The respected veteran has lost 4 in a row and has tapped to submission fighters 7 (!) times in his career! 

Now comes the undefeated and significantly less worn Kron, who has tapped every opponent he has faced, and never seen the 3rd round. Granted, "Cub" is a step up in opponent, but not one the Gracie can't manhandle. 

This isn't going to be good for Swanson and you have to hope the UFC will not cut him and perhaps even give him a chance to win one in the future.

WiNNER-Kron Gracie by Rd.1 Submission

Mackenzie Dern -135 vs. Amanda Ribas +115

MMAFO has been very vocal about how overrated Dern is as a competitor and in the hearts of the fanboys. But give the Dern her do, she is a talented Jiu-Jitsu specialist and she does seem slimmed down after a layoff in which she had her 1st child (congrats btw). 

Ribas isn't impressive and has failed a PED test so you know she's dead to us.

WiNNER-Mackenzie Dern by Rd.1 Submission

Matt Frevola +140 vs. Luis Pena -160

OK we get it. Matt is the "Violent Bob Ross" and that's a funny gimmick but we still don't see what all the fuss is about. 

If the "Steamrolla" can calm down a bit, he's got a real shot to get the Upset here. The Serra-Longo fighter comes hard and if he can stay upright and use his power, he may paint Pena into an unhappy corner.

Upset Pick WiNNER-Matt Frevola by Decision

Eryk Anders -160 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +140

"Ya Boy" finally got to show his alleged knockout power last out but he's still far from a threat in the division. Still, "GM3" isn't going to give him any problems.

WiNNER-Eryk Anders by Decision

Niko Price -145 vs. James Vick +125

Vick of Team Gang Rape, has a big fucking mouth though he has been getting knocked into the dark realm and lost his last 3 bouts. James was a skyscraper at Lightweight but now he's moving up to Welterweight though he should still retain the height advantage.

"The Hybrid" isn't very careful in the cage but he does have the power to put you out. Based upon how Vick likes to stay on the line and not move his head, we'll back Price to find the mark 1st.

WiNNER-Niko Price by Rd.1 TKO

Ryan Spann -140 vs. Devin Clark +120

This is a good ole fashioned throw down!

"SuperSpann" has been getting the (T)KO's as of late, but he's a subber more often.

"Brown Bear" isn't as bad as people say and though the chin has failed him at times, he's decently well rounded.

We actually see this as being rather close but "SuperSpann" has the future upside so we'll pick him with some reservation.

WiNNER-Ryan Spann by Decision

Deiveson Figueiredo -185 vs. Tim Elliott +160

Confession time, we didn't realize Tim was still with the UFC. Elliott joined the UFC in '16 facing GOAT Demetrious Johnson and equating himself well. From there he went 2-1 and then disappeared like Keyser Soze. 

"Diaco" has a pretty record, but he was exposed against Jussier Formiga.

We guess "Goat Boy" FTW?

Upset Pick WiNNER-Tim Elliott by Decision?

Marlon Vera -155 vs. Andre Ewell +135

Aw shit we got "Chito" here all day! This is as close to a lock as you are going to get.

WiNNER-Marlon Vera by Rd.1 Submission

Miguel Baeza -200 vs. Hector Aldana +170

WiNNER-Miguel Baeza

Marvin Vettori -335 vs. Andrew Sanchez +275

WiNNER-Marvin Vettori by Decision

JJ Aldrich -160 vs. Lauren Mueller +140

We stick by our assessment that JJ is better than people think and tough as hell. That and the fact "Princess Tiger" isn't a UFC level fighter and the Irish lass takes the win.

WiNNER-JJ Aldrich by Decision