UFC 137 Penn vs Diaz Picks & Prognostications

UFC 137: Penn vs. Diaz
October 29, 2011
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Bouts (PPV):
B.J. Penn (16-7-2) vs. Nick Diaz (25-7) The two Gracie trained fighters meet in the main event after Diaz was pulled from the main event with Georges St. Pierre and replaced by Carlos Condit, thus creating this bout as the co-main event until GSP got hurt and is now Diaz is the main event again. Got that? Diaz comes in as the Strikeforce Welterweight Champion who has won 10 in a row with a sick volume of striking and his patented slick Jiu-Jitsu. The "Prodigy" is coming off the Draw loss to Jon Fitch and is a former two division UFC champion. Though Diaz will look to push the pace via a barrage of strikes, BJ will be better technically standing while the ground may be even. What Penn has that Nick does not is wrestling. Penn showed against vaunted wrestler Fitch that he can play that game and dominate as long as he doesn't completely gas himself out. Diaz wants to drag his opponents into a slugfest but Baby J should be smarter than that. Penn will take some punishment but has faced the elite of MMA while playing chameleon to his opponents talents. Nick has shown wrestling is his Achilles heel and if floored, I don't see BJ falling into his Jiu-Jitsu traps. Look for Penn to land some bombs early, realize the stand up is too tiring for him, and then take Nick to the mat where he roughs him up for the judges nod in a possible "Fight Of The Year."

WINNER-BJ Penn by Decision

Cheick Kongo (16-6-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (5-0) Kongo is an average fighter in an above average body. People get so caught up in his massive appearance that they forget how mediocre his game actually is. Kongo was KO'd twice in his last bout and won by shocking comeback simply because of terrible officiating. This is a big step up in competition for "Meathead" but one he is ready for. Matt is simply more fluid than the rigid and slow Kongo while employing highly underrated kicks and though we have not seen any ground from Mitrione, nothing Cheick does on the mat is going to catch anyone off guard. Mitrione will put his combinations together and slowly pull away in this fight if he doesn't stop Kongo who was felled against Pat Barry (Matt's friend and training partner) and Frank Mir. Look at Cheick's record is very telling and he'll never get out of the middle of the pack while Mitrione continues to improve quicker than anyone ever expected.

WINNER-Matt Mitrione by Decision

Mirko Filipovic (27-9-2) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6) I don't understand all the hate on "Big Country" these days. The jolly guy lost to Junior Dos Santos (#1 contender) and Frank Mir while in Denver's high altitude and with pneumonia. People say he isn't training hard but they really are just judging the man by his appearance. Roy has heavy, heavy hands, decent foot work, and very good grappling. He also has not had endurance issues save for the Mir fight in which he was ill. Now he refuses to take off his shirt at the weigh-ins while obviously wearing a fat suit and my theory that he has lost a lot of weight looks better than ever. I had this feeling Nelson is snowing everyone with the homeless looking beard and majestic mullet to keep people from noticing what he has really been doing which is training hard. "Cro Cop" comes in for the final fight on his Zuffa contract and just trying to put something decent together before his looming retirement. Though his recent knee and back surgeries are supposed to give us the "Cro Cop" of old, I think we are waiting for the cemetery kick that will never come again. Time is a bitch and though I love Mirko's chutzpah, he has not evolved while his opponents have. "Big Country" is going to take Mirko down if he has any trouble standing which I doubt. I just hope "Cro Cop" is still standing on his own at the end of this bout though I doubt it.

WINNER-Roy Nelson by Rd.2 TKO

Scott Jorgensen (12-4) vs. Jeff Curran (33-13-1) "Big Frog" actually asked for the "Vitalligo Warrior" in his return to the UFC bout. That was a huge mistake. Curran has transitioned well to a trainer but he has nothing for Scotty. This will be dominant and will be quick. Enjoy your last dance Curran.

WINNER-Scott Jorgensen by Rd.1 TKO

Hatsu Hioki (24-4-2) vs. George Roop (12-7-1) Hioki is the "final hope for Japan" bla bla bla. Besides all the tired rhetoric, Hatsu is a very good and well rounded fighter. Roop has played the spoiler a lot in recent times Upsetting Josh Grispi and Chan Sung Jung but he just isn't a top level guy. Hatsu really opened my eyes beating Marlon Sandro in Japan and the train doesn't derail here. There may be big dance jitters early, but there will be a tapout late.

WINNER-Hatsu Hioki by Rd.3 Submission

Prelims (Spike TV):
Dennis Siver (19-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (16-3) Its interesting to me how everyone is suddenly on the covered band wagon of the "Cowboy" when as he was nearing the end of the WEC days, most pundits thought he would wash out of the UFC. I have always thought he was a piece or two away from being complete and it all came together when he avenged a previous loss to Jaime Varner in January of '09. Now Cerrone is rolling in the UFC winning his last 5 bouts including schooling Lightweight prospect Charles Oliveira in only 3 minutes last out. Ze German has also been getting to work winning 4 in a row as both men eye the top of the division. Don has a massive reach advantage over his mini-T-Rex opponent who is solid as they come though he has tapped 4 times in his career. Cerrone is going to kickbox early until he decides to take things to the floor where Siver finds himself outmatched and out gunned. Possible "Fight Of The Night" candidate here with some exciting moments in a close combat.

WINNER-Donald Cerrone by Decision

Tyson Griffin (15-5) vs. Bart Palaszewski (35-4) Everyone and their dog has clamored for Griffin to return to Featherweight where he began his career and now he finally does. Unfortunately, he failed to make the weight by 3 pounds and loses part of his fight purse for it. "Bartimus" is also journeying to 145 but he made weight like a professional. If, and I say if, the weight cut, or lack thereof, didn't completely drain Tyson, he is a better fighter everywhere the fight could go. I thought Tyson looked weak and wobbly at the weigh-ins but if he is re hydrated properly, it should be his night.

WINNER-Tyson Griffin by Decision

Prelims (Facebook):
Brandon Vera (11-5) vs. Eliot Marshall (10-3) The "Truth" is that Vera has returned because Thiago Silva, who destroyed Brandon's nose, submitted fake urine to the athletic commission and was bounced for a year. Vera gets his millionth chance to stay employed and Zuffa throws him a softball in TUF washout and all around eh fighter Eliot. If there is 10% of the old Vera still in Brandon, he wins this easily.

WINNER-Brandon Vera by Rd.2 TKO

Ramsey Nijem (4-2) vs. Danny Downes (8-2) Nijem is one of those people who thinks he is funny when he is actually just annoying (isn't that right Pat Barry). I don't see what the "experts" see in this jackass while "Danny Boy" made everyone a fan when he survived on pure heart last out against the powerful Jeremy Stephens. Daniel may look like a high school kid that would get beat up in an instant but he has incredible heart and great training at Roufusport. I like Danny here with more smarts and experience to prove Nijem 1 dimensional and thus flawed.

Upset Pick WINNER-Danny Downes by Rd.3 Submission

Chris Camozzi (14-4) vs. Francis Carmont (16-7) Why the hell is "Grenade Chest" back in the UFC. Did someone in management lose a bet? Does he have compromising pictures of Dana White? Carmont isn't going to set the world on fire but he does have enough to out point Chris if'n he doesn't stomp him out.

WINNER-Francis Carmont by Decision

Dustin Jacoby (6-0) vs. Clifford Starks (7-0) Two undefeated wrestlers that should be interesting to watch but Starks is a little further along in his game at this point.

WINNER-Clifford Starks by Decision