Friday, June 06, 2014

UFC Fight Night 42 Henderson vs Khabilov: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds



June 7, 2014
Tingley Coliseum
Albuquerque, NM

Its the Jackson-Winkeljohn UFC event (and to a lesser extent, neighbor MMA Lab, Arizona) as Zuffa breaks new ground in a new state. The crowd will be chanting”Yes,” as fan favorite fool Diego Sanchez holds court while the judges favorite and inexplicable success story, Benson Henderson, looks to get back in title contention against the hard charging Russian “Tiger.” Should be fun stuff.

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Benson Henderson (20-3) -240 vs. Rustam Khabilov (17-1) +190


MMA Lab vs. Jackson-Winkeljohn
“Bendo” stated that there is no rivalry between the two neighboring camps as he is personally 3-0 and his team is 7-0 versus the New Mexico camp. Them be fightin’ words. 
Henderson and his annoying toothpick and christian antics again tries to steal a victory with the help of judges who seem to love long curly hair over actually landing punches. At any rate, “Bendo” is near impossible to keep down and has great kicks of all forms and a quick step jab. Benson is 9-1 in the UFC but hasn’t finished a damn thing winning 3 Splits in very controversial fashion.
“Hobby Lobby” has looked good winning his 1st 3 UFC fights and defeated tough Jorge Masvidal last out. Khabilov is a suplexing machine and has a nasty overhand right to put men down with.

This is a too much too soon moment folks. Rustam has potential to be a good fighter, but he’s facing a man who already is, and has held the gold. “Bendo” has so much experience in big fights and the most elite competition, that its hard to think the “Tiger” is ready for what he’s about to face. This is also scheduled for 25 minutes which is really Ben’s best asset. Even if Khabilov can hang early, he’s going to get run out of the cage late. Henderson keeps turning up the pace as he kicks his way to a decision he actually deserves this time.
WINNER-Benson Henderson by Decision

Diego Sanchez (24-7) +145 vs. Ross Pearson (15-6,1) -175

Jackson-Winkeljohn vs. Alliance MMA
The “Nightmare” is back....(crickets, crickets). Diego has said he is bringing the “Nightmare” back after failing to capture glory as the lame “Dream.” Anywho, Sanchez is jacked up to fight in his hometown and is 1-2 (though it should be 0-3 had the judges seen things correctly against Takanori Gomi) in his last 3 since returning to Lightweight.

The “Real Deal” is 4-2-1 since returning to Lightweight himself, and is coming off that pesky NC to Melvin Guillard who kneed him in the dome while grounded. Ross the “Boss” is just stellar at mixing up his striking attack with elbows, high and low kicks, head and body punches, and even takedowns. A worry is how easily the Brit seems to get cut up on the feet which could lead to a TKO loss. Of course Diego cuts easily as well so it could be a big night for the cut men in the corner.
Pearson’s technical boxing will meet Diego’s brawling style. There is little doubt that Sanchez is going to just come rushing forward, “gong and dash” style, the question is whether or not Diego really has anything left. We’ve seen Sanchez dimish before our eyes and has aged badly in fight years. He hasn’t been a good fighter since 2009 and never brings a smart game plan. Ross is the bet though gambling on this is a bad idea. If this goes to the judges, which is likely, judges tend to like the crazy blitz style and at home, anything can happen. Keeping a safe distance, Pearson should pull this out.
WINNER-Ross Pearson by Decision

John Dodson (15-6) -550 vs. John Moraga (14-2) +375 [Rematch]

Jackson-Winkeljohn vs. MMA Lab
This is an intriguing little bout (excuse the pun). These two Flyweights fought back in 2010 with Dodson taking the fight by Decision.

Moraga has really improved his game and showed real heart in a losing effort against Champion Demetrious Johnson. John is great in close mixing elbows and punches but is going to be at a big speed disadvantage.
The uber-annoying Dodson is ridiculously fast and possesses power unlike any at 125. Dodson can dot up foes and move away before they even feel the punch. John has great takedown defense and has the crazy athleticism of his fellow Monchhichi’s. 
Moraga is going to be running after Dodson and eating counters while doing it. John will need to ground John (heh, both Johns) but even if he could get the takedown (which we doubt) he can’t hold him there long enough to do anything. More likely, the “Magician” gets his range before knocking Moraga into next week.
WINNER-John Dodson by Rd.2 KO

Rafael dos Anjos (20-7) -305 vs. Jason High (18-4) +235

Kings MMA vs. ATT
RDA was on the cusp of a title shot when he ran into Khabib Nurmagomedov. Anjos is well rounded and we know about that Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt for which he earned his stripes. However, Rafael has really improved his combinations and really nice kicks. 
The “Kansas City Bandit” is making the move down to Lightweight and is a stud wrestler but lacks anything effective on the feet.

Its going to be a rough battle on the mat as both men have true skills on the ground but the feet is a wash. High could make things interesting early, but he won’t do much damage there which won’t win him any rounds. RDA scrambles better and marks up Jason en route to a judges nod.
WINNER-Rafael dos Anjos by Decision

Yves Edwards (42-20-1,1) +150 vs. Piotr Hallmann (14-2) -185

ATT vs. Mighty Bulls Team
Our beloved “Thugjitsu Master” is 4-4-1 since returning to Zuffa and is now 37 years of age. Yves is coming off a NC with Yancy Medeiros (who failed the drug test) but still brings some crazy combinations and the savvy of a veteran has has fought 64 times in 17 years!!

“Pletwal” is a Polish prospect won 10 in a row before losing a decision to Al Iaquinta last October. The 26 year old is very well rounded and quite large for the 155 class. Piotr is good in the clinch and likes to take an opponents back on the mat.

This is a sad panda moment for us. We’ve long championed Edwards and have hoped for a mighty final run in the the UFC for the first (though uncrowned) UFC Lightweight Champion but time has caught up to Yves. The chin ain’t what it used to be and the youngsters have been giving him more and more trouble. We hope for the upset but rationally pick the kid to out work the vet who waits to counter without the success of old.
WINNER-Piotr Hallman by Decision

Erik Perez (14-5) -120 vs. Bryan Caraway (18-6) -110

Jackson-Winkeljohn vs. Team Alpha Male
Mr. Tate is on the main card so the cameras can catch a glimpse of Miesha Tate cage side, and for that, we thank you. Bryan is 3-1 since coming to the UFC and has actually surpassed our expectations. A lone loss to the surging contender Takeya Mizugaki aside, Caraway has shown himself to be a steady grappler and has improved his striking mixing the two together in a fluid way.
The UFC wants big things for the Mexican “El Goyito” and the Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter can brawl too often at times, but has better Muay Thai skills that should be quite noticeable on this night. Perez doesn’t suck on the ground, but his advantages are definitely in the stand up game. 
If taken to the ground, Erik can avoid the submission loss, and will find his way back to the feet where he shines. The improvements are there for Perez as well who mixed in 7 takedowns in his last outing. Bryan has hit his peak while “El Goyito” will continue to rise.
WINNER-Erik Perez by Decision
Prelims on Fox Sports 1:
Yaotzin Meza (20-9) +375 vs. Sergio Pettis (10-1) -550


MMA Lab vs. Roufusport
The younger Pettis is back after suffering his 1st career loss in an eye opening experience last out. A loss for the 20 year old Roufusport product is actually a good thing. Its a wake up call that he’s in another level of fighting and can’t let off the gas or make a mistake against anybody. Duke Rufus will have the kid ready, and his competitive nature will launch him into a new atmosphere.

Meza has been alternating between and win and a loss for the last couple of years and trains at the MMA Lab. Thats about it. This cat is here to make Sergio look good.

Meza can’t handle what the “Phenom” is bringing on the feet and Pettis the smaller, snatches him up on the ground for the victory.
WINNER-Sergio Pettis by Rd.2 Submission

Bobby Voelker (24-11) -140 vs. Lance Benoist (6-2) +110


Finney’s MMA vs. St. Charles MMA
Bob has gone 0-3 since coming over from Strikeforce but they’ve been fun slug fests which has earned him this, perhaps, final shot. Voelker is a sturdy fella that enjoys a brawl and can throw a bit himself.
Benoist has been gone 15 months and was never very good to begin with. Hey, we tell it like it is. Lance’s Zuffa record is 1-2 with his last loss to Sean Pierson. Losing to the Canadian cop should tell you what this guy has to offer.
WINNER-Bobby Voelker by Decision

Scott Jorgensen (14-9) -225 vs. Danny Martinez (16-5) +175

Twisted Genetiks vs. Alliance MMA
Scotty J what the fuck? Poor “Young Guns” cannot catch a damn break these days. The salad days are gone as Jorgensen has lost 5 of his last 6 bouts and his last, which was his 2nd bout at Flyweight. Well, lets not all panic here. An accidental clash of heads cost Scotty against Jussier da Silva thanks to a referee that wasn’t paying close attention. Three of the losses were to former world champions and this is a guy you cannot count out.

Martinez is an alright Alliance fighter but nothing impresses in any real facet of the game. This is a “get right” fight for Scotty J who boxes early before sucking Danny to the mat to win on points.
WINNER-Scott Jorgensen by Decision

Jon Tuck (7-1) -165 vs.  Jake Lindsey (9-0) +135

MMA Lab vs. Combat Sports Center
Mr. Tuck has not impressed since coming over from Guam with a bit of hype. The “Super Saiyan” is meant for better things as the UFC hopes to push him in the Chinese market. Matchmaker Sean Shelby isn’t going to give Friar Tuck more than he can handle. Yet.

Lindsey is a decently tough guy with solid power. The real life Librarian has a true puncher’s chance, but that’s nothing to bet on.
WINNER-Jon Tuck by Decision
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Patrick Cummins (4-1) -325 vs. Roger Narvaez (6-0) +250


Reign MMA vs. FCF Academy
MMA’s favorite barista is back after a humiliating loss to Daniel Cormier which was really just a way to get his foot in the UFC door. Now we’ll see Pat use his skills against someone a little more his speed. “Durkin” does split time at Reign and Kings MMA where he can only improve with their cast of characters. “PC” is going to use his wrestling to take Roger down and pound him out.
The “Silverback” is taking this fight on short notice, opting out of a title fight in LFC, to take his show in the big time. Roger is now in the same situation Pat was in at UFC 170. Late notice, and fighting up a level in competition. Its not the massive step up that Cummins had to face, but a step up none the less. Roger’s best chance is to test Cummins who hasn’t been hit a whole lot in his short career.

Doubtful it happens as the larger “Durkin” puts down the fireman and part time MMA fighter before the final bell.
WINNER-Patrick Cummins by Rd.2 TKO

UFC Fight Night 42 Start Times
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT


Odds from Bovada.

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