Wednesday, June 25, 2014

UFC Fight Night 44 Swanson vs Stephens: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds


June 28, 2014
AT&T Center
San Antonio, Texas


Give a little love to your NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs as we take a board walk through UFN 44, that features an important Featherweight fight, and, oh, I guess thats just it. Well, Lamas is back from a weak showing against Champ Jose Aldo, some people enjoy TUF winner Kevin Gastelum,  and Joe Ellenberger finally gets his shot in Zuffa after multiple years battling paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (a rare blood disease) and multiple opponents dropping out of sight like Dwayne Wade after the finals. On to the nose picking. 
Main Card on Fox Sports 1:
Cub Swanson (20-5) -240 vs. Jeremy Stephens (23-9) +190


Cub is riding a nice 6 fight winning streak going into this 145 contender eliminator, having not lost since being submitted by Ricardo Lamas who you will see on down the card. Swanson is a Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter who has shown vast improvement in his game in recent years and is trying to erase that 8 second loss to Jose Aldo by getting back to the title.
After dropping 3 straight at 155, the “Lil Heathen” has resurrected his career at Featherweight winning all 3 of his bouts. The Alliance fighter has KO power in both hands and has used his aggression to keep opponents on their heels without answers.
This is a good, close fight, with two bangers who will enjoy mixing it up on the feet for the fans. Jeremy may be able to put Cub away at any moment with a single strike, but he’ll be at a speed disadvantage against a cat that can mix up the offensive attack much better. Both men have some gifts on the ground but 56% of the time, Cub will hit that drop and gain top position on his foe. Haymaker’s be damned, Swanson gets the win and takes another step closer to that gold strap.
WINNER-Cub Swanson by Decision

Kelvin Gastelum (8-0) -400 vs. Nicholas Musoke (12-2,1) +300

Kelvin has looked solid since winning another throw away season of TUF and is a massive Welterweight. Gastelum tanks forward to force men to the mat where he employs heavy G&P. Kelvin has the submissions in his arsenal, but the improved striking last out against Rick Story is truly the thing to watch here.
The Swedish “Nico” is a decent enough well rounded fighter, but he’s going to find the ground to be a rough place even though he has more submissions (5) than TKO’s (4) on his record.

Kelvin will get the takedowns when he needs them after continuing to test his new hands standing.
WINNER-Kelvin Gastelum by Rd.2 Submission

Cezar Ferreira (7-3) -190 vs. Andrew Craig (9-2) +155

“Mutante” sure looked mortal when he walked into a slight punch from CB Dolloway and went unconscious. Vitor Belfort’s prize pupil has a lot of power on the feet but is also a bit wild. 
Craig is a tough newer version of a man he defeated, Chris Leben. Andrew comes forward eating some shots while slowly wearing you out with big punches.
Neither man is going to set the world on fire but if we’re bangin’ it out on the feet, we’ll side with the Brazilian. Granted, he just got knocked out by a terrible striker but Craig looked so terrible in his last outing against Luke Barnatt, that we just can’t get the visuals out of our head. Cezar should rebound from a fluke KO loss and good on ya for finally fighting outside of Brazil.
WINNER-Cezar Ferreira by Decision

Ricardo Lamas (13-3) -200 vs. Hacran Dias (21-2-1) +160

Dias had won 9 straight until he ran into the grappling of Nik Lentz and got shutdown. Lamas is a better version of Lentz and coming off a poor performance in a title fight, he’ll be motivated.
WINNER-Ricardo Lamas by Rd.3 TKO

Clint Hester (10-3) +120 vs. Antonio Braga Neto (9-1) -150

We have been singing the praises of Clint Hester for some time now but this is a terrible match-up. Hester is a striker first and Neto is a crazy leglock specialist (much like Rousimar Palhares without the crazy) from the Team Nogueira camp. Antonio is going to grab a leg and go for broke (ha!). Hester can’t keep Braga off him long enough to do any damage with the fists as his nice 6 fight win streak comes to an end.
WINNER-Antonio Braga Neto by Rd.1 Submission

Joe Ellenberger (14-1) -260 vs. James Moontasri (7-1) +200

The “Moonwalker” is going to shine taking this last minute spot on the card to, oh screw it. James isn’t going to win anything. The Moon man is lacking in experience though he trains with the vaunted Black House team.

Joe has better hands than Jake (though less power) and is an all around better prospect. Take the newest Ellenberger to grind out the 25th replacement for this fight.
WINNER-Joe Ellenberger by Decision
Prelims on Fox Sports 1:
Colton Smith (3-3) +175 vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (9-0) -225

This Colton kid just isn’t that good folks. His record reflects the truth.

Ferreira is the LFC Champion and has faced some decent competition, such as he can get, on the way to the big time. Carlos is better striking (because Colton is so bad at it) and his Jiu-Jitsu will be pitted agaisnt Smith’s standard wrestling. Ferreira controls the stand up until he latches onto Colton to seal the deal late.
WINNER-Carlos Diego Ferreira by Rd.3 Submission

Johnny Bedford (19-10-1,1) -250 vs. Cody Gibson (11-4) +195

“Brutal” Johnny Bedford is back to put a body beatin’ on young Cody. Bedford is as massive as you can be at Bantamweight, and crushes dudes to the body though he’s known for making errors on the ground as seen against Mr. Tate.
WINNER-Johnny Bedford by Decision

Marcelo GuimarĂ£es (8-1-1) +145 vs. Andy Enz (7-1) -175

Guimaraes has looked just awful in the UFC and was KO’d in his last effort.
Enz ain’t gonna be confused as a striker but he’s got that Gracie Jiu-Jitsu thing down. Hell, Andy hung alright against Clint Hester on the feet so take the Alaskan to employ a grappling lesson.
WINNER-Andy Enz by Decision

Ray Borg (6-1) -400 vs. Shane Howell (13-7) +300

Yeah, so, Howell is returning to MMA after a two year absence and is moving up a couple of weight classes to take this last second chance at UFC glory. He won’t get it.
WINNER-Ray Borg by Rd.2 Submission
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Oleksiy Oliynyk (48-9-1) -155 vs. Anthony Hamilton (12-2) +125


Well I’ll be damned if the old “Boa Constrictor” didn’t get a call up to the dance. The Russian has won 39, yes thats 39 times by submission in his vast career, and is coming off a name win over Mirko Filipovic. Oliynyk even tapped submission ace Jeff Monson last June and is on a 9 fight winning streak!

Hamilton fights out of that Jackson-Winkeljohn camp and is the MFC Heavyweight Champion (wow, two champs on the prelims tonight!). Tony is big, strong, and will have all the height and length advantages.
You want to cheer for the 36 year old Russian to pull something off, but more likely he’ll get busted up on the feet trying for a takedown, and lose a lackluster fight on points.
Upset Pick WINNER-Anthony Hamilton by Decision
UFC Fight Night 44 Start Times
Main Card on Fox Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Preliminary Card on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET /  5 p.m. PT
Preliminary Card on UFC Fight Pass: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT


Odds by Bovada.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Go Spurs!