Sunday, October 27, 2019

UFC 244 Diaz vs. Masvidal: Fight Card, Prognostications + Odds


November 2, 2018
Madison Square Garden
New York City, New York
Nate Diaz (20-11) +145 vs. #6 Jorge Masvidal (34-13) -155

Let's just get this out of the way straight out the gate. This whole "Bad Motherfucker Belt" shit is embarrassing and pointless. The UFC proves they will do absolutely everything to put belts whether real, interim or otherwise, on the goddamn marquis. It's pro wrestling embarrassing having Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson place the belt on the winner all for the sake of money. 

Anywho, short soapbox over, this is a fucking great fight! Nate "Motherfucking" Diaz versus Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal in a no-backdown throwdown. Every MMA fan loves this fight!

209's favorite son gets back to work after a successful if not rusty return in August, besting Anthony "Wheaties Box" Pettis. Nate seems interested in getting in some work and we love the two month turnaround to get him back in ass kicking shape. Diaz acknowledged he'd train old school for this fight and the brothers Nick Diaz, Gilbert Melendez, and Jake Shields are already in town. 

Nobody lost their goddamn mind more after the 0:05 KO of Ben Askren last July than "Gamebred." You'd think he just defeated the GOAT or something though he has alternated wins and losses in his UFC career going 11-6 and on the edges of the Top 10. Masvidal has skyrocketed in popularity though he's 2-2 as of late getting out worked by Stephen Thompson and edged by old timer Demian Maia. People are also forgetting the history of Jorge where he is indecisive in appearances at times and others flat out staring at his foe like he's doing an impression of Rashad Evans. The ATT fighter has been more finish minded in recent times letting his solid hands go, and occasionally mixing in some ground work.

The ground isn't really an option against Nate and these men are going to put on a show not try to score points. So banging this out, we see Diaz taking damage early as it takes him a minute to get going. Masvidal is the exact type of opponent Diaz styles on. Aggressive, easily baited, and wanting to box. Jorge gets his way early until Nate adjusts and storms back with an onslaught beatdown and Masvidal survives to the bell.

Upset Pick WiNNER-Nate Diaz by Decision

#4 Kelvin Gastelum (15-4) -235 vs. Darren Till (17-2-1) +215

Geez, cut it close there Till. The Brit skated into America at the last minute which is always ideal for a fighter (/s), especially one who was humbled by Tyron Woodley and then wrecked by Jorge Masvidal and jumping divisions in hope for a win. Till talked a huge game for a while but now he must recognize the career is at a crossroads. If he loses here, in his 185 debut, it's three in a row for a guy who was obviously rushed into a title shot .

Gastelum has fit in nicely at Middleweight and with the recent  Upset over Ronaldo Souza, and the stellar effort in the loss to new UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya, Kelvin is a legit player in the division. Look at dude's record and you'll notice, no matter the division, this guy has taken the toughest fights and done well.

Maybe the change of scenery and easier weight cut bring new life to Till but MMAFO isn't buying. Guy is there to be hit with the stationary head and Gastelum will fight it multiple times before the light's out end.

WiNNER-Kelvin Gastelum by Rd.2 TKO

#6 Corey Anderson (12-4) +160 vs. #9 Johnny Walker (17-3) -170

We know this bout is actually lower on the card but WTF? This is an important contender maker bout with the winner on deck with Dominick Reyes stalking Jon Jones.

Corey has been putting in the work, head down, with the UFC not paying attention. Anderson spoke out leading up to this that he was told by UFC staff that basically he's boring. Corey's response is that he'll keep working his way up without any more emphasis on finishing than normal. In other words, he continues the status quo. 

That is, until Johnny Walker "Red" sashays into his path. Walker has won his last 9 fights including KOing the tough Khalil Rountree and using a flying knee to finish Misha Cirkunov. The only blemish was a post fight celebration in the cage where the elated Brazilian dislocated his shoulder dancing. Hey, shit happens but while interviews with his shoulder out of place, a star was born. Walker is just infectious fun and enjoys every moment in the cage unafraid to throw caution to the wind.

Anderson is the perennial spoiler, but not this day. Corey has been chin checked and found wanting on two occasions. "Beastin' Overtime" loses after each 3-fight winning streak and he's due. Johnny is going to catch "Too Cautious" Corey waiting and he'll need to have a conversation with Dominick Reyes.

WiNNER-Johnny Walker by Rd.2 TKO

Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) -107 vs. Vicente Luque (17-6-1) -105 

"Wonderboy" thought himself a champion but going 1-3-1 in his last 5 has Stephanie out of the Welterweight Top 10 for the 1st time in a long time. The Decision loss to Darren Till should have gone his way but the knockout loss to Anthony Pettis is troubling to say the least. Still, it was his 1st finish loss and he still has a lot of offensive tricks that score for judges. Thompson is now 36 but hasn't taken much damage in the career and is still relevant at 170 make no mistake.

The Silent Assassin has been around longer than you think in the UFC going 10-2. Mike Perry is the biggest "name" on the win roster for Luque but he's faced and beaten tough competition all the way up. 

Stephanie can really space this and tag up Vicente. Luque is a glutton for coming forward and that plays right into Thompson's kicking game and a smart Stephen stays safe and wins on the cards.

WiNNER-Stephen Thompson by Decision
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#5 Derrick Lewis (21-7) +100 vs. #8 Blagoy Ivanov (18-2) -110

We always miss "D-Lew" when he's away and the hilarious and beloved Heavyweight needs a win after back to back defeats to Junior dos Santos and Daniel Cormier respectively. Lewis has healed up nagging injuries is primed to get back into the title hunt again after coming up short in a last-minute injured appearance.

The Bulgarian struggled against Junior dos Santos as well in a loss but otherwise, he's been solid, gaining wins though not with any real flair.

The betting odds hint that it is expected that Blagoy can whether the storm and tire out Derrick. We've seen this tried by almost every Lewis opponent and more often that not, he catches rivals during the bout and that is all he needs before he unleashes the "Black Beast!"

WiNNER-Derrick Lewis by Rd.2 TKO

Andrei Arlovski (28-18) +130 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (8-0) -140

Arlovski is on a 1-fight winning streak and still taking up space on the UFC roster at age 40. Seriously, we're sick of this guy. "The Pit Bull" recently broke a 4-fight losing streak against cheater Ben Rothwell so good for ya on that. 

"Bigi Boy" is here to win as fast as possible and knocked out Allen Crowder in 0:09 last out! The guy is a big hitter with few skills as one might suspect.

What's more likely? Arlovski turning back the hands of time, or getting knocked senseless for the 11th time in his loooong ass career? 

WiNNER-Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Rd.1 KO

#7 Gregor Gillespie (13-0) -145 vs. #8 Kevin Lee (17-5) +135

"The Gift" to the Lightweight division has won 6 in a row for the promotion while finishing all but 1 enemy. Greg doesn't really want the fame attention as he is here to do serious business. Gillespie is looking to break you. The adopted Long Islander will not relent and has the skills to end things early so he can go back to fishing.

MMAFO has always found Mr. Lee to be an overrated fighter, an actually really smart and interesting human, and a guy who has proven to make the wrong move in big fights. "The Motown Phenom" is brash as hell on the mic, but his in-cage game is more grappling basics, with improving, though not deadly, striking. His natural ability carries him far but he always falls short at the top because opponents don't fear his offense and can take chances to implement theirs. That makes this Gillespie's fight and a frustrating night for the reeling Lee. Greg gets the bump and nears a title shot.

WiNNER-Gregor Gillespie by Decision

Shane Burgos (12-1) -225 vs. Makwan Amirkhani (15-3) +205

Burogs has been winning his way up the division and his last win over Kevin Swanson is his 1st "name" scalp. 

"Mr. Finland" was the shit when he came into the UFC in '15, and true to his word, Amirkhani has coasted. Makwan fights very infrequently really needs to work the mat.

It's going to be hard for Amirkhani to get Burgos down, and to do anything significant there. Makwan's not going to find a sub and thus he loses at least two rounds in a possibly slow, fight.

WiNNER-Shane Burgos by Decision

Brad Tavares (17-5) +140 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (10-0) -150

Tavares has been around forever just treading water his entire career.

The UFC must be really high on the 21 year old because they are moving him up the roster quickly. Shahbazyan is managed by Ronda Rousey but he's also proven to be an exciting finisher quickly to his credit. 

Tavares is still a tested veteran and still quite durable and though maybe not a contender, he's still a player. This is a dangerous fight for a youngster going against an experienced man who can mix up the attack and stay out of dangerous situations. We're going against the hype and say Brad frustrates Ed who is just getting too much too early.

WiNNER-Brad Tavares by Decision
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#4 Jennifer Maia (17-5-1) +125 vs. #7 Katlyn Chookagian (12-2) -135

It really seems like the winner of this contest will get a title shot against Valentina Shevckhenko

Maia is a grinder at 31 out of Chute Boxe and has been facing elite competition for a long time.

This is a toss up coin-flip fight. MMAFO likes Chookagain to gain the advantage striking even if the hits don't do much damage. It scores points.

WiNNER-Katlyn Chookagian by Decision

Lyman Good (20-5) -115 vs. Chance Rencountre (14-3) +105

Lyman "It's All" Good is a dangerous man of granite, indestructible to all but Demian Maia. Lyman's gonna put "the Good" on Rencountre and end things early. 

WiNNER-Lyman Good by Rd.3 TKO

Julio Arce (16-3) +100 vs. Hakeem Dawodu (10-1-1) -110

"Mean" Hakeem is the more technical kickboxer but Are actually opened eyes in a gutsy loss to Sheymon Moraes last year. Ya gotta like Dawodu on power as well which makes for a fun opener.

WiNNER-Hakeem Dawodu by Rd.2 TKO

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