MMA Fight Opinion: UFC Fight Night 164 Blachowicz vs Jacare: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds!

November 16, 2019
Ginásio do Ibirapuera
São Paulo, Brazil

It’s a UFC Brasil card so you know the UFC is spamming together a bunch of crap and phoning in the effort. Nah, there's actually some interesting potential here with some aging but still relevant Brazilian heroes

Main Card on ESPN+ (7pm/CT):

#8 Jan Błachowicz -170 vs. Ronaldo Souza +160

"Jacare" is making the dreaded move up in weight debuting here at 205. Souza has done about all he can do at 185, where he was a perennial contender but never quite got to the gold. Souza is now 39 and the move smacks a bit of desperation but the time is now to make a last run at a UFC Championship. If anything has caused concern recently it is Ronaldo's inconsistency. The Brazilian was really a step behind Kelvin Gastelum for much of their contest and listless in his loss to Jack Hermansson while looking like a killer waxing Chris Weidman with a brutal knockout. "Jacare" always has that stellar Jiu-Jitsu but he's definitely slowing down.

MMAFO can't say shit to Jan. Every single bout this guy is in we pick wrong whether we're for or against him. The Pole was just an also-ran his whole career until '17 and something changed. Blachowicz suddenly had passion and was revelling in the fight instead of just going through the motions with decent though unimpressive success. Jan also began to become more relaxed and let his personality out before bouts nodding to his new comfortability in self. The Berkut Fighter may not be fast, but he keeps a steady attack, has power, and can go anywhere.

Both of these Light Heavies are durable as all hell we expect a really strong scrap. Blach will have a nice reach advantage as well as a natural size advantage in the division in which he is well established. We don't see "Jacare" getting many opportunities to get things grounded and thus in a standing boxing match, we like Jan to plod his way forward accepting abuse but dishing out just a bit more to spoil the rookies arrival.

* Also, MMAFO Friendly Reminder that Jan Blachowicz murdered Luke Rockhold last out and we all thank him for that.

WiNNER-Jan Blachowicz by Decision

Mauricio Rua -275 vs. Paul Craig +250

It has become the thing to malign "Shogun" every time he appears at this late stage in his career talking about how he should retire, the litany of injuries, lack of durability, and talk of his "prime" but fans and pundits should also remember, Rua has won 4 of his last 5 with the lone loss to stud Anthony Smith. Mauricio has skills in every facet there has always been great heart in this guy! People write "Shogun" off time and time again but he will always be dangerous and beloved in the homeland for that extra motivation.

Then there's Paul Craig. He's a pretty good grappler and that's about it. Not much else going on and quite frankly, we don't find him to be a UFC level fighter. Truth.

"Voce vai morrer, voce vai morrer!" Tell your hero what's up Brasil and "Shogun" puts in on the "Bearjew" for a fantastic 1st round finish!

WiNNER-Mauricio Rua by Rd.1 TKO

Charles Oliveira -405 vs. Jared Gordon +360

"Do Bronx" is a nasty motherfucker and we mean that as a compliment. Chuck is in his prime at age 30 (it feels like he's been around forever at this point) and has peeled off 5 straight wins, all by finish, and all against decent opponents in the always stacked Featherweight division. Oliveira uses his length to his advantage striking and grappling while bringing some bully viciousness that we like and find a lot of fighters lack today.

"Flash" Gordon is alright but oddly this seems like an opponent in the wrong direction for Oliveira. Quite frankly, Charles is better than this and shows out.

WiNNER-Charles Oliveira by Rd.2 Submission

Antonio Arroyo +110 vs. Andre Muniz -120

Wha, why is this on the Main Card?

WiNNER-Andre Muniz by Rd.2 Submission

Markus Perez -110 vs. Wellington Turman +100

WiNNER-

Prelims on ESPN+ (4pm/CT):

Sérgio Moraes +175 vs. James Krause -190

A couple of MMAFO favorites meet in a bid to stay relevant in the Welterweight chaos.

"The Panther" has fallen on hard times as of late going 2-3 and looking like we've seen the peak from the 37 year old Jiu-Jitsu player with the nice smile.

The Missouri native doin' good winning 5 in a row while becoming a respected MMA coach on the side.

This is a fascinating match because both men are so long and love the grappling game. Similar styles should make for a barn burner here but we go with the younger, hungrier Krause to rep that Mid-west.

WiNNER-James Krause by Decision

Ricardo Ramos -370 vs. Eduardo Garagorri +330

WiNNER-

Francisco Trinaldo -135 vs. Bobby Green +125

"Massaranduba" was so good, for so long, without much fanfare, that it's sad to see him start to wind down the career. Trinaldo has been around forever battling mid-tier talent, winning some losing others, but always seemingly just a tad outside of the elite.

Meanwhile, Bob is just a disaster of a human being. There's always ridiculous drama going on in his personal life and he's played with retirement multiple times, so what exactly is his motivation here other than making a check? 1-4-1 in his last 6.

Time is not Trinaldo's friend at this point but the train wreck of Bobby Green should provide some trouble, but Franny can still do enough in top position to win 2 of 3 rounds.

WiNNER-Francisco Trinaldo by Decision

Warlley Alves -125 vs. Randy Brown +115

WiNNER-

Douglas Silva de Andrade -240 vs. Renan Barao +220

WiNNER-