UFC 178 Johnson vs. Cariaso: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

September 27, 2014
MGM Grand Garden Arena
Las Vegas

Main Card on PPV:
Flyweight Champion Demetrious Johnson (20-2-1) -1130 vs. Chris Cariaso (17-5) +1075

So, there isn’t a whole hell of a lot to talk about here. The MMA media and fans were left scratching their heads when Cariaso was announced as the next title challenger despite barely being ranked in the MMAFO Top 10 and having not beaten anyone on said list. The UFC could/should have tapped Ian McCall, Jussier da Silva, or almost anyone else really. This isn’t a dump on Chris session, its just bizarre and he doesn’t pose much of a threat to “Mighty Mouse.”

The only question for this title fight, is will Johnson get the stoppage, and will the fans hang around for the final fight unlike last June when the crowd emptied while Demetrious handled cheater, Ali Bagautinov? Hopefully they will, as “Mighty Mouse” is truly a combat artist and one of the best Pound4Pound fighters in the game today.
WINNER Demetrious Johnson by Rd.3 Submission

Donald Cerrone (24-6, 1) -107 vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-3) +100

The “Cowboy” is ready to welcome former 2X Bellator Lightweight Champion, Eddie Alvarez, who finally gets his shot in the UFC!

What a long strange trip it has been for Eddie to make it to the loving arms of Zuffa. Alvarez went 9 and 1 for Bellator winning the strap twice, and notching legendary contests against rival Michael Chandler and becoming embroiled in a nasty contract dispute with former Bellator President Bjorn Rebney. Ed is a boxer by nature with technical skills, a tricky run through right hand, and a powerful left uppercut and hook. He’s not really a ground technician but he can scramble out of bad situations with pure speed and determination.

The “Cowboy” for his part, is a much better grappler who just enjoys brawling. Cerrone is a talented kickboxer with knees that tend to wilt opponents, but he is very hittable and sometimes starts fights slow. Donald also has a tendency to get caught up in the moment and forget whatever game plan Greg Jackson devised in camp.

This is going to be a fun fight no two ways about it! Both of these guys only deliver exciting action packed fights but who has the advantages. Throw out the “Cowboy’s” great submissions as he’s just not going to use them. Both men tend to leave themselves exposed and take lots of damage in fights but the fans are going to enjoy it. You could flip a coin, but Cerrone does possess a kicking arsenal which should keep Ed at bay and unable to land with too much force, while mixing in those subtle knees that create havoc. Its a throwdown of epic proportions in the Lightweight division where either man can be the victor, but the fans will be the true winners!
WINNER Donald Cerrone by Decision

Dustin Poirier (16-3) +246 vs. Conor McGregor (15-2) -265

The “Notorious” one has changed the game and Dustin “Diamond” is not a fan! The brash talk has rubbed the ATT fighter the wrong way and now the Irish phenom has his 1st true litmus test at Featherweight.

For all the big talk and bravado, McGregor does have quite a staunch skill set. The guy has strong long kicks and mixes in hook kicks and reversals that keep opponents guessing. The natural athletic ability and raw power are always on display with his boxing as well as some nifty takedown defense. Conor's angles and footwork are very underrated and though he gets under opponents skins, he doesn't lose control in fights and keeps to the plan at hand.

Poirier is the more well rounded fighter. He is a good striker/wrestler but he is susceptible to being drawn into wars as his anger rises which has got him into trouble in the past. Dustin has much better ways to get his foes to the ground and doesn't allow much space as he ratchets up the pressure as the fight goes along.

A big problem for the "Diamond" in this fight is that he is easy to hit early, and that plays right into the strength of McGregor. As mentioned, Dustin also loses his temper and control which is exactly what Conor has been looking for by infuriorating the ATT fighter at every turn. Dustin's chin is an issue as we continue to check off reasons to pick Dana's boy. McGregor grins as Porier makes an early mistake and the Irishman capitalizes in brutal fashion to keep the hype train going.
WINNER Conor McGregor by Rd.2 TKO

Tim Kennedy (18-4) +129 vs. Yoel Romero (8-1) -142

Welcome to Wrestlefest 2014! Here we have a former Army Green Beret who specializes in mat warfare, versus Yoel the “Soldier of God,” and Cuban Silver Medalist of the 2000 Olympics.

Romero may have the legit stats, but there is no doubt that Timmay has based his game on wrestling while training over at the Jackson/Winkeljohn camp. Kennedy has won 4 in a row, 10 of his last 12, only dropping decisions to Middleweight studs Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo Souza. Timmaydowah has good, not great, hands, but his smothering, dry hump, wet blanket grappling earns him his wins.

Romero is a physical freak at age 37, who despite being touted as a bad ass wrestler, which he is, he’s (T)KO’d 7 foes in brutal fashion only seeing the judges cards a single time. However, The guy, is a monster. His only weakness, his bowels. 

Kennedy will want no part in a striking contest here, and though Romero has the gold, he is very susceptible to takedowns. Yoel gets so aggressive, he over extends and that will be his downfall. Tim will nab takedown after takedown, and though he prolly won’t do much with it, the judges will nod his way.
Upset Pick WINNER Tim Kennedy by Decision

Cat Zingano (8-0) -247 vs. Amanda Nunes (9-3) +236

Since becoming the #1 contender after defeating Miesha Tate in April of 2013, its been all bad news for the “Alpha” Cat. She blew out her knee before she could take part in what would have been a life changing role as Coach on the Ultimate Fighter opposite Champion Ronda Rousey, and suffered a devastating personal tragedy in her life. Now Zingano returns with two surgically repaired knees that were given regenerative stem cell treatment last October. Cat has never been defeated and brings a lot of power with her game. Zingano has strong knees and has a nice vicious streak to her. 

The “Lioness” has won her last 2 bouts and is sneaking her way up the rankings. Nunes is a boxer and karate fighter but sometimes hits cruise control and forgets to be aggressive in bouts. Amanda can also lose her wind as fights drag on which is always a concern.

Nunes can knock out just about any woman in the game today but she’s going to struggle when trying to win a decision and you can just forget about the Jiu Jitsu game. This is the “Alpha” Cat’s fight to lose and with all the loss she has suffered in recent days, lets hope the MMA Gods are kind.
WINNER Cat Zingano by Decision

Prelims on Fox Sports 1:
Dominick Cruz (19-1) -400 vs. Takeya Mizugaki (20-7-2) +385

Dominick Cruz is returning to fighting and just a shade under a decade. All right. Time for some full disclosure. We at MMAFO have three issues with this match. We are huge Urijah Faber and Takeya Mizugaki fans, and we loathe Cruz. 

Nobody knows how the Alliance fighter is going to return after his 4,000th knee surgery. The guy is fragile but he can tap and dance his way to victory with the least amount of force possible. 

The beloved “Miz” is on the hottest streak of his career, winning 5 straight fights and putting his name near the top of the Bantamweight division. Takeya never stops coming and brings the Pride (ahem) of Japan with him. 

Cruz might twist a knee or injure a toe en route to the cage, but if he makes it inside, the “Miz” will need to grab a hold of Cruz and hold on for dear life. That is much easier said than done. If, IF,  Takeya can get Dominick down, he’s got a shot. More likely, Cruz does the damn dance yet again and point fights his way to his 1st victory in over two years. Hopefully not.
WINNER Dominick Cruz by what else, Decision

Jorge Masvidal (27-8) -344 vs. James Krause (21-5) +325

“Gamebred” has gone 4 and 1 in the UFC but now he’s meeting, from Lee’s Summit, Missouri, James “The James Krause” Krause! James won 8 in a row before he was kicked in the nuts multiple times by Bobby Green in November of last year, but rallied this May breaking Jaime Varner’s ankle. Krause is a dynamic fighter with cardio for days, showcased by a blistering attack of low kicks, jabs, and a staunch left hand.

Masvidal is a tough as nails boxer who can earn takedowns when needed, but he does slow as the night progresses. 

Krause won’t give Jorge the time to breathe while peppering him with strikes and avoiding the takedown. James is more new blood, improving each time out and hungry, while Masvidal has seemed to just be going through the motions lately. Maybe he wakes up here with an opponent who will really push him, but we like the underdog.
Upset Pick WINNER James Krause by Rd. 3 Submission

Patrick Cote (20-8) +309 vs. Stephen Thompson (9-1) -340

And we sing, “Cote, Cote, Cote, Cote...Coteeee, Coteee.” Well, now that is out of the way, the “Predator” has won 3 straight but despite bringing the power that never goes away, he’s looked quite robotic lately, and time may be catching him.

“Wonderboy,” what is the secret of your power? The Karate phenom has also won 3 straight and seems to be figuring out this whole MMA thing. He’s learning that a ground game is necessary for success, but his striking has made him popular in the sparring world as he has been brought into top camps, where he no doubt has gleaned a bit of knowledge for himself. The improvements have been quite visible but this is easily the toughest test of his young career.

Here we have one of those one guy going up, while the other is coming down situations. Cote has 1 punch KO power, but that is his only chance here. “Wonderboy” is going to light him up with a myriad of strikes while testing that granite chin of Patrick all night long.
WINNER Stephen Thompson by Decision

John Howard (22-9) -213 vs. Brian Ebersole (50-16-1) +193

“Doomsday” is bringing the thunder in his 2nd run for the Zuffa banner. “Hairrow” has lost a couple in a row and straight disappeared after last November’s loss to Rick Story.

The Bostonian improved his all around game when he left Zuffa for a stretch. Howard has a good chin and natural power in his hands while Ebersole prefers an odd stance and some crazy, not so effective striking. Brian has comparable wrestling to Howard but a better submission game.

The deciding factor is that if things do play out on the mat, "Doomsday" can control his opponents well and more likely, we'll remain standing as Howard displays some solid takedown defense while busting Brian up standing.
WINNER John Howard by Decision

Prelims on Fight Pass:
Jon Tuck (8-1) +191 vs. Kevin Lee (8-1)  -213

The “Super Saiyan” from Guam is 2 and 1 for the UFC and is coming off a unique win where he used heel strikes to the rib to submit his opponent. "Friar" Tuck has the better striking for sure, but he is also guaranteed to be completely gassed out after a single round.

Oh, Mr. Lee, Mr. Lee, just survive the opening frame, and the night is yours by wrestling clinic and little else.
WINNER Kevin Lee by Decision

Manny Gamburyan (13-8) +180 vs. Cody Gibson (12-4) -190

Jesus, someone tell Manny its time to hang it up already. I mean, you do need to have some sort of offense to win a fight for shit’s sake. The “Manvil” is hoping slimming down to 135 will change his fortunes. C’mon guy, he’s gone 2, 4, and 1 since 2010, and he’s just not any good.

The fresh faced “Renegade” is a decent wrestler who is big for the division, and not much to write home about striking.

Much like Cote/Thompson, its a young gun versus a guy on his way out. Take the kid and wave goodbye to Man Gam.
WINNER Cody Gibson by Decision

UFC 178 Start Times
Prelims on Fight Pass: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main Card on PPV: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT