Wednesday, November 05, 2014

UFC Fight Night 56 "Shogun" vs. St. Preux: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

November 8, 2014
Ginásio Municipal Tancredo Neves
Uberlândia, Brazil
Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Mauricio Rua (22-9) -160 vs. Ovince St. Preux (16-6) +130

"Shogun" is back after the heartbreaking loss to Dan Henderson and not looking to retire anytime in the near future. The Brazilian is a legend and at home, the motivation only grows. Despite his up and down record in the UFC (6-7), Rua still has the ability to finish fights in an instant with some of the heaviest punches from top position. Mauricio has decent takedowns and slick trips to get opponents down where he wears them like a glove. "Shogun" can still get it done on the feet using one punch KO power and some absolutely nasty clinch fighting.

OSP is the faster fighter with a tight wrestling base and power in the hands, but he is quite susceptible to takedowns and tends to fade in all his fights. Against Ryan Bader, he had no answer for an offensive grappler and could not get his mitts on his opponent. 

Obviously, MMAFO is leaning heavily toward the Brazilian. OSP is probably in good shape even taking this fight on late notice, but he has never been in great shape for a fight. St. Preux also throws few combinations instead opting to do his boxing slowly which is a bad game plan against the oft blitzing "Shogun." If Rua can start hot this could be over rather quickly and if not, he'll slowly establish his dominance not worrying about being finished by his younger rival. It's Rua all day and most likely by finish.
WINNER- Mauricio Rua by Rd.2 TKO
Ian McCall (13-4-1) -205 vs. John Lineker (24-7) +165

"Uncle Creepy" is a man of his word, and when Lineker missed weight on his 1st attempt (he would make the 126 lb. limit later) McCall paused on stage, gulping his coconut water and grinning at the man who has missed weight a million times. 

When they get to the cage, Ian is easily the better all around fighter. "Uncle Creepy" is uber fast, even for a Flyweight, and puts combinations together well before taking fools down and just schooling them on the mat.

Lineker is basically a heavy hitter without much to offer. Now, those heavy hits are the hardest in the Flyweight division, but if grounded, McCall's specialty, he is inept at best. 

Not only will McCall win this fight, he'll look good doing it. Ian enjoys a good scrap but he's no dummy. There is an obvious flaw in the Brazilians game and he has made no doubts that he plans to exploit it. With 5 ounce gloves, John can catch anyone, but not this night. "Uncle Creepy" exploits Lineker and calls out the "boring" champ for a future rematch!
WINNER- Ian McCall by Rd.3 Submission
Warlley Alves (7-0) -305 vs. Alan Jouban (10-2) +235

"War" Alves won TUF Brazil 3 and fights out of the feared X-Gym alongside Ronaldo Souza. Warlley is probably the only good fighter to come out of the TUF Brazil casts and he is similar to his teacher "Jacare." Alves can submit opponents in a flash transition, or pummel them from top position to set up the tap or TKO.

Jouban, who they can't stop mentioning used to "model," is actually a pretty good fighter. "Brahma" trains with Black House and has improved his Jiu-Jitsu game thanks to Eddie Bravo at 10th planet. The former RFA Champ is a quick paced southpaw striker with stellar endurance and is fun to watch.

This is a real coin flip match. Both of these guys scream potential and excel in different areas of the fight. It will come down to who can impose their will and that could easily go either way. MMAFO leans to Alves ever so slightly, seeing him use the clinch to get in and take Jouban down where he is at his weakest, and Warlley is strongest. Don't be surprised if it goes the other way, but this bout has "Fight of the Night" written all over it.
WINNER- Warlley Alves by Decision
Claudio Henrique da Silva (10-1) +190 vs. Leon Edwards (8-1) -240

Henrique "The Hannibal" is a Jiu-Jitsu player but he is very, very slow and his boxing skills are abysmal.

Edwards is the BAMMA Welterweight Champion coming over from England on a 6 fight winning streak. Leon has a bevy of strikes to choose from and watch for his beautiful flying knee. Edwards doesn't want to fuck around on the mat but is adept at scrambling back to his feet. 

Edwards can sprawl and brawl against this cat all night and eventually, he'll find the killing blow.
WINNER- Leon Edwards by Rd.2 KO
Juliana de Lima Carneiro (6-2) +125 vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-3) -155

"Ju Thai" is decent in all facets but a master of none. 

The American has a nice jab to set up combinations but gets a little crazy with her beloved overhand bomb. Nina should not try to grapple yet.

WINNER- Nina Ansaroff by Decision
Prelims on FOX Sports 2:
Diego Rivas (5-0) -125 vs. Rodolfo Rubio (12-6) -105

The "Pitbull" (oh how original of a nickname) has some speed in his combinations but it also rather small for Featherweight and lacks strength.

Rubio is the better submission fighter and uses scrambles well to confuse opponents on the mat.

This is a TUF: Latin America cast off fight. These two guys are shit  and will most likely be seen at Bantamweight next. At any rate, Rivas is more explosive and has the gas tank advantage which gives him the slightest advantage in a close, but totally unimportant fight.
WINNER- Diego Rivas by Decision
Caio Magalhaes (8-1) -250 vs. Trevor Smith (12-5) +195

Yuck, is about the best you can say about this affair. Neither guy is ever going to move the needle and who really cares who wins this.
WINNER- Caio Magalhaes by Decision
Dhiego Lima (9-2) -350 vs. Jorge Oliveira (7-0) +265

The younger Lima brother is an athletic kickboxer but the ATT's advantage in this fight will be his grappling. Dhiego is slick on the mats and won't want to try and trade with Oliveira, the better striker. 

Jorge has also take this fight on a single week's notice which is never good for anyone. Tack on the fact that Oliveira is also a Lightweight moving up in weight for the opportunity, and you have the recipe for disaster.
WINNER- Dhiego Lima by Rd.2 Submission
Leandro Silva (11-2-1) -125 vs. Charlie Brenneman (19-7) -105

Jesus Christ, "The Spaniard" knows how to implode and go down in flames like few others, but he has all the advantages here. Brenneman is the far better wrestling but his jaw is made of fragile glass and he'll find a way to go down in flames as always.
WINNER- Leandro Silva by Rd.2 TKO
Thomas Almeida (17-0) -400 vs. Tim Gorman (8-3) +300

Chute Boxe's "Thominhas" has finished ever single man he has faced, and only 2 have managed to escape to the initial round! The LFC Bantamweight Champion is a dizzying striker who can just do everything! Almeida plays the angles well and brings natural power in his fists. Watch this kid. He has true potential.

Gorman is awkward at striking but a decent wrestler as far as that will take him.

This is a decent test for Almeida's takedown defense but that's about it. Thomas should pick his spots and then absolutely destroy Tim in violent fashion.
WINNER- Thomas Almeida by Rd.1 TKO
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Colby Covington (6-0) -550 vs. Wagner Silva Gomes (3-1) +375

The curtain jerker is actually one you don't want to sleep on. Colby is a legitimate prospect to watch grow. The undefeated ATT Welterweight is a former NCAA Division-I All-American with a brutally strong shot, vicious G&P, and great instincts for the game.

WSG is making the drop from Middleweight down to 170 which will give him the size advantage. Gomes is the better striker but he is just so-so on the canvas.

Covington will execute the takedown and from there he'll blast Wagner out of the Octagon.
WINNER- Colby Covington by Rd.1 TKO
UFC Fight Night Start Times
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 2: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT

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