UFC Fight Night 59 McGregor vs. Siver: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

Main Card on FOX Sports 1:
Conor McGregor (16-2) -1100 vs. Dennis Siver (22-9) +650

Dana’s favorite son, the “Notorious” one returns with a title shot on the line should he best ze German. Conor brings his stellar cardio, assortment of kicks, and southpaw striking with power and speed. The plan is to get an opponent confused into circling into his power left hand for a nice uppercut or some technically beautiful combinations. McGregor’s movement is a thing of beauty all its own. He deftly uses lateral movement to open up wide angles and charges back in with opponents unsure of which weapon he is about to deploy. Though primarily an offensive fighter, the Irish hero has solid takedown defense and his SBG gym has him prepared with escape plans should he be taken down.

Ze German kickboxer is known for his near perfect turning side kick but Siver has smooth striking in combinations and good head movement for a guy with no neck. Dennis is also adept at sneaking in nice knee taps for takedowns but he doesn’t do much once there.

Basically Conor, don’t fuck this up. The MMA world knows this is set up as a showcase for McGregor, but Siver is a battle tested veteran. Though the ridiculous odds do not reflect it, this wouldn’t be a massive upset for the educated MMA fan should Dennis win. Conor’s speed and output should carry him to the finish line against a smaller and slower foe, but we’ve seen the likes of Kimbo Slice and many others fall on the cusp of a title shot. A smart McGregor keeps his distance and if this goes past the 1st round, which we believe it will, don’t be shocked if its McGregor who sneaks in some takedowns to ensure victory.
WINNER-Conor McGregor by Rd.2 TKO


Benson Henderson (21-4) -145 vs. Donald Cerrone (26-6,1 +115 [Trilogy]

The “Cowboy” is not the smartest man, but he is exciting. Cerrone takes this fight with perennial Top 10 Lightweight “Bendo” on short notice and if that isn’t enough for you, Cerrone has already lost to Henderson, twice! The 1st meeting back in 2009, was for the WEC Lightweight strap which Benson won in an exciting fashion. The 2nd meeting came in 2010 when Henderson tapped Cerrone in the very 1st round with a tight guillotine. Maybe Donald is afraid of getting another title shot and failing, or maybe he just doesn’t care and loves to fight.

We know the “Cowboy’s” plan at this point in his career. Bang it out and earn a bonus check. Not exactly the smartest way to manage a career, but damned if he ain’t exciting and the fans love him. Cerrone loves a brawl and that is something Henderson will not oblige.


MMA Lab’s “Smooth” is coming off his 1st career KO loss to now #1 contender Rafael dos Anjos in August of ’14. Ben had gotten back on track after dropping his belt to Anthony Pettis in ’13 but the KO loss was devastating to his chances of getting near “Showtime” in the future. Henderson always has great movement, kicks he uses like jabs, flexibility that rivals BJ Penn, and is solid in any position in the fight. At times “Bendo” gets complacent and doesn’t work enough offense, but badly needing a victory should curb his laziness.

So let’s see. Henderson likes to push opponents against the cage where he excels in clinch work and surprises foes with his natural power. And “Cowboy” struggles without space to work.  Benson starts fast while Cerrone takes time to get warmed up. Henderson has been honing his skills in safe camps, while Donald is fighting every other weekend which has to catch up with him sometime. Cerrone likes to get buck wild which leaves him open for “Bendo’s” safe, for a lack of a better term, stalling, tactics. Hmm. We’ll take “Smooth” to do what he do and win 2 of the 3 rounds, maybe even doing that 10 seconds left so I’ll take you down to steal the round shit, which the judges always fall for. 
WINNER-Benson Henderson by Decision


Uriah Hall (9-4) -850 vs. Ron Stallings (12-6,1) +525

The “Choir Boy” has balls taking this fight on 15 minutes notice and all, but he’s about to get KTFO! Stallings is coming in on a loss, and ya know what, let’s just cut the shit. Ron is here to get murdered because two opponents dropped out. Siver beating McGregor wouldn’t be crazy, but this would be!
WINNER-Uriah Hall by Rd.1 KO


Norman Parke (20-2-1) +120 vs. Gleison Tibau (32-10) -150

This is one of the toughest fights to call on the card. Tibau brings crazy size and power while suffocating men on the ground. Gleison is the gatekeeper to the elite of the 155ers and this is the test needed for Parke.

The fake Irishman (see the political history of Ireland and Parke’s own allegiance's for explanation) has a stern base backed by his Judo skills that include trips and throws. Norman throws a lot of strikes but with no real power to speak of. He’s a generally good all around fighter who has not yet shown the skills to step up to the next level.

A perfect casting job done by the UFC here. Neither man can be taken down easily which points to a stand up kickboxing bout that should favor Parke. However, gaudy record aside, MMAFO just hasn’t seen anything from Norman that makes us believe he is anything other than a mid-tier fighter. Granted, Tibau isn’t going to be getting a title shot, ever, but he has faced far more elite competition and by that we mean, Parke hasn’t fought shit yet. Maybe this is Norm’s coming out party, but we doubt it.
WINNER-Gleison Tibau by Decision


Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
Cathal Pendred (15-2-1) +130 vs. Sean Spencer (12-3) -160

Spencer is a kickboxer with zero power and zero ground game.

The Irish (we are in Boston people) Cathal is aggressive in pursuit of takedowns and just out works guys standing. That will lead Pendred to victory as Spencer heads back to the minor leagues.
Upset Pick WINNER-Cathal Pendred by Decision

John Howard (22-10) +125 vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-4) -155

Larkin is the better flashier striker with the size advantage and better movement standing.

The rub is, “Doomsday” is the hometown hero who has longed to fight in Boston on a UFC card. Fate much? Howard is no slouch striking but his real gifts come from his stellar single and double leg takedowns. John roughs guys up on the mat but can’t always keep them there. The Bostonian needs a clean mix of in clinch striking and wrestling to excel past the gifted offense of his rival.

It should also be noted, a desperate Larkin is making the drop from 185 down to 170 for the 1st time here. The “Monsoon” has lost 3 in a row and his career is on the chopping block. Howard has competed at Middleweight, but is most comfortable at Welterweight where he has fought for most of his career. The cut could be detrimental to Larkin, and quite frankly, the guy doesn’t have the best in fight i.q. We believe “Doomsday” has enough savvy to mix up his attack and win the final 2 rounds in a close come from behind win.
Upset Pick WINNER-John Howard by Decision


Zhang Lipeng (8-7-1) +350 vs. Chris Wade (8-1) -500

It should be noted that MMAFO picked against Lipeng with extreme prejudice last August, and he proved us wrong. Ugly record aside, the “China Warrior” is a natural athlete with dirty clinch work (that’s a compliment).

The problem be (sic), that Wade is also a natural athlete and strong clinch fighter but he also possesses a wrestling game. Though still pretty raw, this youngster has some true potential for the future while Zhang is just another hope from the UFC who is desperate for a Chinese star.
WINNER-Chris Wade by Decision


Patrick Holohan (10-1-1) -275 vs. Shane Howell (13-8) +215

Ole “Paddy” got a wake up call in his last effort gassing early against a late replacement and losing on the cards. Lesson learned. Holohan is yet another SBG fighter but Pat relies on submissions. His stand up requires using his reach advantage to latch onto you and drag you to hell. 

Howell’s main weakness is that he gets caught in submissions. You can add this one up yourself.
WINNER-Patrick Holohan by Rd.2 Submission

Johnny Case (19-4) -185 vs. Frankie Perez (9-1) +150

Johnny “C” is an Alliance fighter on a 9 fight winning streak. Case has good not great combinations and some submissions in his arsenal.

Perez is a student of retired MMA and Jiu-Jitsu stud Ricardo Almeida and gets to workout with the likes of Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza. So, ya know, he’s got that going for him. 

Frankie is a bit small for the division and he’s going to struggle standing against Case. Based on Case’s solid takedown defense, Johnny “Hollywood” peppers Perez on the feet and gets the judges nod.
WINNER-Johnny Case by Decision

Charles Rosa (9-1) -145 vs. Sean Soriano (8-2) +115

Bostonian Rosa, the hometown hero on the card, fought Dennis Siver on late notice to get his shot in the UFC last October, which was his 1st professional loss.

The Blackzilians Soriano is decently well rounded but he’s no ace in any field.

This is a toss up but the homer’s here at MMAFO will not let us pick against the honorary Celtic. Rosa is just as good in the same areas but it will be a close one going down to the wire.
WINNER-Charles Rosa by Decision


Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Matt Van Buren (6-3) +155 vs. Sean O’Connell (15-6) -190

MVB is as average as they come but he does train out of Alliance which is a good camp. 

The “Real OC” isn’t much better but he does have some power in his hands and more experience. 

This is a shit match and the loser leaves town for good.
WINNER-Sean O’Connell by Decision

Tateki Matsuda (10-6) +140 vs. Joby Sanchez (6-1) -170

Finally, Jackson-Winkeljohn’s Sanchez darts in and out with some success but he needs to up his volume of strikes.

Matsuda trains out of the Sityodtong gym which makes him as hometown as they come. 

Neither man is very good so just flip the ole coin.
WINNER-Joby Sanchez by Decision


UFC Fight Night Start Times
Main Card on FOX Sports 1: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT