Friday, January 23, 2015

UFC on Fox 14 Gustafsson vs. Johnson: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds


January 24, 2015
Tele2 Arena
Stockholm, Sweden
Main Card on FOX:
Alexander Gustafsson (16-2) -285 vs. Anthony Johnson (18-4) +225

The "Mauler" is ready to "Rumble" past Johnson for a title shot in the homeland to signal that the MMA God's have softened their wrath to allow for the big fights we all want to see this year.

Gustaf is 8-2 for the UFC and rebounded from his loss to Jon Jones by stopping Jimi Manuwa last March. The Alliance fighter has great footwork/movement as do most at said camp while bringing a continual stinging jab and showing he can hit some takedowns though he doesn't do much once there.

"Rumble" hits like a ton of bricks but tends to slow in matches and this being a 25 minute affair does not bode well for the Blackzilian. Tony has a very nice left high kick that he unleashes with blistering speed and power but does have a tendency to look down when he gets to swinging wild. Johnson has a far better wrestling shot than Alex and can muscle foes to the mat when necessary, but he is currently in love with his power.

We fully expect Johnson to have his moments in this contest especially in the early goings. But eventually, time and peppering strikes from Gustafsson, who is not there for the counters Anthony loves, will wear down his opponent and stage a gratifying come from behind win on the cards.
WINNER-Alexander Gustafsson by Decision

Dan Henderson (30-12) +375 vs. Gegard Mousasi (35-5-2) -550

Oh Dan, Dan, Dan. Will you please either stop fighting and retire, or move to Bellator where you have a chance. When was the last time you saw "Hendo" win a round not counting the last fight with "Shogun" in which he was losing badly only to hit the "H-Bomb" that saved his life? Dan is dangerously slow and relying on a single weapon is not a good game plan.

The "Dreamcatcher" is far faster, has an excellent chin, and can out wrestle and out strike Henderson in all facets of the game. This is a nightmare matchup for Danny as the "Young Vagabond" lights "Hendo" up however he feels like while trying not to seriously injure Grandpa. 

Look, we all love Henderson but he hasn't looked like a good fighter since 2011! "Sweet Sassy Mousasi" has only improved his game and he is smart enough to avoid that "H-Bomb" while pitching a shut out on the cards.
WINNER-Gegard Mousasi by Decision

Phil Davis (13-2) -240 vs. Ryan Bader (19-4) +190

We have an Upset special here folks! Never have we seen a man with so much potential, just completely stall out in his career. "Mr. Wonderful" has not evolved as one would hope and now we know (thanks to Anthony Johnson) that he doesn't take hard shots well either. Sure Davis has wrestling chops, but so does Bader. Phil has some nice kicks and jabs but zero power. 

"Darth" Bader kinda became a joke in the MMA world after his embarrassing loss to Tito Ortiz but he has improved his game and brings some real power with him. You have to worry about Ryan leaving his chin exposed, but not when he is facing feather fisted Davis. Bader has also slowly thinned out his muscle mass for a leaner and more endurance friendly style.

Bader is not Glover "I Have No Answer For Wrestling" Texeira here. Davis never looks good even when he defeats top tier opponents and he hit his ceiling long ago. Look for Bader to keep the fight standing while chasing Phil around the cage for an uneventful judges nod.
Upset Pick WINNER-Ryan Bader by Decision

Akira Corassani (12-5,1) -130 vs. Sam Sicilia (13-5) +100

Akira is back after 2 consecutive (T)KO losses bringing his weak chin, powerless striking, and absolutely nothing else. 

Sicilia isn't going to set the MMA world on fire anytime soon but he does have power in his hands which should be the difference maker. Sam struggles on the ground but he doesn't have any worries for that here. We like Sicilia to not only win here but to stop Corassani who we see for the last time in the UFC.
Upset Pick WINNER-Sam Sicilia by Rd.2 TKO
Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
Nico Musoke (13-3) +105 vs. Albert Tumenov (14-2) -135

Sweden's own Musoke has overachieved in the UFC but that comes to a grinding halt here. The Russian Tumenov has serious strength in his striking and put his last 2 Zuffa opponents away in the 1st round with extreme prejudice. Albert roughs up Nico early and often before putting him to sleep.
WINNER-Albert Tumenov by Rd.1 KO

Kenny Robertson (14-3) +140 vs. Sultan Aliev (13-1) -170

The Sultan of swing makes his debut in the UFC against a grappler which is his kryptonite. Robertson may not look like much but the guy is relentless with his takedowns and suffocating wrestling which plays out here perfectly for 15 minutes. Then somebody give Aliev a razor for his body.
Upset Pick WINNER-Kenny Robertson by Decision

Andy Ogle (9-5) -160 vs. Makwan Amirkhani (10-2) +130

Yeesh, this is a shit match. Ogle refuses to go away despite being on a 3 fight losing streak. The Brit is average everywhere but "Mr. Finland" is a bit of an unknown. Andy has worked a bit with Team Alpha Male and his persistent striking and a mixture of takedowns or at least the threat of such action wins him this tepid affair.
WINNER-Andy Ogle by Decision

Nikita Krylov (17-4) -130 vs. Stanislav Nedkov (12-1) +100

Its Bulgaria versus Russia as the oh so odd Krylov faces the returning Nedkov who has been absent finding his smile for 2 years. If, and that is a very strong if, Stanislav has learned to put any gas in his tank, he is far more well rounded. However, we have seen the Bulgarian gas mere moments into matches before. 

Though pitched as a submission fighter, Krylov is piss poor on the mat when facing fighters that are not tomato cans. Nikita really has nothing to offer except for his size and length advantage.

We oh so cautiously pick Nedkov by decision, but don't be surprised if he gasses hard a few seconds in and loses.

* Update Weigh-In Change. Now MMAFO is picking Krylov. Nikita is looking in great shape and has a crazy height and reach advantage. 
WINNER-Nikita Krylov by Rd.2 Submission

Mairbek Taisumov (22-5) -950 vs. Anthony Christodoulou (12-4) +575

"Beckan" will finish Christodoulou in the 1st round and expect nothing else. This guy is im-pressive!
WINNER-Mairbek Taisumov by Rd.1 KO

Mirsad Bektic (8-0) -700 vs. Paul Redmond (10-4) +450

If you're Irish like Paul and have won a professional bout, expect a contract offer from Zuffa. Redmond may be a decent fighter but he is facing a true prospect fighter in Bektic. Mirsad is a monster for the Featherweight division and Paul is coming in on short notice. Redmond's favorite weapon is the toe hold which has not been relevant in MMA since Frank Mir tapped "Tank" Abbot in 2003!
WINNER-Mirsad Bektic by Rd.1 TKO
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Viktor Pesta (9-1) +290 vs. Konstantin Erokhin (9-1) -380

Holy shit Erokhin is a big fucking Russian! Jeezus this guy has power and Pesta is just a lamb to slaughter.
WINNER-Konstantin Erokhin by Rd.1 KO

Neil Seery (14-10) +165 vs. Chris Beal (10-0) -205

This could be one of the closest fights on the card despite the drastically different records. Beal is a natural athlete with power who loves to throw highlight knees and crazy shit. Unfortunately, he has yet to learn the fundamentals of MMA.

The Irish Seery is tough as they come but lacks athleticism and is aging rapidly. Neil has no problem brawling toe to toe and that could be his undoing.

This is a pick 'em fight as both men could win in a slugfest. We narrowly choose against our countryman in a close decision but hope that we are wrong.
WINNER-Chris Beal by Split Decision
UFC on FOX 14 Start Times
Main Card on FOX: 
8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT


UFC Fight Night 59 Picks 9-3

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