UFC on FOX 15 Machida vs. Rockhold: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

Main Card on FOX:
Lyoto Machida (22-5) +140 vs. Luke Rockhold (13-2) -170

Whew, now this is a Main Event! Two legit Middleweights vying for the strap. AKA’s Rockhold is brilliant everywhere. Luke’s body kicks destroy souls and his Jiu-Jitsu is underrated. Rockhold is a finisher who has only stumbled against a roided out of his mind Vitor Belfort while destroying everyone else. Luke comes forward and is a massive Middleweight! Luke isn’t an amazing wrestler but his clinch work makes wrestlers change their mind about getting close.

Machida isn’t a guy who likes to get close instead striking at range and darting in for KO power strikes in the blink of an eye. The Karate is fundamental and must be respected but he shows weakness from his back.

Rockhold is the quick starter facing the plodding of the “Dragon” who will not enjoy the pressure continually coming his way. Lyoto will escape at times, and may not be put away, but Luke definitely has the advantages in the hurt department and breaks down Machida to at least get the judges nod.
WINNER-Luke Rockhold by Decision


Ronaldo Souza (21-3) -1600 vs. Chris Camozzi (21-9) +800 [Rematch]

Well, at least we get to see “Jacare” fight.
WINNER-Jacare Souza by Rd.1 Submission


Cub Swanson (21-6) -155 vs. Max Holloway (12-3) +125

Strikers, strikers, get your strikers here. These boys are going to throw down old school kickboxer style with punches, elbows, and knees in varied combination attacks. Should be fun. Max has the size but Cub has the more well rounded game and the veteran should get it going early against the slow starting Holloway.
WINNER-Cub Swanson by Decision

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Felice Herrig (10-5) +100 vs. Paige VanZant (4-1) -130

In an obvious attempt from the UFC to put “two hot girls together,” we have what is actually a pretty exciting matchup with blondes that go for broke. “12 Gauge” is coming off about as perfect a UFC debut as possible when she showed ultra-aggressiveness and overwhelming pressure to stop Kailin Curran last November. PVZ is very much still a rookie who is going against a grizzled veteran in Herrig. VanZant has terrible takedown defense.

Felice fancies herself a kickboxer but she’s really become a grappler 1st but she has a ton, an absolute ton of experience in comparison to the youngin. 

PVZ should have a good ability to scramble which she’ll need as she gets taken down time and time again. Getting up and getting the offense going are going to be difficult against the strength of Herrig. And technically speaking, Felice is a bitch of a woman fighting a nice girl.
Upset Pick WINNER-Felice Herrig by Decision


Prelims on FOX:
Jim Miller (24-5,1) +150 vs. Beneil Dariush (10-1) -185

King’s MMA breakout star Dariush is a massive “Lightweight” who will have a visible size advantage over the longtime Jersey veteran. Beneil is a brilliant Jiu-Jitsu player who is rapidly improving his striking with a blossoming kicking game.

Miller got wiped out by the “Cowboy” last July but he’s a tough as they come blue collar striker/wrestler who has seen it all which may be the problem. Jim hasn’t looked elite for a moment now and may be on the down facing a young buck on the way up.

We just keep seeing the size advantage in our mind but its also that Dariush may just be better in every facet of the game. If Jim needs a moment and looks for the takedown he will get tapped. Its gonna be real hard for Miller to do business in close and not get taken down. A hurt on the feet leads to a tap on the ground and a bad night for Jimmy.
WINNER-Beneil Dariush by Rd.2 Submission


Ovince Saint Preux (17-6) +100 vs. Patrick Cummins (4-1) -130

An intriguing Light Heavyweight bout as OSP looks to continue on the momentum he established KOing “Shogun” last November on short notice. OSP is 5-1 since joining the UFC with his lone loss being a wrestling lesson from Ryan Bader. Preux must have elite takedown defense if he’s not going to repeat the Bader fight.

“Durkin” has quietly rebuilt his reputation since sneaking into the Zuffa roster as a late replacement to get annihilated by Daniel Cormier. Cummins is a pretty good wrestler, but that’s all he’s got.

Either OSP has figured out how to avoid the canvas, his in and out striking should break up Pat’s rhythm but, if not, Cummins lays for a 15 minute borefest. A coin flip really.
Upset Pick WINNER-Ovince St. Preux by Decision?


Corey Anderson (4-0) -380 vs. Gian Villante (12-5) +290

Gian has gone 2-2 since joining the UFC but those 2 losses were debilitating and embarrassing performances. Villante fancies himself a striker but gets hit more than about anyone on the planet. The gas tank is always low and his wrestling skills haven’t exactly translated fluidly into MMA. Gian is Chris Weidman’s best buddy, so, he’s got that.

“Beastin 25/8” is an undefeated TUF 19 winner and wrestler who trains under Jiu-Jitsu ace Ricardo Almeida. Anderson has decent striking though he is very green at this point in the game.

Corey might just put Gian away with his hands early, but if not he should easily win the day when the cards are read. Anderson should be able to take Villante down when necessary, or just test out that fading chin of Gian’s.
WINNER-Corey Anderson by Decision


Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) +300 vs. Aljamain Sterling (10-0) -400

As Mizugaki “marks,” you have to give MMAFO a bit of a pass when touting the brilliance of the “Miz.” Takeya is an always aggressive grappler looking to take you into deep waters and control you from his smothering top game.

The undefeated “Funk Master” is a blue chipper who trains out of the Serra-Longo camp. Sterling is a transition wrestler who dizzies opponents on the ground and uses long kicks to set up distance. The boxing is coming along but still needs work.

The more Aljamain steals from “Miz’s” playbook in mixing up takedowns and striking at all times while never letting Takeya get comfortable. Sterling controls Mizugaki more than he doesn’t for a 15 minute win.
WINNER-Aljamain Sterling by Decision


Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
George Sullivan (16-3) +145 vs. Tim Means (23-6-1) -175

The “Dirty Bird” has run off 3 wins in a row and is nasty in every area. He champions himself as having, “the best elbows in the business” which isn’t too far of a stretch. Means breaks men down with a constant stream of attacks and will power.

The Pellegrino student has won 8 bouts in a row, (T)KOing 11 rivals by ruthless aggression. Sullivan is a grinder who is also looking to break his opponents will.

These two men collide in a violent stand up war in which Tim is able to use his reach advantage and then surprise George up close with dangerous clinch fighting. Avoiding the takedown, Means scores more points with his higher offensive diversity in a close run to the finish.
WINNER-Tim Means by Split Decision


Diego Brandao (18-10) -165 vs. Jimy Hettes (11-2) +135

Brandao is the oft out of control fighter who has had his measure taken in his last two outings in which he was (T)KO’d in brutal fashion to Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier respectively. The Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter is a strike 1st worry about the plan later kinda guy.

Hettes is also coming off tough loss to Dennis Bermudez last March and is an average grappler. Jimy is quite hittable and is a terrible striker.

In the battle of two terrible fighters, we expect Diego to get off 1st and that will be all that’s needed to put Hettes away.
WINNER-Diego Brandao by Rd.1 TKO


Eddie Gordon (7-2) -500 vs. Chris Dempsey (10-2) +350

Serra-Longo’s “Truck” is coming off that disastrous head kick KO loss to Josh Samman last December. Joe Silva has pitched Gordon a softball here as the UFC wants to get Ed back to his “prospect” status. Dempsey is built to lose and restore the confidence of Gordon. The End.
WINNER-Eddie Gordon by Decision


UFC on FOX 15 Start Times
Main Card on FOX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX: 6 p.m. ET/ 3 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT