Saturday, July 25, 2015

UFC on Fox 16 Dillashaw vs. Barao II: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds



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July 25, 2015
United Center
Chicago, Illinois

Main Card on FOX:

Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (11-2) -230 vs. Renan Pegado (33-2) +180 [Rematch]

We've been waiting for this rematch for over a year now as "Barao" struggled with making weight and then TJ got injured. Finally, we get the rivals together in what should be another barn burner. 

TJ has become a new man under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig who turned the wrestler into a lethal striker. 

"Barao" had won 32, yes that's 32 fights in a row until he ran into Dillashaw's hand that scrambled his mind and had him on autopilot in May of last year. Renan is an elite striker with smooth Jiu-Jitsu.

Both of these guys can strike. Both of these guys can grapple. Both of these guys can go for days. So what separates them in this rematch? Well, TJ has shown to be far faster, a better wrestler (remember, wrestling generally beats Jiu-Jitsu), and his footwork is amazing! Both guys are so good, and we could see it going any way, but the percentages lean toward the champ but we're expecting fireworks.
WINNER-TJ Dillashaw by Decision


MIESHATATE.COM
Miesha Tate (16-5) -210 vs. Jessica Eye (11-2) +170

The oh so lovely "Cupcake" has run off 3 in a row and is trying to mess around and get into the title hunt. Again. Tate is a wrestler at heart and God bless her, she works on her striking but she just doesn't have any power there. That being said, Miesha has added muscle in this camp which should only aid her in getting ladies to the ground where she controls and looks for subs. Despite her beautiful face, Tate is one of the toughest and most durable women in MMA today.

Eye is a bit of an enigma. The confident lass seems to think she is a champion and the MMA pundits have talked her up quite a bit though MMAFO just doesn't see it. Jessica is a boxer by trade but she lacks power and the takedown defense is so-so.

Tate will play around on the feet a bit but eventually she is going to take Eye down and run game. Miesha is just a higher level fighter and has more options to win and the intelligence to do so.
WINNER-Miesha Tate by Decision

Edson Barboza (15-3) -145 vs. Paul Felder (10-0) +120

Oh Edson, what the fuck are we going to do with you? Sometimes this Brazilian striker comes out and looks like he can take on the world, and at other times he's timid and gets eaten alive by grapplers (hello Mr. Michael Johnson) who pressure him. Dude has speed, power, kicks, combinations, and a sweet jab though the chin is fragile.

Renzo Gracie's "Irish Dragon" has gone 2-0 for Zuffa including a highlight spinning backfist that just shutdown Danny Castillo last out. Felder is a solid striker you have to believe our favorite Gracie has this guy trained on the mat. The ginger is a big 155er but has not been tested or in peril as of yet in his career.

This bout is set to let us know just how good Paul really is. This is a true test but the counter striking of Felder will catch Ed off guard and that chin is going to shatter. MMAFO looks for the Irishman to graduate past the Brazilian who has zero defense and can no longer take the hits.
Upset Pick WINNER-Paul Felder by Rd.3 TKO

Joe Lauzon (24-11) -365 vs. Takanori Gomi (35-10) +275


The "Fireball Kid" versus "J-Lau?" Sign us up! This is the way to start off the Main Card with two guys who just go for broke and through caution to the wind without a care.

Lauzon is a vicious attacker who will have a massive size advantage who will go to war standing just for fun, but if he gets things to the ground, he's a submission master.

Gomi is a beloved throwback to the Pride FC days for us and we always root for the guy. Even so, Takanori is a big hitter but has always struggled greatly on the mat though he has improved the takedown defense. Gomi must hurt Joe quickly to have a shot here.

Unless Lauzon has completely lost his mind and decides to trade punches in a phone booth with Gomi, this is his fight all night long. Joe's reach will provide problems for Takanori and God forbid they hit the canvas because the Japanese icon will be tapped post haste. Not many ways Gomi can win this and "J-Lau" will be searching for our "Submission of the Night" honors.
WINNER-Joe Lauzon by Rd.2 Submission

Prelims on FOX:

Gian Villante (13-5) -235 vs. Tom Lawlor (8-5) +185

If there is one shining light concerning the Reebok deal, its that we don't have to sit through Lawlor's moronic weigh-in skits. What a fucking idiot. Anywho, Tom has been gone for over 2 years milking the fact that he can say he's a UFC fighter knowing that his next fight could be his last with the promotion. Tom wrestles. Nothing else.

Villante is a hard one to figure out. The guy is a good boxer in training but allows himself to get hit all the damn time. Gian also has a background in wrestling and yet you can count the number of times he's used it on one hand. If his takedown defense is on point, and it isn't always, he has nice combinations and far more offense than his adversary but Jesus man work on your endurance.

We could see Tom doing the lay and pray for 15 minutes but his cardio was questionable when he didn't have a 2 year layoff. Surely, BFF Chris Weidman is training up Gian and he'll have him ready for the one thing Lawlor can throw at him. Right?
WINNER-Gian Villante by Decision

Jim Miller (24-6, 1) -140 vs. Danny Castillo (17-8) +110

Its hard times as of late for the Miller brothers as it seems the rest of the world has caught up to their skill level and perhaps the wars are taking their toll. The "Jersey Devil" (we made that up) has lost his last two contests but they were to Beneil Dariush and Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone so keep that in mind. Miller is a crushing grappler who uses beautiful elbows in close coming from the southpaw stance.

"Last Call" is a wrestler who boxes as a necessity and has no issue with laying on an opponent if its his route to victory. We have no problem with that because a win is a win but he lacks the offense to really worry opponents. Castillo has been KO'd twice in his 5 UFC losses and he has never reached the upper echelon of the game.

This is a really interesting fight and very hard to call. Its hard for us to pick against such a well traveled veteran like Miller who has just done and seen it all. However, we do worry about Jim being worn down over the years but we still don't think its time for the Jersey native to walk away. Very close fight.
WINNER-Jim Miller by Decision

Kenny Robertson (15-3) -115 vs. Ben Saunders (18-6-2) -115

"Killa-B" is in the house bitches! MMAFO doesn't even try to hide our man crush on Saunders. Ben is good everywhere but his Jiu-Jitsu game (under trainer Eddie Bravo) is his best asset though he is really long and likes to fuck men up with his knee strikes.

Robertson is your run-of-the-mill wrestler who is ridiculously boring to watch. The guy is a solid grappler and that has been the Achille's heel of Saunders in the past.

If this wasn't "Killa-B," we'd lean the other way but we are believers in Ben Saunders and we'll roll with the ATT fighter until the wheels fall off. War "Killa-B" and haters be damned!
WINNER-Ben Saunders by Rd.2 Submission

Eddie Wineland (21-10-1) -150 vs. Bryan Caraway (19-8) +120

Ed is a former WEC Champion who's career has been up and down in the UFC. Wineland can bang with anyone in the division and has stellar takedown defense not to mention durability.

Everyone hates Caraway because he gets to be with the ultra-lovely Miesha Tate, but the guy really is a well rounded fighter. Bryan never stops coming (perhaps that is why Tate loves him so) and has many ways to get men to the floor whether with trips or multiple shot attempts. 

That last sentence provides the loss for Bry guy. Caraway needs to get in close to do his work and Eddie is going to light him up! As mentioned, Wineland is superb at staying vertical and his power shocks opponents when they get hit. Both of these guys are tough as nails but Eddie is a monster at a higher level.
WINNER-Eddie Wineland by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Daron Cruickshank (16-6, 1) -160 vs. James Krause (21-7) +130


"The Detroit Superstar" looks to rebound from a brutal eye poke NC to KJ Noons and a loss to Beneil Dariush. Daron has a lot of flash in his kicking game and throws some spectacular spinning shit with power. Cruickshank also mixes in some takedowns to keep foes honest and has some good boxing skills.

James "The James Krause" Krause (still love that as a nickname) is a fellow exciting fighter who has lost 3 of his last 4 but he's big for Lightweight at 6'2" and likes to kick quite a bit just like his opponent, but without the power. James can really push the pace but he's going to be a bit outgunned here in what should be an entertaining match if nothing else.
WINNER-Daron Cruickshank by Decision

Ramsey Nijem (9-5) -145 vs. Andrew Holbrook (9-0) +115

The undefeated "Hoosier" is getting a shot at the big dance against The Pit Elevated's Nijem. There are just too many unknowns on Andrew and it is likely that Ramsey puts the pace on the rookie and provided he can keep his hittable chin down, he'll out grapple Holbrook and has faced a far higher level of competition.
WINNER-Ramsey Nijem by Decision

Jessamyn Duke (3-2) +145 vs. Elizabeth Phillips (4-3) -175

Duke already has one foot out the door as she eyes a future in the WWE working professional wrestling and she's dropped back to back fights. Jess is quite tall for the division at 5'11" but doesn't know how to use her size to her advantage and gets marked up quite a bit.

The Sikjitsu fighter has also lost a couple in a row (though both by split decision) but she has some wrestling skills and her opponent has none. Phillips can also bang with some power but will most likely ground Duke and rough her up en route to a judges nod.
WINNER-Elizabeth Phillips by Decision

Zak Cummings (17-4) -275 vs. Dominique Steele (13-5) +215

Steele is coming in on short notice with a 2 fight winning streak and once had a cup of tea with Bellator. Zak is a Missouri boy with wrestling skills, power in his hands, and is a large kid at 170. 

Cummings was on a 4 fight bounce until he met superstar "Gunni" Nelson and should roll in this one. Dominique will be retreating faster than Zak's hairline as Cummings who gets the stoppage.
WINNER-Zak Cummings by Rd.2 TKO


Main Card on FOX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 4:15 p.m. ET / 1:15 p.m. PT

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