January 2, 2016
MGM Grand Garden Arena
Las Vegas
Main Card on PPV:
Welterweight Champion Robbie Lawler (26-10) -115 vs. Carlos Condit (30-8) -115
Robbie Lawler stormed through 2014 and bested Rory
MacDonald in July '15 in an amazing and brutal contest. The "Ruthless" one has perfected his counter skills recently and power never dies. Rob hits big and hard though he lacks speed and sometimes takes rounds off.
The "Natural Born Killer" suffered a bad knee injury in '14 against Tyron Woodley and then rebounded in '15 by taking out Thiago Alves and receiving a surprising title shot. Since defeating Nick Diaz for the Interim title, Condit has shown mixed results going 3-2. Even so, the striking attack from Carlos is one of the more varied and impressive in all of MMA. And its not a small thing to take "heart" into consideration when considering the comeback ability and durability of "NBK." Carlos trains with the intelligent Jackson-Wink camp and always follows game plans. Condit can attack with any of the 8 points while countering or pressing the action. The small complaint would be a lack of takedown defense but threatening off his back Carlos can still submit fools.
The power advantage easily goes to the champ but he's not as active and relies on his power. Though the odds say even, MMAFO feels this is the exact type of fighter Lawler loses to. Carlos has a smarter fight IQ and more tools to accumulate points in a contest that is destined for the judges based upon both mens never-say-die attitudes. To be perfectly honest, we believe Lawler has over-achieved in recent years and the bloom is going to come off sooner rather than later. "NBK" is a proven warrior who can frustrate while pulling away in an entertaining beginning of 2016.
*Upset Pick WINNER-Carlos Condit by Decision
Stipe Miocic (13-2) -225 vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-10, 1) +175
Arlovski has turned back the hands of time winning his last 6 attempts and climbing back into Heavyweight contention. The "Pitbull" brought back the chin from near death against Travis Browne and delivered a brutal beating on the Hawaiian.
"Steepay" handed out one of the worst beatings of '15 against poor beloved Mark Hunt in May and possesses hard boxing, good, not great MMA wrestling, and toughness.
Sorry, as fun as it was, the Arlovski-train has got to derail and come back to reality at some point. Andrei has been through some doozies in his day and won't be able to stand up to all that Miocic can bring him in 15 minutes. Bet on the finish for Ohioan.
WINNER-Stipe Miocic by Rd.2 TKO
Lorenz Larkin (16-4) +195 vs. Albert Tumenov (16-2) -250
The "Monsoon" has looked reborn at Welterweight destroying his last two foes and looking impressive as Hell in both. Larkin is a lightning fast striker who has only picked up speed at 170 while gaining power.
"Einstein" has won his last 4 for Zuffa with crushing boxing power and a straightforward approach. The Russian has shown cardio issues in the past.
These guys are going to gun it out and Lorenz may hit 1st but he'll suffer in a brawl. Albert has the power to put Larkin away but more likely they slug it out until the final bell.
WINNER-Albert Tumenov by Decision
Diego Brandao (20-10) +170 vs. Brian Ortega (9-0) -210
You just can't bet on Brandao. Diego comes in all bombs and explosions but he's a moron in the cage with a questionable chin.
Ortega isn't going to be passive either opting to throw high risk moves at will but should be basing his game around his submission skills.
This is a coin flip between two crazy fighters. We have zero faith in Brandao at this point or ever in his career.
WINNER-Brian Ortega by Decision
Abel Trujillo (12-7) +110 vs. Tony Sims (12-3) -140
Trujillo beats women and should not be employed by the UFC.
Upset Pick WINNER-Abel Trujillo by Rd.1 TKO
Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
Michael McDonald (16-3) -550 vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5) +375
Mikey finally returns after a two year layoff to resume an exciting career that should result in a title eventually. McDonald is going to blow Masanori's doors off!
WINNER-Michael McDonald by Rd.1 TKO
Kyle Noke (22-7-1) -305 vs. Alex Morono (11-3) +235
A quick one month turnaround for the Aussie who is coming off a devastating KO win. Morono is filling in on late notice for Kelvin Gastelum and is going to be floored.
WINNER-Kyle Noke by Rd.2 TKO
Justine Kish (4-0) -270 vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4) +210
Kish is an undefeated prospect out of Black House gym. Justine comes lumbering forward with a lack of speed but a ton of power. Nina's not that great of a fighter.
WINNER-Justine Kish by Decision
Scott Holtzman (8-0) -165 vs. Drew Dober (15-7) +135
This is a prove yourself bout. Neither guy has moved the needle in our world.
WINNER-Scott Holtzman by Decision
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Dustin Poirier (18-4) +160 vs. Joe Duffy (14-1) -200
Injuries aside we finally get this intriguing fight between two stellar Lightweight prospects. Supposedly this was buried on the UFC Fight Pass Prelims as a thank you to the online supporters but still looks strange this far down on the card.
Anywho, the "People's Main Event" is going to be a blockbuster but Duffy is the real deal and MMAFO keeps predicting this guy will win the title. Poirier is a good fighter but he'll always come up short. Real talk.
WINNER-Joe Duffy by Rd.2 Submission
Joe Soto (15-4) -115 vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-1) -115
WINNER-Joe Soto by Decision
Sheldon Westcott (9-3-1) -165 vs. Edgar Garcia (14-4) +135
WINNER-Shelton Westcott by Decision
UFC 195 Start Times
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Preliminary Bouts on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Preliminary Bouts on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. / 3:30 p.m. PT
* When the odds are even, the challenger is the underdog.
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