UFC on Fox 17 Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2: Picks, Prognostications, & Odds

December 19, 2015

Amway Center

Orlando, Florida

Main Card on FOX:

Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos -190 (24-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (28-6,1) + 155 [Rematch]

These two warriors met before without the belt on the line in ’13 as the now champ won a clear decision. Since, RDA lost a decision to the always injured Khabib Nurmagomedov before running off a 4 fight winning streak including taking the gold from overrated Anthony Pettis last March. King’s MMA have Anjos running on all cylinders and has never looked more comfortable, or powerful, striking wise and his grappling is always good. 

“Cowboy” has won 8 straight since he loss to RDA honing his kickboxing skills and fighting as much as possible on as little notice as possible. Cerrone has been in title fights before and always fallen short. 

“Cowboy” is always game but he’s going to face the same problems that plagued him in the previous meeting. Donald starts slow, has trouble with RDA’s takedown attempts, and we believe fears the big moment. Sacrilege we know, and we hope we are wrong as Cerrone fans, but Anjos has the perfect skill set to thwart the “Cowboy” and make it a long rough fight.

WINNER-Rafael dos Anjos by Decision

Junior dos Santos (17-3) -250 vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14, 1) +195

This has been a fight in the making for years. Long ago “Ubereem” was calling JDS’s name and after all this time, the bout comes due. Overeem is out of his mind wanting this fight. JDS is a far superior striker and if he efforts against Cain Velasquez and Stipe Miocic taught us anything, “Cigano” has true heart and a strong chin. Alistair does not have a chin. The “Demolition Man” has been stopped with hands 9 goddamn times in his career (!) and isn’t the smartest fighter. JDS has better power, stamina, skills, oh hell, JDS is going to destroy Overeem with prejudice.

WINNER-Junior dos Santos By Rd.2 TKO

Michael Johnson (16-9) -400 vs. Nate Diaz (17-10) +325

The “People’s Main Event” of the weekend (what up Ariel Helwani)! The men already got into a scuffle after the weigh-ins in the lobby as Tamdan McCrory filmed the altercation. MMAFO cannot wait for this fight!

The 209er has lost 3 of 4 but it was to a murderer’s row the last of which is the current Lightweight Champion and headlining tonight’s card, Rafael dos Anjos. We all know the brothers Diaz are tough as hell, sometimes to a fault, but they always bring game. Nate actually looks like he’s been training hard as he came into the weigh-ins looking ripped and ornery as ever.

The “Menace” got jobbed by the judges last out against Beneil Dariush snapping a solid 4 fight run. Mike is a threatening striker from the Blackzilians who has enough wrestling to keep people honest.

Oh come on now, you think MMAFO is not picking Diaz? Have you been here before? We ride with Nate in what is destined to be a slobber knocker of a fight with lots of in cage trash talk and bravado. Its gonna be so fun. Nate works his better all around game and marks up MJ en route to a late stoppage.

Upset Pick WINNER-Nate Diaz by Rd.3 Submission

Randa Markos (5-2) -200 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0) +160

Ooh, this is gonna be a good one. The Canadian Tristar fighter is an underrated fighter who is game everywhere the fight could take place. Markos is a natural fighter with a strong right hand and ability to scramble out of grappling moments where she is weakest.

The undefeated Pole is making her UFC debut as a striker who also tries to avoid the ground. “KK” is good at getting back to her feet 

This will be close and highly contested but we like Markos to be smarter inside the fence winning at least 2 of 3 and continuing to gain much needed experience.

WINNER-Randa Markos by Decision

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

Charles Oliveira (20-5, 1) +145 vs. Myles Jury (15-1) -175

“Do Bronx” missed weight and had no reason as to why which is always trouble coming into a bout. It doesn’t help that Oliveira is coming off that never before seen throat injury in the cage but Charles is a Jiu-Jitsu ace who is vicious standing and always looking to take things down no matter the position.

Jury has switched from the Alliance Camp to the Power MMA camp while making his debut here at Featherweight. Myles is a competent boxer but has never shown any fantastic ability that was thrust upon him coming off TUF 15. The 27 year old still finds ways to get things done being pretty skilled everywhere but not overwhelming. 

If not for the injury and missing weight problems, we’d be picking Oliveira with confidence. Things being how they are, we'll stay with "Do Bronx" with a little trepidation. Charles still has far more ways to win and we've just never seen the "talent" in "Fury."

Upset Pick WINNER-Charles Oliveira by Decision

C.B. Dollaway (15-7) -450 vs. Nate Marquardt (33-15-2) +325

Joe’s boy, the feared “Doberman,” is back after dropping his last 2 fights to Michael Bisping and Lyoto Machida after dreams of grandeur. “Cber" is a part-time striker and mainly a wrestler with the speed of a paraplegic sloth.

Marquardt is a shell of his former self. It seems like the TRT stint ruined the end of his career as he slimes in on a 1-5 run and was brutally stopped in 3 of those losses. Nate the “So-So” is every bit of 36 and is just cashing checks at this point.

Oh this is going to be ugly. You have to side with Dollaway here as he could out-walk Nate around the cage punching at times, and waiting to get the takedown for the dry hump.

WINNER-CB Dollaway by Decision

Sarah Kaufman (17-3) -155 vs. Valentina Shevchenko (9-1) +125

“Sweet” Sarah has trouble booking opponents but has been at the most elite level of women’s Bantamweight for the last 6 years! Kaufman is a technical striker with will power though not a ton of speed or variance to her offense.

The “Bullet” has won 4 in a row and was in training camp though she is taking this fight on short notice. The Peruvian is nasty in the clinch with knees and prefers to counter.

Sarah likes to press opponents against the cage for dirty boxing but that is a bad idea here. Kaufman will need all of her wrist fighting skills and stamina to grind through a tough slog against a very tough newcomer. We just believe Valentia will be must faster and fluid which will be the difference here.

Upset Pick WINNER-Valentia Shevchenko by Decision

Josh Samman (12-2) -210 vs. Tamdan McCrory (13-3) +170

Who knew Samman was such a cool dude? Josh has really upped his stock this year winning 4 in a row and becoming a good writer over at Bloody Elbow.com and UFC.com. Samman is a TUF 17 grad and has earned the stoppage in 11 of his 12 career wins and is a capable striker with newly minted kicks in his arsenal.

The “Barncat” left a title fight on the table at Bellator to return to the UFC after a 5 year semi-retirement. Tamdan is as tenacious as his nickname and will happily engage in a brawl.

McCrory has sneaky power but Samman has better technique and should hold a notable power advantage. Josh wins this but not without having to work for it.

WINNER-Josh Samman by Decision

Nik Lentz (25-7-2) -135 vs. Danny Castillo (17-9) +105

This is a grinder’s war. “Last Call” is about as hard a worker as they come but he’s now 36 and has lost his last 3 bouts. Dan is basically pretty good striking, but quite slow and prefers to lay in guard for the full 15.

Lentz has lost 2 of his last 3 but they were to Chad Mendes and Charles Oliveira. The “Carney” is quite aggressive and doesn’t stop attacking. Nik is just too tough for most men and wins this on the canvas in a long, drawn out fight.

* Castillo made weight on his 2nd attempt and how odd is it to see Lentz with a whole new look trying to be interesting?

WINNER-Nik Lentz by Decision

Cole Miller (21-9) +100 vs. Jim Alers (13-2) -120

Alers had won 9 straight until he faced Chas Skelly last and was blasted out in controversial fashion with a mere second left on the clock. Even so, the “Beast” is primarily a grappler who allows himself to get hit far too often.d

Miller, has been quite inactive in the last few years only fighting twice for a 1-1 record. ATT’s “Magrinho” is also a submission fighter who has some nasty elbows and is aggressive looking for the finish. 

Cole’s long arms should put a stiff jab in Jim’s face and even if on his back, Miller can be dangerous. Alers will be there for the duration but Cole is angrier and craftier.

Upset Pick WINNER-Cole Miller by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Leon Edwards (10-2) +230 vs. Kamaru Usman (6-1) -300

The Brit is 2-1 for Zuffa and is a technique driven kickboxer with some grappling skills. Leon does tend to be passive.

The Blackzilian will have strength on Edwards and is riding a 5 fight winning streak. Kamaru can get a good scramble going and grappling is the game.

Edwards should have the modus operandi to win here standing, but we think Usman just bull rushes forward getting the takedown and if he can get the proper top position, he can deliver serious G&P and at least take this on points.

Upset Pick WINNER-Kamaru Usman by Decision 

Hader Hassan (6-2) +105 vs. Vicente Luque (7-5-1) -135 [Rematch (sort of)]

Hassan won the previous meeting during TUF 21 in a very close match that is considered “amateur.” Neither man means a whole lot for the future but Vicente should be able to control this on the ground getting a bit of vengeance that nobody else cares about.

WINNER-Vicente Luque by Decision

Luiz Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (8-1) +110 vs. Francis Ngannou (5-1) -140

“KLB” is the grappler in this bout for newly minted UFC Heavyweights. Luiz has won 6 straight and 4 by finish.

The Frenchman is a more natural athlete but far greener as well. 

It’s debuting Heavies. Flip a coin. Ngannou is absolutely massive btw.

WINNER-Francis Ngannou by Rd.1 TKO

UFC on FOX 17 Start Times:
Main Card on FOX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT

Art by DOMENICO NEZITI