Wednesday, May 11, 2016

UFC 198 Werdum vs. Miocic: Picks & Prognostications


May 14, 2016
Arena da Baixada
Curitiba, Brazil
Main Card on PPV:
Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1) vs. #3 Stipe Miocic (14-2)

"Vai Cavalo" is back after keeping with Heavyweight tradition and not defending the belt for some 11 months. Its annoying UFC whad up? Anywho, Werdum has won 6 fights in a row including dismantling "Sea Level" Cain Velasquez and still trains with the beloved sage Rafael Cordeiro over at King's MMA. Fabricio will have the hometown crowd in his corner and there is no doubt the 38 year old has been improving with great clinch knees, boxing, and is always one of the very best Jiu-Jitsu players ever in the big boy division.


"Steepay" has won 2 in a row (really 6 because he should have got the judges nod against Junior dos Santos way back at the end of '14) sporting a strong style boxing game, staunch takedown defense, and amateur wrestling skills should he ever use them. 


Both of these men are hell to finish and we fully expect this to be a gritty, in the trenches affair. Get out your wallets because MMAFO is predicting an Upset and a changing of the guard. Neither man has a lot of weaknesses but father time is coming after Werdum and we've been rather high on Miocic for quite some time and his time is now! If Fabricio wants to get in close for his attack (which he does) he'll be in range for some power shots the likes of which will rock his world. Werdum is going to struggle with the takedown (as always) and dropping to his back and calling on his foe has never worked. This gives Stipe the time necessary to become comfortable in the pocket or to find the range from distance to mess the Brazilian up. Miocic has the chance to damage Fabricio over 25 minutes while its going to be hard for Werdum to inflict anything of note on the younger, hungrier challenger who avoids the ground like the plague. The Croatian American gains gold and if the MMA Gods are kind, will actually defend the belt this very year.


Upset Pick WINNER-Stipe Miocic by Rd.4 TKO




#4 Ronaldo Souza (22-4) vs. #9 Vitor Belfort (25-11)


Fuuuuuuuck you Vitor Belfort! Has there ever been a more dishonest and delusional fighter in the MMA game? This guy is a garbage human being with the haircut of a white trash three year old. He is nothing without his steroids and TRT. Fuck you ya cheating liar.


"Jacare" you have but one job this evening. Go out there and embarrass this fool so badly that we never have to see or hear from him again. Souza can do it too. Ronaldo is light years ahead of Belfort on the ground and he's not going to play around on the feet with a guy potentially jacked up on PEDs. For the record, "Jacare" also beat another habitual cheater in Yoel Romero last out though the 3 blind mice didn't see it way. 


Romero and Belfort should hold hands and jump off of a building and stop bothering everybody.


WINNER-Ronaldo Souza by Rd.2 Submission


#8 Anderson Silva (33-7, 1) vs. Uriah Hall (12-6)


Aw, goddamn. You knew this card was too damn good to completely hold together and the "Spider" went down to an emergency surgery for an acute cholecystitis of the gallbladder. Shame. We were excited about this one. Silva will be able to go back to work in 6 weeks. Hall has opted to bow out of the card and we can't blame him for that.


#1 Cristiane Justino (15-1, 1) vs. Leslie Smith (8-6-1)


Oh dear God "Femborg" is coming to the UFC. Run Leslie! Run far and fast. Smith has courage for days but she gonna get messed up here. Best of luck.


WINNER-Cristiane Justino by Rd.1 TKO


Mauricio Rua (23-10) vs. Corey Anderson (8-1)


We're actually not on this "you should retire 'Shogun'" kick. The guy has only been (T)KO'd 4 times in his long career and is only 34. Sure he's been in a lot of wars but its not that the veteran is fragile, he's just not that good of a fighter anymore likely due to the myriad of injuries he's sustained. Rua peaked a long, long time ago, and just never kept up with the game or kept in shape. 


To be clear, we're not saying "Shogun" is a bad fighter. He had a nice career and won some big fights, but since losing the belt to Jon Jones, he's gone 4-5 while not looking very good. Rua just isn't an elite fighter anymore. It was a short window for him and there's nothing wrong with that as most MMA fighters will never reach the heights he once did. The fact remains though, that Mauricio just has not evolved and facing a younger, hungrier challenger is the opposite of what he needs if he wants to continue fighting. MMAFO would much prefer he be cut and go to Bellator where he could still be a "showcase" and fight at a more proper level.


"Rampage 2.0" looks better each time out. Anderson comes in with smart game plans and follows them without taking dumb risks. We really like his slow rise though the ranks as he takes the proper steps for a young green fighter. Each time out he grows and gains much needed experience. There's a lot to like about Anderson whether it be his wrestling, good takedown defense, or his improving boxing. 


Anderson is going to employ his game and control "Shogun" to the judges nod without much resistance.


WINNER-Corey Anderson by Decision
Prelims on FS1:
#5 Demian Maia (22-6) vs. #9 Matt Brown (20-13)

This bout isn't getting the love it deserves on such a stacked card but it could easily steal the show. Both men are killers in the 170's and ready to make a run for the title or descend into "gatekeeper" status.


Maia absolutely schooled Gunnar Nelson last December and has won 4 in a row. Nobody, nobody, has better MMA Jiu-Jitsu and Demian has been working on his striking though most of the time he doesn't even need it. Maia is also a thinking mans fighter and intelligent dude so don't expect him to be surprised by anything at age 38.


Brown has done nothing short of exceeding all expectations in his UFC career brawling his way to one of the most exciting styles today. Everyone loves how this guy scraps out there but we'd be remiss if we didn't mention his Achilles heel is that Matt has been submitted 9 f-ing times in his pro career! Yeesh.


Matty can crush and is tough as he is ugly (please don't kill us for that) but his giant weakness almost appears on cue. Brown has yet to make the step to the elite level of the division while Maia has been there throughout his career and can exploit that flaw in Matt's game. Demian is going to take some rough shots getting Brown to the ground but the Brazilian has a strong beard and once grounded, its tap or snap time.


WINNER-Demian Maia by Rd.2 Submission


Warlley Alves (10-0) vs. Bryan Barberena (11-3)


The hype train killer, Bryan "I Embarrassed Sage Northcutt" Barberena, returns to capitalize on his recent fame. "Bam Bam 2" has been rolling in the last 4 years with workman like efforts instilled in him by the MMA Lab.


The X-Gym fighter is a Jiu-Jitsu finisher who is coming along nicely with his career at 25. Alves has defeated Alan Jouban, Nordine Taleb, and Colby Covington in succession which is quite impressive. Warlley has been building his resume on young talent, much like himself, and has racked up 4 wins on the Zuffa roster.


We appreciate Bryan halting the Northcutt express for a short time at least, but now he's facing a true prospect. Barberena is going to want to do some of his G&P here but he can't. Alves will hit him with some big power on the feet before getting this to the canvas for the tap.


WINNER-Warlley Alves by Rd.2 Submission


Thiago Santos (12-3) vs. Nate Marquardt (34-15-2)


Okay, Nate got a knockout last December but that was against the continual disaster that is CB Dollaway. In his return to the UFC, Marquardt has gone 2-4 and was stopped three of those times. The years have worn badly on "The Great" who has become rickety at 37 as the sport has passed him by.


"Marreta" is the polar opposite of Nate on the upswing of his career. Santos battered then undefeated prospect Elias Theodorou last out to run his win streak to 3. Thiago is a strong striker and a pretty sturdy guy. 


Nope, not buying it. Nate is not "back" and we fully expect him to crumble against anyone not 400 years old. Santos should touch Marquardt up at will if'n he doesn't stop the old TRT cheater altogether.


WINNER-Thiago Santos by Decision


John Lineker (26-7) vs. Rob Font (12-1)


Should Lineker make the Bantamweight limit for a 2nd time in a row (which would be a small miracle) and win this bout, he's likely to sneak into the Top 10 at his new division. John has some of the most murderous power for the lil' guys and enjoys getting after it in wild fashion.


Sityodtong's Font has won 11 in a row emerging as a pretty decent Boston fighter.


Lineker makes weight and this fight is his for the taking. Should he miss weight again for 85th time in his career, he should be cut. We're long past being annoyed with how unprofessional this guy is and he either abides by the rules or goes away.


WINNER-John Lineker by Rd.2 TKO
Prelims on Fight Pass:
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-3)

For Christ's sake "Lil Nog" what are you trying to prove? You've had a nice career but haven't been relevant in 10 years. 


Here's what happens. "Durkin" takes Nogueira down repeatedly while trying to get Antonio pregnant (whad up Matt Mitrione!) over 15 dreadful minutes. Then Rogerio retires in Brazil.


WINNER-Patrick Cummins by Decision


Francisco Trinaldo (19-4) vs. Yancy Medeiros (12-3, 1)


"Massaranduba" has found his groove in the UFC winning his last 5 bouts and gaining a little endurance to go along with his muscle mass. When combined he's a difficult out though he's not much of a finisher anymore at age 37.


Yancy has a lot of heart and toughness and loves to get down standing up.


The "Brazilian Bulldozer" is just that bullying opponents around the cage. Medeiros can make it hard for anyone when he fights but he doesn't have the technical skills to contend with Trinaldo unless the Brazilian is having an off night.


WINNER-Francisco Trinaldo by Decision


Sergio Moraes (10-2) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1)


The "Panther" is a super nice guy and you just want to give him a hug when he comes to the cage smiling like he does. Moraes is beloved in his home country and uses his long limbs primarily to pretzel fools into submission positions.


"Tarzan" is a young fella at 22 who can play the grappling game but is an awful striker. Chagas is making his Zuffa debut and has not faced any competition of note on his way to the dance.


Sergio is just better any place this fight goes and should win relatively easy.


WINNER-Sergio Moraes by Rd.3 Submission


Renato Carneiro (9-0-1) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3)


This is a close one between two young up and comers. Carneiro has the size advantage but Tukhugov is the more technical striker. Both can do a bit of everything and it will be interesting to see who can impose their will and begin to create a bit of buzz for their young career. It's a coin-flip match but we slightly favor...


WINNER-Renato Carneiro by Decision
UFC 198 Start Times
Main Card on Pay-Per-View:
 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Preliminary Card on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Preliminary Card on UFC Fight Pass: 6:15 p.m. ET / 3:15 p.m. PT

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