UFC 200 Cormier vs. Jones 2: Picks & Prognostications, & Odds

July 9, 2016

T-Mobile Arena

Las Vegas Nevada

Main Card on PPV:

Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier versus Jon Jones has been cancelled!

USADA notified the UFC that Jones FAILED his out-of-competition test from June 16th and will not be allowed to compete on the card! Excuses from Jon to follow soon.

Now the fight is....

#1 Daniel Cormier (17-1) vs. Anderson Silva (33-7) 

"DC" got his wish and in steps the GOAT on short, minuscule notice. Cormier seems quite happy at the opportunity but had a little bit of trouble making weight (he needed the towel) but he succeeded.

"The Spider" steps up two days notice with a tall order ahead of him. Though Silva is undefeated at Light Heavyweight, Andy is 0-3-1 in his last 4 appearances. Silva has not tasted victory since his last bout at 205 against Stephan Bonnar. "I'm here to challenge myself, and I think that I haven't trained in a few months, but I think that I'm in good condition to go in there and put on a good fighting."

Well, this is crazy. Silva is going to try and knock out Cormier quickly while Daniel is going to need to weather the storm and implement his wrestling game. Good look predicting this madness but we'll still role with "DC" who has trained unbelievably hard. However, as recent events have shown, anything can happen in MMA.

WINNER-Daniel Cormier by Decision?

Brock Lesnar (5-3) +140 vs. #8 Mark Hunt (12-10-1) -170

For the record, this bout is not as crazy as everyone is making it out to be. Lesnar has freak athlete skills, massive size, and power for days. Its also not like Hunt hasn't had his bizarre moments in the cage (ahem Sean "Big Sexy" McCorkle).

Anywho, Lesnar has been gone 5 years which is a looong time for any professional sport. Diverticulitis stole some potential from Brock and it stuck in his colon. You cannot deny that this guy has some of the most ridiculous power ever at Heavyweight and some real amateur wrestling skills. His double-leg shot can put a man straight through the Octagon fence.

"Hunto" has been a man possessed every since this bout was announced. Mark got the head's up from the UFC long before this bout was official and has been training accordingly. The "Super Samoan" has been posting pics of himself looking to be in the best shape of his life. Hunt's power is the stuff of legend and yet another walk off punch is never out of the question. We even favor Hunt's cardio because of how he's been training, Brock is rusty and will have that "adrenaline dump," while Mark is cool as a cucumber.

Mark knows something very important about this bout. This is the biggest moment of his career. "Hunto" has trained his whole life for this moment and won't let it slip by. Mark should be taken down and that will be a scary moment, but he'll have enough moments on the feet to catch Brock in the face and the guy doesn't react to punches well. Hunt's gonna find that fear button on Brock and put him down with a feel good win for the well traveled veteran.

WINNER-Mark Hunt by Rd.2 KO

Women's Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate (18-5) -250 vs. #4 Amanda Nunes (12-4) +195

"Cupcake" achieved the impossible dream upsetting the "Ronda Killer" Holly Holm to become the champ and upping her win streak to 5. Tate is definitely a wrestler 1st but she has improved her striking though she gets hit far too often. What can't be debated is Miesha's heart and durability. This woman does not quit and can take a beating that would make Ike Turner proud.

The "Lioness" is a big time hitter... and that's about it. Nunes gasses in almost every fight (even those that end in the initial round) and ATT hasn't changed that fact.

Miesha just has to weather the early storm and then initiate the game plan that wears down her opponent to make her bend to her will. Getting this fight to the canvas is important for Tate but avoiding strikes and keeping a fast pace is paramount as well. Tate always manages to get herself into some form of trouble but she'll gut things out and retain her crown to set up a rematch with either Holly Holm or Ronda Rousey for $$$.

* Miesha struggled up until the last moment to make weight but pulled it out with the help of the towel (the luckiest inanimate object on Earth). Let's hope her recovery goes well before fight time.

WINNER-Miesha Tate by Decision

Featherweight Interim Title Fight

#2 Jose Aldo (25-2) -105 vs. #3 Frankie Edgar (20-4-1) -125

Before Conor McGregor came along, we were touting Jose Aldo as at the best Pound4Pound fighter of the day. So why are we having so much trouble believing in him against a man he already beat. Granted he lost in 0:13, but he lost in 0:13. What we are saying is it could just have been a freak thing as Conor was deep in his head. A single loss for a guy who reigned for 10 years with incredible leg kicks, superior striking, and great stand up defense that few talk about. Could be that whole KO loss thing. 

MMA's "Answer" has just been putting in work on a 5 fight tear since losing to, Mr. Aldo. It just feels like Jose has become more brittle (injury after injury) while Frankie has been getting stronger and better as a fighter which is a scary thing considering how good he was to begin with. 

We don't know if the knockout loss has ruined Jose mentally but we know Frankie is near unbreakable. Edgar will no doubt push the pace as is his want, but people seem to forget that is when Aldo cruises. Jose is a counter machine and this has to be the hardest bout to pick on the card. We just don't feel like the former Pound4Pound king is done quite yet. He is mentally safe against good guy Frankie and should get a little WEC version brutal and take it back old school.

* Pick subject to change. :)

Upset Pick WINNER-Jose Aldo by Decision

#4 Cain Velasquez (13-2) -305 vs. #9 Travis Browne (18-3-1) +235

Remember 12 years ago when Cain was feared and owned the Heavyweight division? No? That's because his run is overrated. Velasquez has successfully held the strap for 3 fights and not in a row. He's a wrestling juggernaut but his chin is suspect and we saw a new wrinkle in the game against Fabricio Werdum when he came in overconfident and was dubbed "Sea Level" Cain after the fact. Coupled with the fact this guy gets injured in a clip that would make Domick Cruz proud and we have us some questions.

"Eye Poker" Browne flat out cheated against our boy Matt Mitrione last out and that cannot be called a legit win. Even so, Ronda's boy has equated himself nicely to the UFC with 9-3 record (one loss was when he pulled a hamstring against Antonio Silva). "Hapa" is actually a great boxer (rare at this weight) and uses his long legs well to keep people at bay though that could be dangerous against this good wrestler. Travy will have a crazy size advantage that will become evident at the weigh-ins.

Despite all of these things, Cain should win this thing if he's a shell of his former self. Big hitters are the type of opponent Velasquez wrecks and we believe he's healthy and thus he's got another run in him.

WINNER-Cain Velasquez by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:

PENA's a hot mess.

#5 Cat Zingano (9-1) -170 vs. #8 Julianna Peña (7-2) +140

The "Alpha" Cat returns from a heartbreaking list of injuries and personal problems for which we can only give our condolences. Zingano has soldiered on and settled down at the Alliance camp. Cat is super-powerful fighter with cantankerous knees and punches. She is sturdy as they come but we'd be remiss if we didn't point out she has rarely followed a coherent game plan and absolutely shit the bed against Ronda Rousey in one of the most embarrassing performances of all time.

Hey Pena made it without another arrest for drunkenly attacking bar workers after hours because she is a head case. Congrats you ill tempered idiot. Anywho, Julie is a good grappler who tends to get into brawls and cuts a fast pace. 

Pena gets hit a lot and thinks she's the shit which will be her downfall. Cat gonna oblige and whoop dat ass and more power to her. Zingano has been through a lot but has put in mad work for this camp. Time to run game. 

WINNER-Cat Zingano by Rd.3 TKO

Even as a child KELVIN liked to wrestle.

#7 Johny Hendricks (17-4) -135 vs. Kelvin Gastelum (11-2) +105

Both guys have bombs in their hands. Both guys are good grapplers. Both guys are stocky. Is the real battle here whether or not these historically tubby bitches actually make weight? Perhaps but you can't deny that Hendricks has been to the mountain top while Gastelum has proven to come up short for big fights. We like Johny's striking ability better anyway and though he may struggle if put on his back for moments, most of the time he'll be winning a boxing match.

* Well, we made fun of Kelvin's baby picture but it was Johny who missed weight even after shaving his beard. We are changing our pick as Johny looked just awful in failing to make weight yet again!

Upset Pick WINNER-Kelvin Gastelum by Decision

#2 TJ Dillashaw (12-3) -400 vs. Raphael Assuncao (23-4) +300 [Rematch]

TJ went 4-1 since he lost to Assuncao back in '13 but a lot has happened in his life. Dilly changed camps in an acrimonious split with Team Alpha Male, won and lost the Bantamweight title, and was denied a rematch with "Dancing" Dominick Cruz. TJ is a worker though and he'll come in fully prepared and hungry to climb back to the belt as well as avenging his loss to the Brazilian.

Assuncao was on a 7 fight winning streak and had beaten some elite fighters when injuries struck and benched him for almost two years! Raphael is very well rounded but his game is cemented in the grappling acumen. Raph has decent striking no real power in his hands.

Nearly two years gone is a long stretch for anyone to come in a fight a motivated "Killashaw." TJ is on point and has advanced his MMA game while Assuncao has become a question mark. We side with the proven and in fight shape TJ.

WINNER-TJ Dillashaw by Decision

Sage Northcutt (7-1) -335 vs. Enrique Marin (8-3) +255

Geez, the annoyance that is "Super" Sage. Yes the UFC is feeding him another win and everyone knows it so lets just move on.

WINNER-Sage Northcutt by Rd.2 TKO

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Diego Sanchez (26-8) -115 vs. Joe Lauzon (25-11) -115

There are few MMA fighters MMAFO despises more than Diego "Dirty" Sanchez. The guy is simply an idiot and for some reason has been given many undeserved "gifts" from judges in his long, irritating career. This fool has cardio for days but his striking is rudimentary and he has forgotten all of his wrestling skills.

"J-Lau" is a beloved "Fight Night Bonus" machine who always brings game even if he doesn't get the win. Lauzon is a submission specialist and has long limbs for entangling enemies.

MMA Gods forgive us but we're predicting a "Nightmare" here. Lauzon has awful takedown defense, has been finished 7 times, gets hit a ton, and sucks against southpaws. Diego doesn't have much left but he is durable and throws a lot of volume which seems to impress the 3 blind mice whether he lands em or not.

WINNER-Diego Sanchez by Decision

#5 Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2) -280 vs. Thiago Santos (13-3) +220

"Sweet Sassy Mousasi" hasn't taken the UFC by storm as we had hoped, but his 5-3 record against top tier competition is respectable. What is the most crazy aspect of Gegard's career is that he has never trained with an elite camp and has actually learned his ground game from YouTube (true story). If the "Dreamcatcher" can get his shit together and train 100% for his fights, he's a title contender.

Santos is on a 4 fight bounce and is a good boxer but nothing to write home about.

If Mousasi brings his game he should have little trouble here. Gegard is a better boxer than Santos (likely the entire 185 division) and is a much more adept grappler. Mousasi is a bit of a head case though and you never know just what you are gonna get. But if anyone shows up to UFC 200 without their "A" game then they deserve to lose. 

WINNER-Gegard Mousasi by Decision

Jim Miller (25-8, 1) -230 vs. Takanori Gomi (35-11, 1) +180

The middle aged "Fireball Kid" is a longtime MMAFO favorite from back in the Pride Bushido days. Gomi has always been a fastball bomber but he simply arrived too late in his career to be a force in the UFC. Takanori has a 4-6 Zuffa record and his improved his takedown defense and cardio, but hasn't evolved much in any real notable way.

Miller is the consummate blue collar work horse of the Lightweight division. In the last two years, Jim has fallen off the 155 pedestal going 2-4 and really looking aged in a hurry. Miller is a solid fighter everywhere and his standing elbows are vicious, but he has slowed dreadfully.

So, a couple old before their time fighters meet to simply try and remain employed at the highest level. Times are tough but few are tougher than Jimmy. Expect Miller to avoid the bombs thrown his way and abuse Gomi on the ground for a bittersweet victory in our teary eyes.

WINNER-Jim Miller by Rd.2 Submission

UFC 200 Start Times

Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT