Friday, August 12, 2016

UFC 202 Diaz vs. McGregor 2: Picks, Prognostications + Odds

Great art by @bosslogic on Twitter
August 20, 2016
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada

Main Card on PPV:
Nate Diaz (20-10) +105 vs. Conor McGregor (19-3) -125 [Rematch]

March 5th we got one of the most fun and spectacular dream bouts of all time! And now, just over 4 months later, and we get to do the damn thing again. Run it back as 209's favorite son meets "Mystic" Mac with both at the most important moments in their respective careers. Diaz has ascended to new heights after ninja-ing all over McGregor who now has to reclaim his aura of invincibility while continuing to take the game to new heights.

Nate "Dogg" walked in on 10 days notice and changed his life forever with an 8 minute magnum opus against Conor, but Diaz got back to form last December destroying Michael Johnson and the old school shit talking bitch slapping motherfucker was back! Boxing on point. Cardio true. "Fuck you I'll die before I let you win," attitude. Nate may have finally gotten some shine but appearances on Conan O'Brien and a big payday haven't changed mindset. 

Conor for his part was already plotting his triumphant return mere hours after his epic defeat. In the dark corner of a bar, McGregor and Coach John Kavanagh were detailing the new way practice would be run. New import was placed upon structure in training and preparing for a 5 round war as opposed to throwing everything at Diaz early looking for the takeout. When "Mystic" Mac is in camp he is "obsessed" with improving every facet of his game. The rematch had to be made at the same weight of 170 lbs. with McGregor intent on fixing his mistakes and proving everyone wrong.

Both men are coming into this with full training camps and knowing who their opponent was to be the entire way. There don't seem to be any injuries and the competitive war between these men was immediately picked up with an intense and violent press conference. Bottles and cans were thrown and the UFC were extremely lucky no fighter was cut or otherwise injured not to mention any fans in attendance. The stakes are at an all time high.

MMAFO rides with Nathan Diaz and that has never wavered. We picked the "Stockton Samurai" to get the life-changing Upset win against Conor last out but the situation has changed. Now it's McGregor with his back against the wall and all the pressure on him. Another loss could be catastrophic to a career that seemed unstoppable at the beginning of the year. Now Conor knows taking out a Diaz brother is near impossible and if you were watching the 1st round of their initial meeting, it was McGregor landing pinpoint accurate power strikes at will. Then he gassed out playing around with his diet and underestimating the amount of damage Nate can endure just as he warming up. As mentioned, Conor will employ a different plan and his accurate SBG coach is even calling for a 4th round finish. We see this going the full 25 with neither man willing to give and inch while throwing until they are both burger. Its going to be hard to take a decision away from McGregor who will be showing a more varied style of offense and looking steadier while showing defense. Don't forget that Diaz brothers allow a beating which is impressive but doesn't translate well on the scorecards. Conor wins the rematch but there is a future trilogy bout that we cannot wait to see. This will be close, brutal, and the best of what MMA is today for 25 minutes.

WINNER-Conor McGregor by Decision

Anthony Johnson (21-5) -190 vs. Glover Teixeira (25-4) +165

Both Light Heavyweights are on the cusp of another title shot should they win here. Johnson is 11-1 in his recent path of destruction stumbling solely against UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Daniel Cormier." Tony's power advantage is almost unfair and his takedown defense is impenetrable. 

Glover has been similarly impressive losing only two while finishing his last 5 wins emphatically. Teixeira has good hands but getting the takedown is a must and then he can work his powerful top game to the win.

The Brazilian does have the style to frustrate Johnson but we simply feel like "Rumble" hurts Glover before he can even get rolling. Anthony Johnson is a scary man.

WINNER-Anthony Johnson by Rd.1 TKO

Rick Story (19-8) +145 vs. Donald Cerrone (30-7, 1) -165


This has good old fashioned slobber knocker written all over it. The "Cowboy" is back again continuing his experiment at Welterweight having gone 2-0 so far.

Ricky returned from a debilitating neck injury to Upset Tarec Saffiedine in a dominant May performance. The guy is gritty tough and delivers body shots with concussive force. More on that in a bit.

These two gun slingers are going to thrown down in an old fashioned donnybrook that the fans love. Neither of these cats want anything but a war so it'll be fun at the least. Cerrone has better technique everywhere but he does have a weakness Story can exploit. "Cowboy" crumbles against good body shots and Rick attacks the body with a ferocity few possess. Maybe we're way off here, but we thinks Story is primed for a big Upset by catching Donald slipping a bit in playing around too long at Welterweight and against a name he's probably not taking too seriously.

Upset Pick-Rick Story by Rd.3 TKO

Hyun Gyu Lim (13-5-1) -270 vs. Mike Perry (6-0) +230


KTT's "Ace" has our full attention. Lim has garnered respect in a grueling loss to Tarec Saffiedine in January of '14 and showed heart against the ever improving Neil Magny in May of '15. Hyun is a good striker who prefers to get into melees rather than competitions.

The undefeated prospect is only 24 years of age and has stopped every single man he's faced.

Gut feeling here. Lim gives Perry a boxing match and pays for it.

Upset Pick WINNER-Mike Perry by Rd.2 TKO

* Did you see the ultimo-douche Perry at the weigh-ins? 

Tim Means (25-7-1) -440 vs. Sabah Homasi (11-5) +350
The "Dirty Bird" returns from suspension and lets hope he's pissing clean because he is a guy we like to see fight. For the record and let's get this out of the way right now...




1. fighters are responsible for what they put in their bodies.
2. the supplement community is known for tainted products as they are not regulated.
3. fighters are still responsible for what goes into your body and knowing full well you are gambling when taking said supplements.
4. tainted supplements are NOT an excuse for failing PEDs.
5. We're not attacking Tim here, but this reason/excuse for failing a drug test needs to be put to bed. Means is hardly the only one who has done this (Jon Jones, Yoel Romero, Chad Mendes) but it needs to stop.

Anywho, Timmay returns with his standing elbow game designed to murder you.

Sabah (bad ass name) is on a 3 fight bounce and making his debut for the promotion. Homasi fights out of Florida's section of ATT who is a clinch fighter as well which is bad for him this evening.

Means is going to fuck this guy up out of frustration from his suspension, being forced to get a 9-5 job, and because he enjoys it. 

WINNER-Tim Means by Rd.3 TKO

Prelims on FOX Sports 1:
Cody Garbrandt (9-0) -600 vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2) +450

Cody getting "No Love" being placed on the prelims, being denied a title shot after knocking out surging Thomas Almeida, and then drawing always tough out veteran "The Miz." Garbrandt isn't one to complain though and he's prepared with Team Alpha Male and ready to work.

"The Miz" got back on track against George Roop but the beloved Takeya has seemingly hit a ceiling in the UFC. Nothing but love for the mad scrambler but his style is difficult to maintain over time and he's coming up against a head hunter supreme.

We always and fully expect a heroic effort from ultra-tough Mizugaki but Cody will have him out-gunned here for sure.

WINNER-Cody Garbrandt by Rd.2 TKO

Raquel Pennington (7-6) -260 vs. Elizabeth Phillips (5-3) +220


"Rocky" has started to find her grove finally putting together back-to-back wins and looking improved as well. Raquel is always tough as nails but the striking is getting tighter though the footwork is still an issue. 

Liz has been underwhelming in the UFC going 1-2 with her lone victory over Jessamyn Duke who couldn't fight her way out of a paper bag. If the WWE calls Jess, take it. 

This should be Pennington all day as she finally gets an easier opponent to pad the stats.

WINNER-Raquel Pennington by Decision

Artem Lobov (12-12, 1) -115 vs. Chris Avila (5-2) -105


Its Conor's training partner (Lobov) versus Nate's training partner (Avila). How exciting.

This makes sense two ways. Fans of McGregor and Diaz will enjoy the little story here, and Lobov is a good test for Avila. Artem has been as awful as predicted going 0-2 for the UFC with simply power punches that he's going to wing from Ireland. Avila is the up and comer and needs a test against a veteran especially one formally nicknamed "The Prospect killer."

Neither man is like their mentor no matter how badly they want to be (looking at you Chris). Avila is no Nate on the feet and in a slugfest he's going to get jaw jacked by the cocky Russian. 

WINNER-Artem Lobov by Rd.2 TKO

Randa Markos (6-3) -140 vs. Cortney Casey (5-3) +120


Markos has had a bit of trouble getting a run together but she's still quite green at 31. Improvements are coming including the striking and Randa is a tough customer and even more so with the frightening hair. 

"Cast Iron" is decent enough but she has also lost recently to Seo Hee Ham who should be at Atomweight. Casey needs to control this bout on the ground with top control.

This should really be Randa's fight to lose. Markos is more advanced overall and will employ a more active attack that will score better on the cards.

WINNER-Randa Markos by Decision
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:
Neil Magny (18-5) -140 vs. Lorenz Larkin (17-5, 1) +120

This is a stellar 170 fight. Both of these guys are in their primes and making noise at Welterweight. 

Magny turned into a title challenger out of limbo going 10-1 since '14 much to the surprise of everyone. The Grudge Training Team has really honed this cat into a well rounded fighter. Neil has long, long arms and uses them well to keep himself at a safe distance while racking up points. Magny will have a distinct grappling advantage.

The "Monsoon" struggled at 185 so he made the drop where he has been 3-1 while looking pretty damn good. Larkin is a volume striker with more power and willingness to exchange.

Lorenz definitely has the tools to pulls Magny's card but Neil has many more ways to win. LL needs to hurt Magny who has yet to be felled by a striker. Neil is a winner who finds the ways to win while Larkin can find frustration in bouts and decide to coast. It'll be close though.

WINNER-Neil Magny by Decision

Colby Covington (9-1) -345 vs. Max Griffin (12-2) +285


Colby's gonna go all boring on Max's ass.

WINNER-Colby Covington

Alberto Pereira (9-1) +150 vs. Marvin Vettori (10-2) -170


Both of these guys are young and full of promise and one has to take the step here. "Uda" has fought a tougher tier of opponent but Vettori is the "talk" right now. Dunno, just hoping for a good fight and flipping the coin.

WINNER-Marvin Vettori by Rd.3 TKO

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 Start Times
Main Card on Pay-Per-View: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
Prelims on Fox Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
Another great fan poster but we couldn't find the artist.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

FLOAT LIKE A BUTTERFLY , STING LIKE A BEE!! thats why its called shadow boxing.. you only see shadow.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUb6Ac5knGo

Anonymous said...

float like a butterfly stings when i pee