UFC on Fox 21 Condit vs. Maia: Picks, Prognostications, + Odds

August 27, 2016

Rogers Arena

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Main Card on FOX:

Demian Maia (23-6) +110 vs. Carlos Condit (30-9) -130

Thank your preferred fictional savior, "NBK" has un-retired. We haven't seen Carlos since January when he was robbed by 3 blind mice for the Welterweight title. A righteously bitter Condit took the loss hard but found some motivation in a bout against the surging Maia with the winner right in line for another title shot. 

"NBK" has some of the best and most vicious array of offense in the game. The guy can do it all with a gas tank that doesn't empty and he's a finishing machine. Carlos is also one of the toughest men to finish and yes, MMAFO has a mad man-crush on Condit. The guy has been one of our "boys" since 2007 so suck it.

Maia is perhaps the greatest Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in the MMA game today. If the Brazilian gets you to the mat you're basically fucked. Survival is about all you can hope for. Demian has abandoned his striking to focus on his grappling which leaves a chink in his armor. Some times the tank runs dry as well but he's still dangerous as hell and on a 5 fight winning streak.

We've got Condit all day here. Maia is very, very good, but he lacks offense standing which is where Carlos can shine. There is the issue of "NBK's" sometimes porous takedown defense but he is smart enough to know how to get back to his feet and avoid submissions. Condit is going to spend time busting up Maia on the feet while avoiding his normal clinch positions to evade the takedown. Carlos hurts and wears down Demian before finishing him with strikes while hitting 2nd gear.

WINNER-Carlos Condit by Rd.4 TKO

Anthony Pettis (18-5) -220 vs. Charles Oliveira (21-5, 1) +180

"Showtime" has fallen from grace like Satan from heaven. Pettis got his ass handed to him by Rafael dos Anjos and is on a devastating 3 fight losing streak. The ego of man is fragile and Tony has decided a drop to Featherweight will fix the wrongs. Good luck. Even so, the Rufusport fighter is an excellent creative striker and has to be highly motivated.

"Do Bronx" has won 5 of 6 but has battled some crazy injuries along the way. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter is also quite creative with his offense and is a nasty scrapper. 

This is a really fun fight that is not getting enough attention. Both of these men are talented veterans who are in their primes and looking to get gold. The weakness for Pettis has always been his grappling game where Oliveira excels. The rub, however, is that Charles tends to get hurt in contests while Tony is tough and inspired to get back to greatness. We thinks Pettis hurts Chuck at some point and amasses points before he can be entangled in a submission. Expect fireworks.

WINNER-Anthony Pettis by Decision

Paige VanZant (6-2) -235 vs. Bec Rawlings (7-4) +195

Good girl versus bad girl. Tits versus tats. Okay, that was a little untoward, but this is a fun match. We ain't got much love for Bec and her bitch attitude but she's a scrapper at the very least. Rawlings will bring attack but she's outgunned here. PVZ is a far better competitor with a relentless style and endurance for years. Paige is going to outwork and rough up Rawlings to get back on the winning side of things.

WINNER-Paige VanZant by Decision

Jim Miller (26-8) +135 vs. Joe Lauzon (26-11) 2 -155 [Rematch]

Two veteran Lightweights coming off exciting and quick wins clash in a rematch. This has barn burning slobber knocker written all over it. Both of these guys are exciting as hell but Miller is more durable and will likely hurt "J-Lau" when they clinch up with his patented standing elbows. We just like Jimmy to do more to actually try and win while Joe will take chances to try for the bonus.

Upset Pick WINNER-Jim Miller by Decision

Prelims on FOX:

Sam Alvey (27-8, 1) -225 vs. Kevin Casey (9-4-1, 1) +185

For God's sake will someone fire Casey already. The guy is straight garbage. At the very least Sam is fun. 

WINNER-Sam Alvey by Rd.1 KO

Enrique Barzola (12-2-1) +170 vs. Kyle Bochniak (6-1) -200

The card is about to get thin gents. Kyle "Crash" is a bit green while Barzola is an awkward as hell gatekeeper. Kyle could lose here but this is a test he must pass if he wants that "prospect" moniker.

Upset Pick WINNER-Enrique Barzola by Decision

Garreth McLellan (13-4) +225 vs. Alessio Di Chirico (9-1) -265

South Africa's "Soldier Boy" has the look of the fighter but lacks much of the skill to be a bad ass. 

The Italian suffered his 1st professional loss in his UFC debut and I can't say he impressed either.

Alessio is a better athlete but this is a throwaway bout so we're just not that excited about it.

WINNER-Alessio Di Chirico by Decision

Shane Campbell (12-5) -135 vs. Felipe Silva (7-0) +115

"Shaolin" Shane has gone a paltry 1-3 in the UFC. The Canadian kickboxer is a standard striker.

The Brazilian is making his big dance debut and has never been defeated to date.

The men could be pretty evenly matched here but the experience goes to Shane in bouts and Octagon experience. We take the safer pick.

WINNER-Shane Campbell by Decision

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass:

Chad Laprise (10-2) -310 vs. Thibault Gouti (11-2) +255

Canadian Chad has dropped a couple in a row but he's an average kickboxer with a decent all around game.

The Frenchman has lost both of his UFC efforts and he's basic. This will likely be the last we see of Thibault.

WINNER-Chad Laprise by Decision

Ryan Janes (8-1) +140 vs. Adam Hunter (7-1) -160

"Warhammer" bringing the crazy game to the UFC. Adam is a striking finisher with a kickass nickname. Call down the power of the Viking Gods!

Ryan will need to get this to the ground if he's going to survive and he's not going to survive.

WINNER-Adam Hunter by Rd.1 TKO

* This bout has been CANCELLED at the last minute due to a potential PED violation by Adam Hunter.

Jeremy Kennedy (8-0) -155 vs. Alex Ricci (10-3) +135

Ricci is coming in on very short notice to replace Josh Emmett. Both are making their debuts here and Mr. Kennedy is 9 years younger that his foe. Dunno don't care.

WINNER-Jeremy Kennedy by Decision

Ning Guangyou versus Marlon Vera is CANCELLED

UFC on FOX 21 Start Times:
Main Card on FOX: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT

Prelims on FS1: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT

Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT