November 5, 2016
Arena Ciudad de México
Mexico City, Mexico
This is a sneaky good card. Most MMA fans are overlooking this card in favor of the mega upcoming UFC 205 in New York, but there are some great fights here. We see a lot of Upsets as well which lends potential to make some money if'n you are so inclined to dabble in the sin. This also heralds the debut of Alexa Grasso who is "must watch" TV and not just because she is a beauty. The Main Event should be bonkers and besides the pointless TUF3 finale bout, the main card has nothing but intriguing close bouts! It's also free so tune in and enjoy some great MMA!
#2 Rafael dos Anjos (25-8) -145 vs. #4 Tony Ferguson (21-3) +125
Look, Ferguson has never been a smart man, but recently he's been going off the rails believing his own hype and thinking he's untouchable. Tony is spending too much time on social media battling perceived slights, and getting roasted when he tries to disrespect Michael Bisping. "El Cucuy" is an arrogant douche but you have to lend credit his 8 fight winning streak. Edson Barboza is the only contender on his resume and he struggled greatly against last minute debuting Lando Vannata while refusing to give his opponent any credit, but he is a talented striker who is willing to go for dangerous submissions and risk it all.
The former title holder was shocked, rocked, and TKO'd last July in a barrage of punching combinations from Eddie Alvarez. He may have lost his crown but Rafael has reinvented himself before, and now has the task of dusting himself off, and climbing that ladder yet again. RDA has become a powerful striker to go along with his stellar grappling prowess. It's interesting to note that dos Anjos left King's MMA for his own team and gym which is not usually a winning combination.
It's hard to pick the unlikable Ferguson based upon his attitude and willingness to take massive risks especially against a man as technical as dos Anjos. Tony pushes a good pace but then again so does Rafael. We keep thinking about the levels of competition here. Ferguson has not faced much in his long run while dos Anjos has a who's who of 155ers on his resume. We just don't believe in Tony and feel like this is the time when he makes a mistake and his rising star comes crashing down. Rafael takes the judges nod 3-2 in an exciting Main Event.
WINNER-Rafael dos Anjos by Decision
TUF 3 Latin America Finale
Martin Bravo (10-0) -105 vs. Claudio Puelles (7-1) -115
We cannot stress enough that we do not give a shit about any TUF show and their pointless finale matches. These "reality" shows were passé about 10 years ago and the UFC is still churning them out wasting our time with extended promotional packages for fighters nobody cares about dragging out our evening. Maybe these men will become good but this is not the way to introduce them by forcing them down our throats and pretending this is worthy of a Co-Main Event slot. Call us when you have accomplished something and deserve our attention.
Upset Pick WINNER-Martin Bravo by Decision?
Diego Sanchez (28-9) +230 vs. Marcin Held (22-4) -270
Diego is the TUF 1 alum who just won't die. This strange cat has a ton of wear on him after a long career and though 34 in life, he's around 55 in MMA years. Sanchez is always game for a war but he's left his wrestling skills far behind and instead relies on toughness and will. The clock is ticking on this guy who has gone 3-4 in the last 3 years (though the win over Ross Pearson was a travesty of justice so really he should be 2-5) not to mention he's an absolute moron.
The Pole is a longtime Bellator veteran who is getting his shot at the #1 MMA company. Marcin went 11-2 for the Viacom promotion and is a leg lock master though he can win with all the submission tricks and is a great grappler. Held doesn't have scary power standing but he is a capable boxer who can work in kicks as well.
Marcin is much more well versed in all of MMA than Diego who just wants to brawl though that does tend to impress idiot judges. Still, Held is far better, younger, and has much less wear on his body. We're sure Sanchez will be crazy and maybe even effective early, but the tide will turn and Marcin will use his entire arsenal to win on points to make a successful debut.
WINNER-Marcin Held by Decision
#8 Ricardo Lamas (16-5) -105 vs. #7 Charles Oliveira (21-6, 1) -115
When BJ Penn got injured Lamas opted for a fight sooner rather than later and acquired "Do Bronx." The book has been written on Ricardo and it's not going to change. The "Spanish Bully" is a punishing wrestler who can tussle with anyone. The rub is that he just can't beat the elite losing a title match against Jose Aldo, and falling short against perennial contenders Chad Mendes and Max Holloway.
Oliveira is a Jiu-Jitsu specialist with long limbs which he can use to attack from range with viciousness. The guy can work knees nicely in the clinch but if he gets you to the ground you are either going to tap or get controlled and hurt. Chuck has similarly struggled with the elite of the Featherweights though he was doing well against Max Holloway before a bizarre esophagus injury ended that evening.
This could be a very entertaining fight. Both men bring action but we like the skills of "Do Bronx" more. Charles won't be controlled on the mat by Ricardo and can touch him up as well. It's going to be close but Oliveira is trickier and has more to offer in a match we can't wait to see.
WINNER-Charles Oliveira by Decision
Upset Pick WINNER-Ricardo Lamas because fuck Chuck
* Update-Jesus fucking Christ Charles missed weight by a full damn weight class! Oliveira weighed in 10 lbs. over the limit and this is the 5th time he has failed to be a professional! This is absolutely unacceptable and major punishments should be given. Early reports say Lamas will accept the bout as he is undoubtedly hungry for a fight (and a paycheck) after the BJ Penn debacle and now this. Two bouts were lost on the Bellator 163 card because of missed weights as well. What is going on?
#8 Beneil Dariush (13-2) +115 vs. Rashid Magomedov (19-1) -135
We likes us some Dariush. The guy has got it all and has the great Kings MMA camp backing him up with the tutelage of master Rafael Cordeiro. Beneil is an amazing grappler with Jiu-Jitsu skills for days, and he has noticeably improved his boxing each time out. Dariush has good defense as well halting takedown attempts and avoiding strikes.
The Russian "Highlander" has only rattled off 12 wins in a row (4-0 in the UFC) and is a technical striker. Magomedov is never in the wrong place and uses a left kick to set up combinations very well. Rashid can wrestle but prefers to strike waiting for his opportunities.
The knock on Magomedov is that he is tentative at times and doesn't engage. That won't be an issue against the aggressive Dariush. Ben will be happy to bring the fight to him. Now, this bout could go either way but the percentages lean toward Dariush who has more experience against a higher level of opponent. This is the test to see just how good Rashid really is. It is quite possible that he passes this test but we just don't see it. An on point Beneil has more to offer and the greatest coach in MMA to plan his attack. We take Dariush in a potential "Fight of the Night" bout.
Upset Pick WINNER-Beniel Dariush by Decision
Alexa Grasso (8-0) -500 vs. Heather Jo Clark (7-5) +400
At 23 years of age, Grasso is getting her shot in the UFC. Alexa had 4 winning efforts in Invicta FC and is a capable kickboxer with ability and stamina. Heather is a test for the young prospect but one she is going to pass. Clark will need to grapple but if her past is any indication, she'll take a lot of punishment trying to do so. Alexa will run game here making a nice debut and quickly earning fans.
WINNER-Alexa Grasso by Decision
Erik Perez (16-6) -185 vs. Felipe Arantes (18-7-1, 2) +160
Arantes is a conundrum. He's a good wrestler, pretty aggressive, and has boxing skills, but he can't put them all together. The guy gets tunnel vision out there and just executes one facet of the game over and over again. Felipe is also known to play off his back too long trying for a finish, but losing the round in the process.
Perez has improved his footwork at Alliance MMA as one would suspect, and he's good not great but more reliable.
Arantes is just too good to keep shitting the bed. This is gonna be close and we'd by lying if we said we were confident in our pick, buuuuut, we like Felipe to use his aggression to win the judges nod if he doesn't sneak out a submission finish 1st.
Upset Pick WINNER-Felipe Arantes by Decision
Marco Beltran (8-3) +105 vs. Joe Soto -125
Original opponent Guido Cannetti was removed from the bout due to a PED violation from USADA and Soto steps in. Joey snapped a 3 fight skid in June defeating Chris Beal by RNC. Soto has been a bit of a disappointment since joining the UFC and he's trying to steal the lovely Joanna Calderwood's nickname which MMAFO does not appreciate! Joe is primarily a grappler but a pretty good one.
Beltran has over-achieved thus far in his UFC run winning all 3 of his outings. Marco is very durable and well rounded.
We smell the Upset yet again! Soto has been out muscled for most of his recent bouts and that won't change against Beltran. We also like Marco's ability to hurt Joe with strikes and feel this is one of those fighter on the way up (Beltran) meeting a fighter on the way down (Soto) kind of matches.
Upset Pick WINNER-Marco Beltran by Decision
Erick Montano (7-4) +140 vs. Max Griffin (12-3) -160
There's a whole lotta who gives a shit on this one but considering the bulk of the card is good, we can forgive it. Griffin is a bit hitter but he got TKO'd by Colby Covington in his debut. Max is technically awight which is much better than the sloppy Montano who is a tough scrapper but not much else.
WINNER-Max Griffin by Decision
Enrique Briones (16-5-1) +140 vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (23-1) -160
It was a moral victory for Briones to go the distance in a losing effort against Cody Garbrandt. Enrique has a nice jab and good leg kicks but he's been out of action for a year due to injuries.
"D'Silva" has the classic Jungle Fight inflated record so keep that in mind. DSDA trains with the Pitbull brothers in Brazil and is striker with power. Andrade is a big ole 135er and brute strength is his game.
This should mostly be a striking affair with Briones looking to counter the come-forward style of Andrade. Either guy could take this but Doug's brawny punches should look better to the judges.
WINNER-Douglas Andrade by Decision
Sam Alvey (28-8, 1) -200 vs. Alex Nicholson (7-2) +170
"Smile'n" Sam has been working to find his stride going 5-3 for the UFC and winning his last 2 by finishes. Alvey is a big hitter but he relies on that power and doesn't have much else to offer.
"The Spartan" can crack as well but has far less experience and will knowingly run into the arms of peril rather than execute a game plan. This will be his undoing as he plays into Sam's hand and eats a counter to finish his night.
WINNER-Sam Alvey by Rd.2 KO
Marco Polo Reyes (6-3) -165 vs. Jason Novelli (11-2) +145
Mexicos' "El Toro" has both of his UFC outings by knockout and is decently durable. MPR has terrible takedown defense and no grappling skills to speak of.
The flip side is that the "Flipside" lost his debut by knockout and isn't that impressive of a fighter.
Reyes should be able to wound Novelli early and Jason isn't long for this level of MMA. It should also be noted that the UFC continues to want their Mexican fighters to succeed to build that new fertile market and thus the favorable matchmaking.
WINNER-Marco Polo Reyes by Rd.1 TKO
Enrique Barzola (11-3-1) -600 vs. Chris Avila (5-3) +450
Kicking off the evening we see the return of the ultra-tough but limited brawler Avila who trains with the Brothers Diaz and has their look and style. Chris is long and lean and likes to scrap with wild abandon but he doesn't yet have the experience to back it up.
"El Fuerte" is a more nuanced fighter who has some nice kicks to go along with a jab and good takedowns. From there, Barzola can scramble or keep control while punishing foes.
Avila isn't ready for this level yet and was only brought in as a late replacement based upon who he trains with. The kid is tough but that isn't going to win him any decisions. Barzola does enough to win at the very least 2 rounds for the win.
WINNER-Enrique Barzola by Decision
Look, Ferguson has never been a smart man, but recently he's been going off the rails believing his own hype and thinking he's untouchable. Tony is spending too much time on social media battling perceived slights, and getting roasted when he tries to disrespect Michael Bisping. "El Cucuy" is an arrogant douche but you have to lend credit his 8 fight winning streak. Edson Barboza is the only contender on his resume and he struggled greatly against last minute debuting Lando Vannata while refusing to give his opponent any credit, but he is a talented striker who is willing to go for dangerous submissions and risk it all.
The former title holder was shocked, rocked, and TKO'd last July in a barrage of punching combinations from Eddie Alvarez. He may have lost his crown but Rafael has reinvented himself before, and now has the task of dusting himself off, and climbing that ladder yet again. RDA has become a powerful striker to go along with his stellar grappling prowess. It's interesting to note that dos Anjos left King's MMA for his own team and gym which is not usually a winning combination.
It's hard to pick the unlikable Ferguson based upon his attitude and willingness to take massive risks especially against a man as technical as dos Anjos. Tony pushes a good pace but then again so does Rafael. We keep thinking about the levels of competition here. Ferguson has not faced much in his long run while dos Anjos has a who's who of 155ers on his resume. We just don't believe in Tony and feel like this is the time when he makes a mistake and his rising star comes crashing down. Rafael takes the judges nod 3-2 in an exciting Main Event.
WINNER-Rafael dos Anjos by Decision
TUF 3 Latin America Finale
Martin Bravo (10-0) -105 vs. Claudio Puelles (7-1) -115
We cannot stress enough that we do not give a shit about any TUF show and their pointless finale matches. These "reality" shows were passé about 10 years ago and the UFC is still churning them out wasting our time with extended promotional packages for fighters nobody cares about dragging out our evening. Maybe these men will become good but this is not the way to introduce them by forcing them down our throats and pretending this is worthy of a Co-Main Event slot. Call us when you have accomplished something and deserve our attention.
Upset Pick WINNER-Martin Bravo by Decision?
Diego Sanchez (28-9) +230 vs. Marcin Held (22-4) -270
Diego is the TUF 1 alum who just won't die. This strange cat has a ton of wear on him after a long career and though 34 in life, he's around 55 in MMA years. Sanchez is always game for a war but he's left his wrestling skills far behind and instead relies on toughness and will. The clock is ticking on this guy who has gone 3-4 in the last 3 years (though the win over Ross Pearson was a travesty of justice so really he should be 2-5) not to mention he's an absolute moron.
The Pole is a longtime Bellator veteran who is getting his shot at the #1 MMA company. Marcin went 11-2 for the Viacom promotion and is a leg lock master though he can win with all the submission tricks and is a great grappler. Held doesn't have scary power standing but he is a capable boxer who can work in kicks as well.
Marcin is much more well versed in all of MMA than Diego who just wants to brawl though that does tend to impress idiot judges. Still, Held is far better, younger, and has much less wear on his body. We're sure Sanchez will be crazy and maybe even effective early, but the tide will turn and Marcin will use his entire arsenal to win on points to make a successful debut.
WINNER-Marcin Held by Decision
#8 Ricardo Lamas (16-5) -105 vs. #7 Charles Oliveira (21-6, 1) -115
When BJ Penn got injured Lamas opted for a fight sooner rather than later and acquired "Do Bronx." The book has been written on Ricardo and it's not going to change. The "Spanish Bully" is a punishing wrestler who can tussle with anyone. The rub is that he just can't beat the elite losing a title match against Jose Aldo, and falling short against perennial contenders Chad Mendes and Max Holloway.
Oliveira is a Jiu-Jitsu specialist with long limbs which he can use to attack from range with viciousness. The guy can work knees nicely in the clinch but if he gets you to the ground you are either going to tap or get controlled and hurt. Chuck has similarly struggled with the elite of the Featherweights though he was doing well against Max Holloway before a bizarre esophagus injury ended that evening.
This could be a very entertaining fight. Both men bring action but we like the skills of "Do Bronx" more. Charles won't be controlled on the mat by Ricardo and can touch him up as well. It's going to be close but Oliveira is trickier and has more to offer in a match we can't wait to see.
Upset Pick WINNER-Ricardo Lamas because fuck Chuck
* Update-Jesus fucking Christ Charles missed weight by a full damn weight class! Oliveira weighed in 10 lbs. over the limit and this is the 5th time he has failed to be a professional! This is absolutely unacceptable and major punishments should be given. Early reports say Lamas will accept the bout as he is undoubtedly hungry for a fight (and a paycheck) after the BJ Penn debacle and now this. Two bouts were lost on the Bellator 163 card because of missed weights as well. What is going on?
#8 Beneil Dariush (13-2) +115 vs. Rashid Magomedov (19-1) -135
We likes us some Dariush. The guy has got it all and has the great Kings MMA camp backing him up with the tutelage of master Rafael Cordeiro. Beneil is an amazing grappler with Jiu-Jitsu skills for days, and he has noticeably improved his boxing each time out. Dariush has good defense as well halting takedown attempts and avoiding strikes.
The Russian "Highlander" has only rattled off 12 wins in a row (4-0 in the UFC) and is a technical striker. Magomedov is never in the wrong place and uses a left kick to set up combinations very well. Rashid can wrestle but prefers to strike waiting for his opportunities.
The knock on Magomedov is that he is tentative at times and doesn't engage. That won't be an issue against the aggressive Dariush. Ben will be happy to bring the fight to him. Now, this bout could go either way but the percentages lean toward Dariush who has more experience against a higher level of opponent. This is the test to see just how good Rashid really is. It is quite possible that he passes this test but we just don't see it. An on point Beneil has more to offer and the greatest coach in MMA to plan his attack. We take Dariush in a potential "Fight of the Night" bout.
Upset Pick WINNER-Beniel Dariush by Decision
Alexa Grasso (8-0) -500 vs. Heather Jo Clark (7-5) +400
At 23 years of age, Grasso is getting her shot in the UFC. Alexa had 4 winning efforts in Invicta FC and is a capable kickboxer with ability and stamina. Heather is a test for the young prospect but one she is going to pass. Clark will need to grapple but if her past is any indication, she'll take a lot of punishment trying to do so. Alexa will run game here making a nice debut and quickly earning fans.
WINNER-Alexa Grasso by Decision
Erik Perez (16-6) -185 vs. Felipe Arantes (18-7-1, 2) +160
Arantes is a conundrum. He's a good wrestler, pretty aggressive, and has boxing skills, but he can't put them all together. The guy gets tunnel vision out there and just executes one facet of the game over and over again. Felipe is also known to play off his back too long trying for a finish, but losing the round in the process.
Perez has improved his footwork at Alliance MMA as one would suspect, and he's good not great but more reliable.
Arantes is just too good to keep shitting the bed. This is gonna be close and we'd by lying if we said we were confident in our pick, buuuuut, we like Felipe to use his aggression to win the judges nod if he doesn't sneak out a submission finish 1st.
Upset Pick WINNER-Felipe Arantes by Decision
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| The one true "Bad MoFo" |
Marco Beltran (8-3) +105 vs. Joe Soto -125
Original opponent Guido Cannetti was removed from the bout due to a PED violation from USADA and Soto steps in. Joey snapped a 3 fight skid in June defeating Chris Beal by RNC. Soto has been a bit of a disappointment since joining the UFC and he's trying to steal the lovely Joanna Calderwood's nickname which MMAFO does not appreciate! Joe is primarily a grappler but a pretty good one.
Beltran has over-achieved thus far in his UFC run winning all 3 of his outings. Marco is very durable and well rounded.
We smell the Upset yet again! Soto has been out muscled for most of his recent bouts and that won't change against Beltran. We also like Marco's ability to hurt Joe with strikes and feel this is one of those fighter on the way up (Beltran) meeting a fighter on the way down (Soto) kind of matches.
Upset Pick WINNER-Marco Beltran by Decision
Erick Montano (7-4) +140 vs. Max Griffin (12-3) -160
There's a whole lotta who gives a shit on this one but considering the bulk of the card is good, we can forgive it. Griffin is a bit hitter but he got TKO'd by Colby Covington in his debut. Max is technically awight which is much better than the sloppy Montano who is a tough scrapper but not much else.
WINNER-Max Griffin by Decision
Enrique Briones (16-5-1) +140 vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (23-1) -160
It was a moral victory for Briones to go the distance in a losing effort against Cody Garbrandt. Enrique has a nice jab and good leg kicks but he's been out of action for a year due to injuries.
"D'Silva" has the classic Jungle Fight inflated record so keep that in mind. DSDA trains with the Pitbull brothers in Brazil and is striker with power. Andrade is a big ole 135er and brute strength is his game.
This should mostly be a striking affair with Briones looking to counter the come-forward style of Andrade. Either guy could take this but Doug's brawny punches should look better to the judges.
WINNER-Douglas Andrade by Decision
Sam Alvey (28-8, 1) -200 vs. Alex Nicholson (7-2) +170
"Smile'n" Sam has been working to find his stride going 5-3 for the UFC and winning his last 2 by finishes. Alvey is a big hitter but he relies on that power and doesn't have much else to offer.
"The Spartan" can crack as well but has far less experience and will knowingly run into the arms of peril rather than execute a game plan. This will be his undoing as he plays into Sam's hand and eats a counter to finish his night.
WINNER-Sam Alvey by Rd.2 KO
Marco Polo Reyes (6-3) -165 vs. Jason Novelli (11-2) +145
Mexicos' "El Toro" has both of his UFC outings by knockout and is decently durable. MPR has terrible takedown defense and no grappling skills to speak of.
The flip side is that the "Flipside" lost his debut by knockout and isn't that impressive of a fighter.
Reyes should be able to wound Novelli early and Jason isn't long for this level of MMA. It should also be noted that the UFC continues to want their Mexican fighters to succeed to build that new fertile market and thus the favorable matchmaking.
WINNER-Marco Polo Reyes by Rd.1 TKO
Enrique Barzola (11-3-1) -600 vs. Chris Avila (5-3) +450
Kicking off the evening we see the return of the ultra-tough but limited brawler Avila who trains with the Brothers Diaz and has their look and style. Chris is long and lean and likes to scrap with wild abandon but he doesn't yet have the experience to back it up.
"El Fuerte" is a more nuanced fighter who has some nice kicks to go along with a jab and good takedowns. From there, Barzola can scramble or keep control while punishing foes.
Avila isn't ready for this level yet and was only brought in as a late replacement based upon who he trains with. The kid is tough but that isn't going to win him any decisions. Barzola does enough to win at the very least 2 rounds for the win.
WINNER-Enrique Barzola by Decision
Prelims on FOX Sports 1: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Prelims on UFC Fight Pass: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
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